mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The only nail biters I like are the ones where precip is the only concern. Borderline column/surface + my yard = notsogoodmostofthetime First of all, we all worry about something with these storms. Second, whether I'd rather worry about track or temps is sort of a false choice because track will dictate temps. Now, sometimes there isn't any cold air to speak of and we have no chance. But this one seems to be indicating that cold air will be close enough. Thus, the perfect track can overcome cold concerns, if not completely then for the most part (and I think that's what those of us around I95 are talking-for the most part since some rain/mix is likely even under the best scenario the way it looks now.) The other thing that is in the back of my mind is how the Para Euro was ots. If that is supposed to have a better resolution than the current operational, it makes sense that the operational came east of its 0Z run. I wonder if that means the next run of the Para is a bit west or still ots....oh the intrigue. In any event, it looks like I picked the wrong week to catch up on sleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Good run of the euro. Plenty of time for this to get sorted out. May very well trend colder with time which has been the trend lately. If the euro solution verifies, I agree it trends colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Are there any similarities in the setup to March 5 last year? That's the only rain-to-snow I remember that's ever worked out well for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I guess we're at that point in the year with a borderline event where the timing also becomes a bigger player (day/night). Will be interesting to see when the lull between the WAA and the main event sets up, when the moderate to heavy precip comes, and what that means for surface temperatures in marginal areas (where ever those may be). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 NCEP temperature forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The only nail biters I like are the ones where precip is the only concern. Borderline column/surface + my yard = notsogoodmostofthetime Calling winterwxlvr.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Are there any similarities in the setup to March 5 last year? That's the only rain-to-snow I remember that's ever worked out well for me. that was multiple waves along a pressing cold boundary. The last of which got us. This starts similar but seems to develop into a more mature and even cut off low eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 A bulk of the precip falls with Sfc temperatures between 33-36 for the cities, StormVista shows 2-4" for most of the coastal plain and the metros, 10" line is like IAD to Clarksburg to Parkton, NW Virginia and Eastern WV, along with Northern New Jersey NE through White Plains NY into Western Mass are the winners with 16-20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The only nail biters I like are the ones where precip is the only concern. Borderline column/surface + my yard = notsogoodmostofthetime Yep. We do precip much better than temps around here. If our average high temp in the winter was 32 degrees, we would average 60"+ of snow per year. Even with a retreating arctic airmass we found a way to get some snow. Temps first, precip 2nd...at least most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 FWIW, we can toss the JMA in the coastal camp for the 12z runs....or just toss it in the trash take your pick. Does appear to be a nice hit tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 FWIW, we can toss the JMA in the coastal camp for the 12z runs....or just toss it in the trash take your pick. Does appear to be a nice hit tho. The more hits the better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 FWIW, we can toss the JMA in the coastal camp for the 12z runs....or just toss it in the trash take your pick. Does appear to be a nice hit tho. Ha. JMA is even better than the Euro for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Heh, euro ens looking pretty damn good. I'm about to get sucked in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 Calling winterwxlvr.... LOL.........my skin crawled when he said that. Like Mitch says, we all have our own worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 If we get to make requests, I need this to speed up by 12 hours, or slow down by 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 12z EURO ENS are solid. I'm sucked in. Lets do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 Heh, euro ens looking pretty damn good. I'm about to get sucked in... It's about a 1000% increase from the 0z run......and if you want to have real fun, check out the difference in the control run on the 12z vs 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Heh, euro ens looking pretty damn good. I'm about to get sucked in... Come on in..the water is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 12z EURO ENS are solid. I'm sucked in. Lets do this. A FL panhandle - obx - cape cod mean track is an eye opener. Not terribly muddy either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Mean snowfall went from 1" to 3.5" at DCA for the period. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 Ha. JMA is even better than the Euro for the cities. I don't live in the city. I care more about the sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 Come on in..the water is warm. Fine.........the water is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Heh, euro ens looking pretty damn good. I'm about to get sucked in... 12z EURO ENS are solid. I'm sucked in. Lets do this. Now I feel even more confident that the Para will come west with a hit. Of course, I'm not saying which run it'll do that! I'll let you know when I have that nailed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 There is also at least 7 10"+ members for DC. 4 HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I can't remember the specific pattern in place, but I keep thinking back to March 2-3, 2014. We had a mild (above normal) Sunday, with rain that moved in that evening, cold air finally arrived overnight into Monday morning, and we ended up with a decent cold/snowy Monday. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/liveblog-live/liveblog/live-updates-march-winter-storm-hits-d-c-area/ Are there any similarities in the setup to March 5 last year? That's the only rain-to-snow I remember that's ever worked out well for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looking at the Euro ensem. I have to keep reminding myself that this is 6+ days out, But DAM, it's hard not to start to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 There is also at least 7 10"+ members for DC. 4 HECS Someone be so kind as to post the ensembles... Can't remember if that's allowed or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 E34...lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I don't live in the city. I care more about the sticks. I get it. Trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It's going to be a long week for some of you. lol I'm not jumping on anything for at least another couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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