mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I hate to project but at 120 the front is being held up just a little north of where it was 0z and the southern system is a little northwest and stronger then it was 0z. Both bad trends. Still early though. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 141 cold has made more progress then on the GFS/GGEM for sure, 850 0 line down into central VA, but its also taking on the west to east boundary look instead of SW to NE of the last euro run and the storm is way NW of last run. Might be close but its definitely a trend west from 0z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I hate to project but at 120 the front is being held up just a little north of where it was 0z and the southern system is a little northwest and stronger then it was 0z. Both bad trends. Still early though. You may be right, but that cold air drainage is looking fairly good to me at 120. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Day 6 850's http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=6day&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Not a bad look to our north on the surface http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Day 6 500mb http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 the low is taking shape over northeast AL northwest GA, way northwest of last run, but at the same time the cold is still penetrating south into VA and WV as the precip approaches. The last few frams the low is still sliding east. Looks like it will be close but we probably start as some frozen given where its at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Day 6 500mb http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 You may be right, but that cold air drainage is looking fairly good to me at 120. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest it is, so far the low is well NW of last run, but the cold is also pushing more so its kind of a wash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 the low is taking shape over northeast AL northwest GA, way northwest of last run, but at the same time the cold is still penetrating south into VA and WV as the precip approaches. The last few frams the low is still sliding east. Looks like it will be close but we probably start as some frozen given where its at 144. it's so close that there's no way anyone can write it off this far out imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 storm over central GA, with kind of a front running wave off the coast, heavy precip into the area and the 850 line runs right through DC at 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 it does start to warm at BWI at 150 hrs. so it will probably be a hair warm (maybe more than a hair, we'll see) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 it's so close that there's no way anyone can write it off this far out imho true, and I know I am breaking my rule of looking at details on a long range op run, but at the same time I know many don't have euro access and want to know so... I figured I would throw it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Surface low is centered around Wilmington, NC at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looks a lot like the gfs at a quick glance (which is all I have time for). Edit: Maybe not judging by MN's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 some random model picture i found, looks okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 lol, it is sooooo close at BWI Wed at 6Z, but probably just a hair too warm unless the atmosphere is isothermal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looks a lot like the gfs at a quick glance (which is all I have time for). I have to disagree. Maybe some slight similarities, but a much diff result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 168 strung out low along the NC/SC coast, 850 runs right up 95, west of the cities getting DESTROYED CRUSHED PUMMELLED SMASHED THUMPED!!!!!!!**&*&&*(&(&* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Surface low is centered around Wilmington, NC at this time. USA_TMP_850mb_168.gif http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looks a lot like the gfs at a quick glance (which is all I have time for). Edit: Maybe not judging by MN's post. maybe shifted 200 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Day 7 850's http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=7day&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 168 strung out low along the NC/SC coast, 850 runs right up 95, west of the cities getting DESTROYED CRUSHED PUMMELLED SMASHED THUMPED!!!!!!!**&*&&*(&(&* that felt good didn't it...nice to be a weenie sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Metros get hit pretty good 174 and 180, big hit west of 95, decent ending in the cities. Better then 0z along 95 I think but its hard to tell witht he low resolution maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I approve of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It's a double slp structure at day 7....strange both off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Nice crush job for the BR/Shen Valley/WV and the good side of the fall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Good run of the euro. Plenty of time for this to get sorted out. May very well trend colder with time which has been the trend lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 that felt good didn't it...nice to be a weenie sometimes yea, figured why not run with it, and it is a pretty decent run considering the other 12z garbage we had to suffer through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Good run of the euro. Plenty of time for this to get sorted out. May very well trend colder with time which has been the trend lately. It's an inch away from a disaster anywhere east of 81. I like the run but I'm still pretty skeptical. Hopefully the ensembles start jumping on the colder/snowier idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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