Amped Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Western Atlantic ridge just isn't going to let it happen. Only Western NY and NNE get a good snowstorm on this run despite a nice high to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The primary changes are to horizontal resolution on both the operational and ensemble. It's really cool stuff. Topography and proximity to bodies of water and things like that will be much more accurate in model land. The current euro ensembles decrease resolution d10+. It could be one of the reasons that d11-15 are much more smoothed with progression of features than d5-10. That will be changing in March as well. The short story is the upgrades appear to be scoring higher than the current op and ensembles. Looks pretty good to me. There are other changes as well but I'm not smart enough to explain them. This is an excellent link: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Detailed+information+of+implementation+of+IFS+cycle+41r2 NWP models are simply amazing nowadays. Anyone who says they suck are disrespectful and have zero grasp on how advanced and incredibly complicated they are. This. As I stated in the other thread, we are still gaining over a day's lead time per decade in medium range skill. We are surpassing what people used to think was possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Some really bad runs tonight. Will Euro hold serve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Has anyone seen the GGEM? I'm still at 54. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 This. As I stated in the other thread, we are still gaining over a day's lead time per decade in medium range skill. We are surpassing what people used to think was possible. I've only been involved as an enthusiast since 2006 and what I've seen in the last decade is mind blowing. The improvements in the med and long range have been amazing. The day that ops are a locked in 10 day weather movie could happen but probably not until I've long departed this earth. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Has anyone seen the GGEM? I'm still at 54. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It's ugly as sin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I've only been involved as an enthusiast since 2006 and what I've seen in the last decade is mind blowing. The improvements in the med and long range have been amazing. The day that ops are a locked in 10 day weather movie could happen but probably not until I've long departed this earth. Lol. Bob, technology is making incredible leaps forward. You WILL see it - I GUARANTEE IT. And, the day you realize that - That storm will absolutely COLD SMOKE your BY. You can take THAT to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 that track never happens. Usually a low will slot to our west or east, particularly when there is a huge dome of cold air. In this case some sort of up the gut track is possible, but I'd still lean against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I asked earlier but don't think you caught it. What is SV showing for analogs for the EPS d11-15? I would think it would have some nice ones mixed in there. It was a good run. EPS 19700306 19580227 19570305 19990301 19810306 19830202 20000218 20010225 19770130 19690213 PARA EPS (below lists any not already shown) 20140226 20100210 GFS ENS 19700218 20100223 CMC ENS All covered above Here they all are mashed together: Mar 6 rollover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Not really that great in the analog dept. I'm kinda surprised. I'll just hug Feb 2010 and get a good night's sleep and look forward to march 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Usually a low will slot to our west or east, particularly when there is a huge dome of cold air. In this case some sort of up the gut track is possible, but I'd still lean against it. well I was talking the up the apps run which the last basically did in the end though I think it was probably a hopper in some ways. it looks fairly similar though on the gfs.. pattern to our north is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Hug the Para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Not really that great in the analog dept. I'm kinda surprised. I'll just hug Feb 2010 and get a good night's sleep and look forward to march 6th I jut realized the euro is at least an hour away. I should pack it in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Not really that great in the analog dept. I'm kinda surprised. I'll just hug Feb 2010 and get a good night's sleep and look forward to march 6th Looks like March is gonna be rockin' Mar 17 Mar 21 Seriously though.. the two periods I focused on a while back were Feb 15-25 and Mar 5-15... that was for a return of blocking so I won't necessarily claim victory in the first stretch though we may end up with transient blocking here and there and the pattern actually briefly had the right look during the snow before the low. But, regardless... possible we're just seeing the start of a lengthy blocking session show up. So we shouldn't necessarily be looking for immediate loving. I mean, you don't want to lose any time in March but something tells me we'll have our chances.. the storm train's going to keep on coming for a while I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 well I was talking the up the apps run which the last basically did in the end though I think it was probably a hopper in some ways. it looks fairly similar though on the gfs.. pattern to our north is similar. Agreed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Agreed... Problem is this time we have role reversals thus far. but we're still a bit outside range I'd truly believe in. If the Euro keeps the coastal track ahead it's hard to disregard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Problem is this time we have role reversals thus far. but we're still a bit outside range I'd truly believe in. If the Euro keeps the coastal track ahead it's hard to disregard. There is so much time left. We probably shouldn't be sweating this storm too hard yet in this pattern, but I love models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Looks like March is gonna be rockin' Mar 17 Mar 21 Seriously though.. the two periods I focused on a while back were Feb 15-25 and Mar 5-15... that was for a return of blocking so I won't necessarily claim victory in the first stretch though we may end up with transient blocking here and there and the pattern