wxdude64 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Clown map! Anyone notice something 'funny' about that map? Look at some of the numbers.... 1.7 around Baltimore although in the 'pink' 6-8 range, Lynchburg posted as 0.4 although in the darker blue 3-5 range, Danville showing a 0.2 and in the lighter 1-2 range.....LOTS of transposed numbers there. Maybe that is why they call it a clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 06z para GFS has a coastal... but its too far east for any of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Anyone notice something 'funny' about that map? Look at some of the numbers.... 1.7 around Baltimore although in the 'pink' 6-8 range, Lynchburg posted as 0.4 although in the darker blue 3-5 range, Danville showing a 0.2 and in the lighter 1-2 range.....LOTS of transposed numbers there. Maybe that is why they call it a clown map. Just about to post this. Charlotte is also 3" but in the 1" contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 by their very nature clowns are silly...their maps must also be silly...its the only way. I am scared of clowns so I find the maps equally scary. Ummm. your Avatar? BANTER - sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I agree. Our recent memorable busts were all events without sufficient cold in place. It makes me leery of being optimistic about setups like this. Of course that's not to say it can't happen, but it doesn't inspire much confidence. The models are showing that the cold will be chasing the storm, but there's nothing to say that that can't change. The setup is nice, but the timing needs some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Am I missing something? 6z GFS wasn't that bad? Exactly. 7 days out, we are in good shape. Lots will change over the next few days - happy to be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 06z para GFS has a coastal... but its too far east for any of us good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Feb 14? I think that was the one that got me around 16" (Winchester maybe got a little more). If I'm not mistaken parts of I-95 did just as well, or even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Anyone notice something 'funny' about that map? Look at some of the numbers.... 1.7 around Baltimore although in the 'pink' 6-8 range, Lynchburg posted as 0.4 although in the darker blue 3-5 range, Danville showing a 0.2 and in the lighter 1-2 range.....LOTS of transposed numbers there. Maybe that is why they call it a clown map. Yes, noticed the 1.7 figure being outta place. Probably referring to a location along the very thin light blue area between the darker blue and the lavender. But the font size is just too big for that extremely thin light blue area. It does make you question the number at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The thing about the 6z para gfs is it shows 2 fairly strong coastal storms in quick succession. I'm not sure that's a likely outcome and don't see the run as offering anything more than confusion. It could be right but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 The thing about the 6z para gfs is it shows 2 fairly strong coastal storms in quick succession. I'm not sure that's a likely outcome and don't see the run as offering anything more than confusion. It could be right but I doubt it. Location specific........as always, but since we've entered into a temperature regime more favorable for snow, the misses have been too far east (Ravens storm, last Tuesday or whenever it was), and the systems have been too tightly spaced. I haven't looked at the 6z para, but from your description above, I could easily see it working out just that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 The thing about the 6z para gfs is it shows 2 fairly strong coastal storms in quick succession. I'm not sure that's a likely outcome and don't see the run as offering anything more than confusion. It could be right but I doubt it. Yeah, just looked at it. You're right, that's bang bang. 1st one too warm for snow, 2nd too far east. Goes without saying, too close together again. I think that first one would have a shot. Lot of high pressure to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The thing about the 6z para gfs is it shows 2 fairly strong coastal storms in quick succession. I'm not sure that's a likely outcome and don't see the run as offering anything more than confusion. It could be right but I doubt it. Idk if it's right, but we have been getting these vorts traveling in pairs of late for some strange reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Long time lurker - A few key changes that I already see on the 12z gfs - 1.) The key to the larger storm next week is to have the first storm amplify as much as possible to usher in the arctic high before the storm. You can clearly see the differences between the initial cold front between the 6z and 12z gfs at 108 hrs and 114 hrs, respectively. The more our initial storm amplifies, the farther south and east the cold air can push and the farther south and east our potential storm will be. I'll let the rest of the run play out to see if this holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Too many people making declarative statements about a really murky day 7 threat. Yea if you only look at the op gfs and euro saying 81 and inland locations are favored is good. The para gfs/euro/euro control are all misses to the east and have a snowy solution for the immedate coast. Overall I would favor inland more due to the atlantic ridging and the lack of cold in front, but its not a lock and this could even slide to our east if it digs too much and starts out too far to the southeast. Once it starts to amplify it will cut north pretty hard though, that much seems evident on all the guidance. But they are all over with exact track, location of the high, how much cold we have to work with...the details are a mess. I am hopeful on this storm, we have a shot. I am VERY bullish on the period Feb 24-March 10 overall. Someone said earlier March is murky, yea its still 13 days out, but where the ensembles