Wonderdog Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The fact that a storm signal has been on the models for a couple of days at least is good. But we should all remember that the models this year have been very unreliable outside of 4 days or so. There are going to be inconsistencies for a couple of more days. There is nothing to fret about at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 perhaps this is the run we get clarity, just not the clarity we want. Agree with Matt this setup is flawed, the only way it works is if that front makes more progress. last few days it did, and it had more of a sw to ne orientation too. Todays runs so far the front stalls too far north and with more a west to east boundary. That really allows this to cut up west. Nothing to our north will prevent that so if the front stalls too soon and the boundary is not ideal it will run inland. That seems favored right now. Until I see the euro show such a solution I hold reservations though. As much as I hope your wrong, I think you might be right. Especially if the euro jumps towards a similar solution. Lotsa time tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 meanwhile 00z CMC and 12z CMC could not be more different at every layer of the atmosphere...it's like someone took the 00z solution, removed the various players from the NAMER map, put them into a box, shook the box, and then replaced them randomly on the map. what a great model Slightly banterish, but I believe that scenario where the model throws out every solution possible could help the mets actually get a better hold of the overall pattern. Yea it's better for everything to look the same, but at the same time if there is a last minute fluke that would be disastrous. Sometimes chaotic solutions are needed in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 both the GFS and GGEM shifted the frontal boundary left behind the day 5 storm to our north big time this run. GGEM from norfolk to Macon GA at 0z to never south of the Mason Dixon line 12z, so much that it went from OTS to Cutter in one run. GFS shifted it from South Central VA to Across DC as the storm gets started. Both are horrible trends for our area. Wherever that front sets up and stalls will be the boundary the storm develops on and starts to lift north. Once it begins to strengthen the low will push that boundary back to the NW a bit also so being right along the boundary as it gets going is no good. We want to see that front clear our area and set up along the coast if we want to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Definitely discouraging 12z runs....the storm down south is forming too fast. We wanted it to slow down & let the cold front from the northern branch clear to the coast 1st. If EURO goes well inland then we might be toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 GEFS mean track isnt that bad, its east of us, but the temps are torching and the mean snowfall shows absolutely nothing in our area and really not much of anything until you get into upstate PA and NY. It implies that the cold never makes it down, stalls it to our north like the op but without the west slp track. Still wont work. Track of the low will be irrelavent if that front stalls due north of us. BTW I know we had some solutions that had the cold pulling into the system during the storm before but that was with a more SW to NE boundary and cold to our west that could get wrapped in. Its a lot harder to get that to work if the cold is stalled to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Definitely discouraging 12z runs....the storm down south is forming too fast. We wanted it to slow down & let the cold front from the northern branch clear to the coast 1st. If EURO goes well inland then we might be toast. of course we are 7 days out and haven't look at ensembles...agree it looks less than good but toast might be stretch at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looking to late month and early March, it continues to impress. Regardless the outcome with the potential storm next week, we should have an extended window of opportunity into early March Mike posted this regarding the AO and the NAO. EPS cluster https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/699985704265388034 Likewise, some more hope for an extended period of - AO developing late this month and early March. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/699965703961456641?lang=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looks a lot like the March 94 fringing we got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looks a lot like the March 94 fringing we got If I remember correctly that early March 94 storm was 6-10" in our parts with a significant amount of sleet/ice after also. I dont know if I would call that a fringing but I guess if you compare it to the 20"+ to our northwest. I would take that kind of event again in a heartbeat and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 exactly had similar this go.. just need a pre-wave to score. The Euro setup is similar up north but with high heights near and north of the US/Canada border which would probably help keep it from cutting. But the lack of cold air hurts there too. It's not an impossible setup but we need some extra luck it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The 12z UKIE would likely come inland a bit too, you can see a piece near the Lakes looks ready to come down & phase. Looking for some hope from the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 12z gefs is actually a pretty decent improvement over 6z. It's a splattering of different looks but decidedly better in the snow dept. NW and elevation favored of course but this has looked that way since the beginning. Rain to snow is still my most optimistic outcome