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February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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Half of DC and BWI's precip is rain. Ginsu blade on the run. 

From what I've been reading the last couple pages it almost appears as if the setup may be similar to this past event other than the temperatures flipping prior to and following any coastal? The last time that happened the rain to snow idea was a lost cause, but each weather event is different. ;)

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its a bit better then 0z IMO along 95 temps.  Starts as frozen then for much of the event the rain snow line straddles right along 95 before ending as snow everywhere.  You don't have to go far west of the cities to stay all snow on this run.  Again details are stupid at this range, its close enough to keep us in the game, thats all. 

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Bob.. you said something that stuck with me.. when I-95/Fall line is played hard on models, these tend to be messy set ups!

 

I love my 20" on the snow maps, and encouraged for MBY ..

 

And I do not see why people think this is like the GFS?? It does not look the same to me. 

 

It's much better than the gfs irt to high pressure/boundary placement. Meaning, there's actually a high pressure pressing down from the north on the euro whereas the gfs has a 1,000 mile boundary stretching sw-ne up the coast. That itself is a huge difference. 

 

I thought the GEFS had some snowy solutions.

 

They did but the solid majority were rain storms and west tracks. 

 

 

Like I said earlier, I'm not trying to poo poo and deb anything. When I see encouraging signs with placement of features I won't hold back from saying something. The euro was a good run. Certainly the best of the 12z suite. But it was also right on the edge of being awful. That can't be overlooked or ignored. 

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Wow.... that is a sharp gradient between IAD and DCA

it happens, I had 8" living in westner Fairfax county in 2003 when DCA had nothing from a december storm.  There are some other examples I can think of off the top of my head in marginal temp events where IAD did a lot better then DCA.  Too far out to worry about that sharp edge yet.  Models cant even decide what time zone to put the storm yet.   

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This Euro run is 3C colder at 850 on average at BWI vs. last night's run, though with less precip as the storm isn't as wound up. Idk about everybody else, but I like these kind of nail-bitters.

 

The only nail biters I like are the ones where precip is the only concern. Borderline column/surface + my yard = notsogoodmostofthetime

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it happens, I had 8" living in westner Fairfax county in 2003 when DCA had nothing from a december storm.  There are some other examples I can think of off the top of my head in marginal temp events where IAD did a lot better then DCA.  Too far out to worry about that sharp edge yet.  Models cant even decide what time zone to put the storm yet.   

 

I'm consistently 5+ degrees colder out here in Herndon compared to DC.  Of course that's just surface temps, but that can be the difference in quite a few inches if it's 28 at Dulles, but 33 at DCA.

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