leave us at day 15 is not a pattern that looks to be breaking down. its a very stable pattern with blocking in all the right places and a trough solidly in the east. Could it break down quickly after, sure, but I am not banking on it. I think we have a 2 week window with multiple chances for something to pop. I think we get one more decent event before the winters over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Lots of WAA precip wasted on the 12z GFS due to lack of cold/GLL. Hopefully when the storm comes up the coast it can cool us off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 Too many people making declarative statements about a really murky day 7 threat. Yea if you only look at the op gfs and euro saying 81 and inland locations are favored is good. The para gfs/euro/euro control are all misses to the east and have a snowy solution for the immedate coast. Overall I would favor inland more due to the atlantic ridging and the lack of cold in front, but its not a lock and this could even slide to our east if it digs too much and starts out too far to the southeast. Once it starts to amplify it will cut north pretty hard though, that much seems evident on all the guidance. But they are all over with exact track, location of the high, how much cold we have to work with...the details are a mess. I am hopeful on this storm, we have a shot. I am VERY bullish on the period Feb 24-March 10 overall. Someone said earlier March is murky, yea its still 13 days out, but where the ensembles leave us at day 15 is not a pattern that looks to be breaking down. its a very stable pattern with blocking in all the right places and a trough solidly in the east. Could it break down quickly after, sure, but I am not banking on it. I think we have a 2 week window with multiple chances for something to pop. I think we get one more decent event before the winters over. Name names. I haven't seen anybody do that. Perhaps I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Euro ensembles leave much to be desired. Mean snowfall is not that great with about 1" through day 7. I agree that things look much better beyond the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 GFS is a nice screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 GFS is a nice screwjob. Nothing more annoying than a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico poised to take a perfect track in February yet it's raining up to the Adirondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Too many people making declarative statements about a really murky day 7 threat. Yea if you only look at the op gfs and euro saying 81 and inland locations are favored is good. The para gfs/euro/euro control are all misses to the east and have a snowy solution for the immedate coast. Overall I would favor inland more due to the atlantic ridging and the lack of cold in front, but its not a lock and this could even slide to our east if it digs too much and starts out too far to the southeast. Once it starts to amplify it will cut north pretty hard though, that much seems evident on all the guidance. But they are all over with exact track, location of the high, how much cold we have to work with...the details are a mess. I am hopeful on this storm, we have a shot. I am VERY bullish on the period Feb 24-March 10 overall. Someone said earlier March is murky, yea its still 13 days out, but where the ensembles leave us at day 15 is not a pattern that looks to be breaking down. its a very stable pattern with blocking in all the right places and a trough solidly in the east. Could it break down quickly after, sure, but I am not banking on it. I think we have a 2 week window with multiple chances for something to pop. I think we get one more decent event before the winters over. What's more is that modeled pna ridge means business alone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Nothing more annoying than a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico poised to take a perfect track in February yet it's raining up to the Adirondacks. It's a beautiful storm taking shape...I'd give serious money for a nice stout 1040 high in Quebec at that moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It's a beautiful storm taking shape...I'd give serious money for a nice stout 1040 high in Quebec at that moment. Hug the euro if it shows a snowstorm and anything else that does if it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It's a beautiful storm taking shape...I'd give serious money for a nice stout 1040 high in Quebec at that moment. It's closed off at 177 with a lot of energy coming down the backside of the trough....I wonder if this offers us some CCB at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Hug the euro Closed h5 low on the GFS. If this happens as modeled on the GFS, it would be pretty painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Lots of WAA precip wasted on the 12z GFS due to lack of cold/GLL. Hopefully when the storm comes up the coast it can cool us off. if you want this to have a happy ending that front behind the low coming across to our north needs to make more progress south. It stalls right across our area. That's no good. Any storm from the south will push that boundary north some. It has to that waa is what creates the lift for the precip. So if we want to be in the game really we need that front to get down at least to central va if not southern. That's not a huge change needed for 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Closed h5 low on the GFS. If this happens as modeled on the GFS, it would be pretty painful. Ohio weenies are popping champagne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 GFS is a nice screwjob. Looks a little familiar doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looks a little familiar doesn't it? Yep, said the same thing yesterday #atmosphericmemoryFTMFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Ohio weenies are popping champagne Yeah, I would be too. Well, actually I wouldn't. 171 hours, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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