actually briefly had the right look during the snow before the low. But, regardless... possible we're just seeing the start of a lengthy blocking session show up. So we shouldn't necessarily be looking for immediate loving. I mean, you don't want to lose any time in March but something tells me we'll have our chances.. the storm train's going to keep on coming for a while I think. I agree about March and it's a month that "typically" offers few chances in our area if you can ignore the last 2 years. Cycles of all kinds can be extracted from history. For reasons beyond my comprehension it seems we are in a favorable late winter cycle. If we were staring down the barrel of pac zonal or worse to close Feb I would close the shades now. Instead were staring down the barrel of legit blocking on the means with a side order of the now "normal" epo ridge. It's been a weird run. Heck, last winter didn't even really start until Feb 14th but it's remembered fondly. March 10th is my imaginary dateline when I move on to spring thoughts and stop caring about snow. Unless it looks really ripe of course. Oddly that's happened two years in a row. Maybe 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Bad news, the EURO is phasing the N branch @ 144. older runs had that scooting out ahead to build HP behind it, this is gonna be a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Bad news, the EURO is phasing the N branch @ 144. older runs had that scooting out ahead to build HP behind it, this is gonna be a bad run. next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I agree with PSU though, the LR does look to offer a lot of possibilities. I'm not 100% giving up on this event, but even if it does end up being a fail job there is still a very good time period ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 There is some interesting feature though showing up tonight. The 00z GFS hinted at a wave right after the big low, and @ 162 hrs there is a potent shortwave dropping down from Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Check out the energy near North Dakota @ 168 hours. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 There could be a situation where the low we've been tracking ends up being a rain storm, but if it has enough spacing it could act as a 50/50 for any type of follow up shortwave. Let's see what the EURO does with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Very potent clipper shortwave around Missouri @ 186 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Gefs and eps ensembles still have enough spread to keep one foot in the door on this. Gefs is about a 50/50 split between up the coast or inland runners/cutters. Eps still favors the coast 60/40. After that still looks good. Bob not sure why you were down in that list of analogs I thought it was great. Several dates were either near or just before good periods. I know it's getting late to look out 10 days but some of the analogs were examples of late scores. 1999 and 1958 are in there. Feb 2010. Feb 83. 2014. Some years with close misses are in there too. I actually thought the list was about as positive as can be for this late. Not sure what we can even expect not like the list is going to be populated with all March 58 60 93 2014 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Looking over the 00Z ensembles compared to previous runs suggest that the GFS as well as the Canadian have settled down enough as to where we can follow them for guidance. GFS has had a day's worth (4 ensemble runs) that have been fairly consistent and the CMC has had a day and a half (3 runs). As far as the EPS? In my opinion it has been solid as a rock for the last several days and the 00Z did nothing to change my mind. Comparing all three on the latest run show that they are in fairly good agreement with pulling a low out of the gulf and at day 6 1/2 having it located on the south east coast. Of the three the Euro is the farthest south, with a stronger signal, having a low just off the S Carolina coast. The GEFS and the GEM have a somewhat weaker signal and have the low roughly situated off the N Carolina coast. On day 7 the EPS continues with the slower/southerly solution with the low situated over OBX and both the GEM and the GEFS have a low off the MD/Jersey shores. At day 7 1/2 the Euro has the low off the Jersey shore and both the GEFS and GEM have it NE of Cape Cod. As far as the track up the coast the Gem is the eastern outlier and the EPS is the western with the GEFS running up the middle. All and all the ensembles are now in fairly good agreement with a coastal low as well as a decent track with the only difference being the speed. Now if we can only get the temps to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Looking over the 00Z ensembles compared to previous runs suggest that the GFS as well as the Canadian have settled down enough as to where we can follow them for guidance. GFS has had a day's worth (4 ensemble runs) that have been fairly consistent and the CMC has had a day and a half (3 runs). As far as the EPS? In my opinion it has been solid as a rock for the last several days and the 00Z did nothing to change my mind. Comparing all three on the latest run show that they are in fairly good agreement with pulling a low out of the gulf and at day 6 1/2 having it located on the south east coast. Of the three the Euro is the farthest south, with a stronger signal, having a low just off the S Carolina coast. The GEFS and the GEM have a somewhat weaker signal and have the low roughly situated off the N Carolina coast. On day 7 the EPS continues with the slower/southerly solution with the low situated over OBX and both the GEM and the GEFS have a low off the MD/Jersey shores. At day 7 1/2 the Euro has the low off the Jersey shore and both the GEFS and GEM have it NE of Cape Cod. As far as the track up the coast the Gem is the eastern outlier and the EPS is the western with the GEFS running up the middle. All and all the ensembles are now in fairly good agreement with a coastal low as well as a decent track with the only difference being the speed. Now if we can only get the temps to cooperate. why are you always up so early? 6z gfs looks like rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS is all over the place. 06z just clips the DELMARVA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 6z gfs good track but where is snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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