clueless Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Saw in the NE forum that the para euro goes live in March, so I wonder if that means it's already better than the current op. March 8th? I think. Thoroughbreds only for the Europeans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 You can say it...it did. Welcome to the board. The happiest place on earth when the models show snow. Busy day in the office so I'm just catching up on the 6z, 12z, 18z runs. Comparing to yesterday's 18z GEFS when 6 tracked west of us, 4 track west of us (and 1 over DC) on today's 18Z GEFS. So a trend towards a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Saw in the NE forum that the para euro goes live in March, so I wonder if that means it's already better than the current op. honestly they don't usually diverge that much. Even today the differences for a 6 day threat are relatively minor and just noise within the suggested solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 honestly they don't usually diverge that much. Even today the differences for a 6 day threat are relatively minor and just noise within the suggested solution. What is the normal upgrade cycle for models? Or are most "upgrades" just minor tweaks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 What is the normal upgrade cycle for models? Or are most "upgrades" just minor tweaks? The primary changes are to horizontal resolution on both the operational and ensemble. It's really cool stuff. Topography and proximity to bodies of water and things like that will be much more accurate in model land. The current euro ensembles decrease resolution d10+. It could be one of the reasons that d11-15 are much more smoothed with progression of features than d5-10. That will be changing in March as well. The short story is the upgrades appear to be scoring higher than the current op and ensembles. Looks pretty good to me. There are other changes as well but I'm not smart enough to explain them. This is an excellent link: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Detailed+information+of+implementation+of+IFS+cycle+41r2 NWP models are simply amazing nowadays. Anyone who says they suck are disrespectful and have zero grasp on how advanced and incredibly complicated they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The primary changes are to horizontal resolution on both the operational and ensemble. It's really cool stuff. Topography and proximity to bodies of water and things like that will be much more accurate in model land. The current euro ensembles decrease resolution d10+. It could be one of the reasons that d11-15 are much more smoothed with progression of features than d5-10. That will be changing in March as well. The short story is the upgrades appear to be scoring higher than the current op and ensembles. Looks pretty good to me. There are other changes as well but I'm not smart enough to explain them. This is an excellent link: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Detailed+information+of+implementation+of+IFS+cycle+41r2 NWP models are simply amazing nowadays. Anyone who says they suck are disrespectful and have zero grasp on how advanced and incredibly complicated they are. Thanks. There is so much to look forward to wrt future upgrades. I just hope "the Americans" get the funding they need to keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Thanks. There is so much to look forward to wrt future upgrades. I just hope "the Americans" get the funding they need to keep up. Me too, I wonder how awesome a weather model we could build for the price of like ten f-35 fighter planes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That's because your only comparing it to the gfs which was equally awful. The U.K. And euro had the right idea. The gfs added confusion. Looking at the ggem just added more confusion not more clarity. More wrong answers never get you a right answer. No model is going to give you the right answer (except maybe today's 12z Euro), but a lot of "wrong" answers can get you close because their errors tend to cancel. That's why ensemble forecasting works so well. The GEFS has 21 members running at 50 km resolution, 20 of which are perturbed. I'm pretty sure that if you looked at any one member, it would be terrible, especially in the long range. But taken together, they are a more powerful long-range forecasting tool than the Euro op. And if you added even more lousy members, the ensemble would get even better. We have a lot of op runs to look at, most of which are far better than any of the GEFS members. Taken together, they make up a pretty good ensemble. Anyway, I'll hug the Euro for now. Looking forwards to the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The GEFS has 21 members running at 50 km resolution, 20 of which are perturbed. I'm pretty sure that if you looked at any one member, it would be terrible, especially in the long range. But taken together, they are a more powerful long-range forecasting tool than the Euro. I'm curious about your wording here -- are you comparing the GEFS to the Euro operational model? Doesn't the Euro have its own ensemble set that would, all else being equal, be the most powerful tool at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'm curious about your wording here -- are you comparing the GEFS to the Euro operational model? Doesn't the Euro have its own ensemble set that would, all else being equal, be the most powerful tool