BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Nothing more annoying than a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico poised to take a perfect track in February yet it's raining up to the Adirondacks. How is westhern NC a perfect track? My opinion is theres not much to stop this from being an inland runner with a lot of warm air out ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Just a painful, painful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Given the Euro's performance, not sure we should give a whole lot of credence run-to-run to anything else unless it starts to move towards one of the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 How is westhern NC a perfect track? My opinion is theres not much to stop this from being an inland runner with a lot of warm air out ahead... Yeah I was thinking it was going to head up the coast but you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Severe run! Serious storm the coast and coastal plain is going to be windy and crazy - flooding rains.. hate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 At least we get an inch of reach around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Given the Euro's performance, not sure we should give a whole lot of credence run-to-run to anything else unless it starts to move towards one of the others. Yes, but the Op Euro looks nothing like the Para or even the EPS mean. The individual EPS members are all over the place which doesn't lend much confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Nobody should really be worried at this point. I'm just pointing out how much a debacle that would be as modeled. But we all know how models are this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Name names. I haven't seen anybody do that. Perhaps I missed it. The 500 mb pattern indicates a colossal blockbuster system with insane moisture inflows. Sadly, that mother upper low goes neg-tilt too soon and we all get front end rain. Historically, in mid to late February as these giants get vertically stacked, cold air gets drawn in and many or most will get accumulating back end snows. Upper Maine had better tape two yard sticks together. On that Euro snow map from earlier my county goes from 2in E to 20in W...now that is a gradient...I am on the west side but if that is right then just 10 miles to my NW there is another 10 inches Hr 195 -> 201 on the 06z OP GFS Wow Yeah the track is good for DC metro but with no HP or cold air to begin with it looks like an elevation/NW favored event. So GFS looks REALLY wet for next week's system! 2"+ of liquid possible. Shows half rain and half snow on GFS for areas west of DC. Obviously less for DC. Not a pretty set up! Mountains get pummelled! I am NOT picking on any of these posters, we all do it, just saying that going back and forth with the details of rain snow line and exact slp track on a day 7 event isn't productive. I do it too. To me the biggest issue for us right now is getting that front further south before the storm. If that stalls out to our north its gonna be hard to get this to work. If we can get that front 100 miles further south we can win here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 Yep, said the same thing yesterday #atmosphericmemoryFTMFL So similar its spooky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 I am NOT picking on any of these posters, we all do it, just saying that going back and forth with the details of rain snow line and exact slp track on a day 7 event isn't productive. I do it too. To me the biggest issue for us right now is getting that front further south before the storm. If that stalls out to our north its gonna be hard to get this to work. If we can get that front 100 miles further south we can win here. To be fair though, I think most who post things like that are doing it the context of the model run they are commenting on. I don't think anybody actually ever believes any particular model run until we are about 48 hours or so out. This storm (potential) is going to drive a bunch of people nuts this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I am NOT picking on any of these posters, we all do it, just saying that going back and forth with the details of rain snow line and exact slp track on a day 7 event isn't productive. I do it too. To me the biggest issue for us right now is getting that front further south before the storm. If that stalls out to our north its gonna be hard to get this to work. If we can get that front 100 miles further south we can win here. You're right, but it's fun to analyze the models (even the details) when they are showing a big east coast storm. I think you,bob chill,ian,usedtobe,zwyts,mn transplant,wxusa, milleville, et al do a good job of balancing the run to run weenie analysis though. Overall the threads read pretty well for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 To be fair though, I think most who post things like that are doing it the context of the model run they are commenting on. I don't think anybody actually ever believes any particular model run until we are about 48 hours or so out. This storm (potential) is going to drive a bunch of people nuts this week. I agree... but until models start to lock in on the outcome they are going to bounce around every run. Last week the writing was on the way around day 4 when most of the ensembles and the 2 euro's/uk consolidated around the west track. We haven't seen that yet with the ensembles and ops still all over with track. So as of now details are impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 To be fair though, I think most who post things like that are doing it the context of the model run they are commenting on. I don't think anybody actually ever believes any particular model run until we are about 48 hours or so out. This storm (potential) is going to drive a bunch of people nuts this week. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The only sure thing this far out is run-to-run inconsistency. Relax and look for larger consistencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Too many people making declarative statements about a really murky day 7 threat. Yea if you only look at the op gfs and euro saying 81 and inland locations are favored is good. The para gfs/euro/euro control are all misses to the east and have a snowy solution for the immedate coast. Overall I would favor inland more due to the atlantic ridging and the lack of cold in front, but its not a lock and this could even slide to our east if it digs too much and starts out too far to the southeast. Once it starts to amplify it will cut north pretty hard though, that much seems evident on all the guidance. But they are all over with exact track, location of the high, how much cold we have to work with...the details are a mess. I am hopeful on this storm, we have a shot. I am VERY bullish on the period Feb 24-March 10 overall. Someone said earlier March is murky, yea its still 13 days out, but where the ensembles leave us at day 15 is not a pattern that looks to be breaking down. its a very stable pattern with blocking in all the right places and a trough solidly in the east. Could it break down quickly after, sure, but I am not banking on it. I think we have a 2 week window with multiple chances for something to pop. I think we get one more decent event before the winters over. The longwave pattern supports the storm running inland. I imagine the high coming in from the west will exert more influence than currently depicted, but the pattern is pretty bad for me..maybe not you and Winchester...But I'm not too enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Nobody should really be worried at this point. I'm just pointing out how much a debacle that would be as modeled. But we all know how models are this far out. Until it becomes a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 To be fair though, I think most who post things like that are doing it the context of the model run they are commenting on. I don't think anybody actually ever believes any particular model run until we are about 48 hours or so out. This storm (potential) is going to drive a bunch of people nuts this week. Lurkers will and they are still a part of this. Shout out to the lurkers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 CMC looks pretty similar to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Meh meh.PNG Did you draw in those extra closed contours? Odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Meh meh.PNG can we flip those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Did you draw in those extra closed contours? Odd They weren't supposed to be contours. I was pointing out the crappy Atlantic pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 can we flip those exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 They weren't supposed to be contours. I was pointing out the crappy Atlantic pattern As I mentioned a few comments ago, that ridge looks good for the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 exactly Still would be a pattern that would deliver cold, no? With a little luck, we could still score a good storm from that. We haven't been lucky the past couple of weeks. It could have been a whole lot better with just a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 CMC looks pretty similar to GFS perhaps this is the run we get clarity, just not the clarity we want. Agree with Matt this setup is flawed, the only way it works is if that front makes more progress. last few days it did, and it had more of a sw to ne orientation too. Todays runs so far the front stalls too far north and with more a west to east boundary. That really allows this to cut up west. Nothing to our north will prevent that so if the front stalls too soon and the boundary is not ideal it will run inland. That seems favored right now. Until I see the euro show such a solution I hold reservations though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Still would be a pattern that would deliver cold, no? With a little luck, we could still score a good storm from that. We haven't been lucky the past couple of weeks. It could have been a whole lot better with just a little. I was focusing on this storm. I haven't really looked beyond that. You could still do ok...Hell, we all could - The western ridge is robust - but the Atlantic pattern is hostile. Plus The sfc high to the NW comes a little too late, which might help offset it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 CMC looks pretty similar to GFS meanwhile 00z CMC and 12z CMC could not be more different at every layer of the atmosphere...it's like someone took the 00z solution, removed the various players from the NAMER map, put them into a box, shook the box, and then replaced them randomly on the map. what a great model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Still would be a pattern that would deliver cold, no? With a little luck, we could still score a good storm from that. We haven't been lucky the past couple of weeks. It could have been a whole lot better with just a little. Right there at that point its an ok pattern IF you have some luck. Later on, day 10-15 gets better at least across Canada. We still seem to be fighting the atlantic ridge but that looks to weaken towards day 15 on the ensembles finally. The day 6-10 pattern is flawed with both an atlantic ridge and still awful NAO domain. That means anything that amplifies to our south will try to cut and nothing will stop it. highs will slide out quickly. The two ways to get that to work is a wave system along a front stalled to our south, or get something to time up right where the baroclinic zone from the system before it pushes far enough east to get it to develop due south of us, then when it cuts almost due north we are good. Anything that starts to get going to the west of our latitude is going to cut west of us. Its not an awful pattern but its flawed. I like the look better heading past that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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