for the cities if we can get some luck with a bombing low to our east somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 had similar this go.. just need a pre-wave to score. The Euro setup is similar up north but with high heights near and north of the US/Canada border which would probably help keep it from cutting. But the lack of cold air hurts there too. It's not an impossible setup but we need some extra luck it seems. The euro worked last night (at least to some degree) because it made more progress with the boundary to the south and the storm began to form down over southern GA and really wound up along the SC coast. From there it cut due north but it got enough east latitude first to give us a chance. The GFS/GGEM today stall that boundary well to the NW and so the storm begins to organize over the miss valley and thats game over for us. Hopefully the Euro holds with a more east idea to the front. The GFS and GGEM ensembles are better then the ops with the track but still look kinda torchy on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 perhaps this is the run we get clarity, just not the clarity we want. Agree with Matt this setup is flawed, the only way it works is if that front makes more progress. last few days it did, and it had more of a sw to ne orientation too. Todays runs so far the front stalls too far north and with more a west to east boundary. That really allows this to cut up west. Nothing to our north will prevent that so if the front stalls too soon and the boundary is not ideal it will run inland. That seems favored right now. Until I see the euro show such a solution I hold reservations though. Agreed. Its all about where the front sets up. The GFS has a nice HP trying to move into position. It's just a little late for us. Still a long ways to go with this obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 12z gefs is actually a pretty decent improvement over 6z. It's a splattering of different looks but decidedly better in the snow dept. NW and elevation favored of course but this has looked that way since the beginning. Rain to snow is still my most optimistic outcome for the cities if we can get some luck with a bombing low to our east somehow. 12zgefssn.JPG WOW, amazing what using a different algorythm will do. i used a different site to view the GEFS and they showed abolutely no snow in our area during the time period. Then I checked past runs and it was similar. Could be a resolution thing or they are using a more conservative or maybe wrong algorythm but I apologize for my analysis of the GEFS above as a glance at wxbell shows it was wrong. I know I pick on JB a lot, mainly because I feel like he could be better if he cut out some of his crap, but I will give wxbell its due on one thing. They had a problem with their snow maps in the past and they responded and fixed them. This winter I have found that when I look at the surface and 850 and 540 thickness then overlay the qpf and estimate what the snow totals should be, their maps are pretty dead on now. Of course if the run is wrong its wrong, but their snow projections seem legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looking to late month and early March, it continues to impress. Regardless the outcome with the potential storm next week, we should have an extended window of opportunity into early March Mike posted this regarding the AO and the NAO. EPS cluster https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/699985704265388034 Likewise, some more hope for an extended period of - AO developing late this month and early March. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/699965703961456641?lang=en I was pretty excited by what I saw last night on the long range ensembles. MJO, EPO, AO, PNA, and now even the NAO seem to be lining up for a nice run. Throw in the SOI tanking one more time should get the STJ going. Time of year is starting to work against us but we might be able to squeak this in before the buzzer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The 12z UKIE would likely come inland a bit too, you can see a piece near the Lakes looks ready to come down & phase. Looking for some hope from the EURO. By inland a bit are we talking up the coastal plain or up the ohio valley? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 WOW, amazing what using a different algorythm will do. i used a different site to view the GEFS and they showed abolutely no snow in our area during the time period. Then I checked past runs and it was similar. Could be a resolution thing or they are using a more conservative or maybe wrong algorythm but I apologize for my analysis of the GEFS above as a glance at wxbell shows it was wrong. I know I pick on JB a lot, mainly because I feel like he could be better if he cut out some of his crap, but I will give wxbell its due on one thing. They had a problem with their snow maps in the past and they responded and fixed them. This winter I have found that when I look at the surface and 850 and 540 thickness then overlay the qpf and estimate what the snow totals should be, their maps are pretty dead on now. Of course if the run is wrong its wrong, but their snow projections seem legit. Wxbell seems to do MUCH better with the snowmaps. But they're still just snow maps and the gefs resolution isn't fine enough to really rely on them alone. The plot I posted was mostly just for comparison to the 6z run (which was much less enthusiastic) This plot is more telling. Big spread in tracks and timing but there is a cluster that runs the coast with more cold around. I would say a wetter/inland track seems to have the upper hand but the envelope is still pretty large. No sense trying to overthink things right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The euro worked last night (at least to some degree) because it made more progress with the boundary to the south and the storm began to form down over southern GA and really wound up along the SC coast. From there it cut due north but it got enough east latitude first to give us a chance. The GFS/GGEM today stall that boundary well to the NW and so the storm begins to organize over the miss valley and thats game over for us. Hopefully the Euro holds with a more east idea to the front. The GFS and GGEM ensembles are better then the ops with the track but still look kinda torchy on temps. There also looks like a small peice of energy diving down (per 12z GFS) with the frontal passage that actually pulls the front north, as the wave lifts into upstate ny/vt. Little details like this can change obviously, but my guess would be any leading energy that pulls on the frontal boundry would be counter productive to having the trough dig south and the boundary set up more towards the coast. Also, the +PNA is good but that ridge seems to relax at the wrong time and makes our digging trough too flimsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 There also looks like a small peice of energy diving down (per 12z GFS) with the frontal passage that actually pulls the front north, as the wave lifts into upstate ny/vt. Little details like this can change obviously, but my guess would be any leading energy that pulls on the frontal boundry would be counter productive to having the trough dig south and the boundary set up more towards the coast. Also, the +PNA is good but that ridge seems to relax at the wrong time and makes our digging trough too flimsy. Still far enough out that even if things converge today on an inland track that front could shift around in coming days. It was always a long shot. I remain bullish on the overall pattern after though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Still far enough out that even if things converge today on an inland track that front could shift around in coming days. It was always a long shot. I remain bullish on the overall pattern after though. The 12Z GFS actually has what appears to be some sort of "gradient event" (or whatever the term is) toward ~300+ hours, in fact. There's quite a cold high coming down from southern Canada and the northern U.S., bleeding into this area. At the same time, there's a disturbance running across the country. Surface looks cold, though 850 is borderline. Anyhow, it's way out there, but maybe in line with what you are saying for the pattern late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Still far enough out that even if things converge today on an inland track that front could shift around in coming days. It was always a long shot. I remain bullish on the overall pattern after though. You know HM was talking yesterday about several wave breaking events in the North Atlantic and how they could act as a - NAO/50 -50 Maybe something that does not even get factored in until the weekend. https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/699695467886673921 ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I remain bullish on the overall pattern after though. You and me both. Looking at this gefs panel I can just envision cold sprawling hp to our north and a storm tracking the desert SW-deep south-jump to the coast-destroy us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Still far enough out that even if things converge today on an inland track that front could shift around in coming days. It was always a long shot. I remain bullish on the overall pattern after though. Yea, good point. I did like the graphic frd posted. Seeing some higher heights up near Greenland is encouraging. I could be emphasizing this too much, but I really feel like a -NAO going into March is pretty necessary to get a decent sized mid-atlantic snow storm near or around 95 corridor. Our climo advantage starts to diminish and cold air becomes less bountiful.... Not like we had much of it anyways this year I will say on this upcoming 7-15 day period, that having an active southern jet and a +PNA at least makes modeling watching "eventful". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 You and me both. Looking at this gefs panel I can just envision cold sprawling hp to our north and a storm tracking the desert SW-deep south-jump to the coast-destroy us. gefsblock1.JPG every run the long range is looking better and better. That look there is getting close to drool worthy. The GEFS is finally starting to cave to the EPS on the whole kinda silly idea it had of blocking over the top and still ridging across the lower 48. It has done that a few times this winter. I have noticed that when the EPO/PNA combo break down we torch and the GEFS are right. But when the EPO/PNA ridge goes up the GEFS have been out to lunch in the long range. I was thinking a few days ago, man its starting to look good if only we could get the NAO to look less awful and now that last peice of the puzzle is falling into place. We could still strike out, but at least we have a 400 hitter at bat against a scrub pitcher witht he game on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Is it me, or is the Euro coming out slowly today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Day 4 Euro has some cold air on the move south http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=h96&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Cold air getting closer day 5 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I hate to project but at 120 the front is being held up just a little north of where it was 0z and the southern system is a little northwest and stronger then it was 0z. Both bad trends. Still early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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