at this range? Yes, I was referring to the Euro op. I'll go back and edit the post to make that clear. The EPS (the Euro ensemble) is probably the most powerful tool at long range, followed by the NAEFS. And if you could combine them, it would be even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'm curious about your wording here -- are you comparing the GEFS to the Euro operational model? Doesn't the Euro have its own ensemble set that would, all else being equal, be the most powerful tool at this range? I have no input on the topic of discussion but just wanted to say.. Go Heels!! And the Nam is the best model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 It's better to just imagine it. I literally laughed out loud when I read that. So perfect haha Over under for the rest of winter. Dca: 6" iAd: 10" Bwi: 8" Leesburgh: 12" Westminster: 13" Northeast md: CRUSHED!!! I'm gonna weenie out right now, but I'll take the over for my neck of the woods (IAD). Why not.. The gefs moving a little more in the right direction has me feeling inspired this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Things like this is why this site needs a 'LIKE' button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Gfs through 120 has trended towards lower heights and colder. Regardless of where it goes, the early trends are continuing to be favorable. Every run seems to want to scrape a layer off my pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Gfs through 120 has trended towards lower heights and colder. Regardless of where it goes, the early trends are continuing to be favorable. Every run seems to want to scrape a layer off my pessimism. I was going to say the same thing. But I am only out to 117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The GFS has flakes into NOVA by Tuesday midday. But then quickly over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Raining in DC at 144 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The primary changes are to horizontal resolution on both the operational and ensemble. It's really cool stuff. Topography and proximity to bodies of water and things like that will be much more accurate in model land. The current euro ensembles decrease resolution d10+. It could be one of the reasons that d11-15 are much more smoothed with progression of features than d5-10. That will be changing in March as well. The short story is the upgrades appear to be scoring higher than the current op and ensembles. Looks pretty good to me. There are other changes as well but I'm not smart enough to explain them. This is an excellent link: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Detailed+information+of+implementation+of+IFS+cycle+41r2 NWP models are simply amazing nowadays. Anyone who says they suck are disrespectful and have zero grasp on how advanced and incredibly complicated they are. Here is a good question do the new models have an equation for enhanced weather dynamics caused by global warming / climate change or is this an impossibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 At 156 low is right over DC Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Looks like it accidentally ran a run prior to the Monday night low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 0z GFS = warm tropical rains. I'll hug the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 What a monster rain storm all the way up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Low over us and temps in the 40s/50s...time for bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Looks like it accidentally ran a run prior to the Monday night low. H5 is a hot mess. It's like a shell game. Pretty easy to hug the euro + ens even if it means I watch i81 get shut down while my lawn gets greener. Gfs run to run consistency has been a bit rough since the blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 that track never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Sigh. Tough look for the weenies. GGEM rolling in now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 H5 is a hot mess. It's like a shell game. Pretty easy to hug the euro + ens even if it means I watch i81 get shut down while my lawn gets greener. Gfs run to run consistency has been a bit rough since the blizz. I'm trying to spend less time on snow storms at this point so I didn't even look too close today. But the Euro has been persistent enough with the coastal track it's hard not to want to hug it for now even if the pattern says the GFS is probably closer. Para Euro had same thing but a day later it seemed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Here is a good question do the new models have an equation for enhanced weather dynamics caused by global warming / climate change or is this an impossibility? Of course nwp models are aware of the temperature of the planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'm trying to spend less time on snow storms at this point so I didn't even look too close today. But the Euro has been persistent enough with the coastal track it's hard not to want to hug it for now even if the pattern says the GFS is probably closer. Para Euro had same thing but a day later it seemed. I asked earlier but don't think you caught it. What is SV showing for analogs for the EPS d11-15? I would think it would have some nice ones mixed in there. It was a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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