February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[winterymix]

The 500 mb pattern indicates a colossal blockbuster system with insane moisture inflows.

Sadly, that mother upper low goes neg-tilt too soon and we all get front end rain.

Historically, in mid to late February as these giants get vertically stacked, cold air gets drawn in and

many or most will get accumulating back end snows.

Upper Maine had better tape two yard sticks together.

[clskinsfan]

NW VIRGINIA IS DESTROTED ON THESE RUNS!

It is interesting that the euro and gfs both have a bomb that seems to target the same area. It really depends where the front ends up setting up. The odds that the position being modeled is correct are pretty slim. Its seems pretty clear that there will be a big coastal next week. That is really all we know at this point.

[psuhoffman]

The 500 mb pattern indicates a colossal blockbuster system with insane moisture inflows.

Sadly, that mother upper low goes neg-tilt too soon and we all get front end rain.

Historically, in mid to late February as these giants get vertically stacked, cold air gets drawn in and

many or most will get accumulating back end snows.

Upper Maine had better tape two yard sticks together.

yea if you assume the op gfs and euro are right. The para gfs and euro are both east. Gfs ots and euro crushes Delmarva nj and NYC east. Still way too much time to declare where gets what.

[EastCoast NPZ]

LOL I've been saying this for a few years now, but it hasn't happened yet.

 

Hasn't happened since March '13.

[Scraff]

NW VIRGINIA IS DESTROTED ON THESE RUNS!

It is interesting that the euro and gfs both have a bomb that seems to target the same area. It really depends where the front ends up setting up. The odds that the position being modeled is correct are pretty slim. Its seems pretty clear that there will be a big coastal next week. That is really all we know at this point.

Cmon man. You already know deep in your heart this will absolutely pummel NE MD right? ;-) Fun tracking days/weeks ahead.

[psuhoffman]

Hasn't happened since March '13.

Feb 14?

[BristowWx]

NW VIRGINIA IS DESTROTED ON THESE RUNS!

It is interesting that the euro and gfs both have a bomb that seems to target the same area. It really depends where the front ends up setting up. The odds that the position being modeled is correct are pretty slim. Its seems pretty clear that there will be a big coastal next week. That is really all we know at this point.

On that Euro snow map from earlier my county goes from 2in E to 20in W...now that is a gradient...I am on the west side but if that is right then just 10 miles to my NW there is another 10 inches

[Eskimo Joe]

Hr 195 -> 201 on the 06z OP GFS  Wow

[Ralph Wiggum]

00z GFS is rain. Gotta get that central Canada vortex out of the way like the 12z Euro, or we're toast.

OP models at this range are virtually useless. Im not saying toss them, they do have their applications. But trying to put a track on a storm system 7-days out using an OP model isn't a wise choice. ENS are recommended in this range imo.

[midatlanticweather]

Looking at the total precip output, you have to be jaw dropping at the GFS with close to 3" in the western Suburbs! Snow maps are picking up well on the warmth that will hinder totals until the temps cool enough for snow. Euro is colder from what I can tell with less precip than the GFS. Obviously mixing and or rain is hindering totals become a bigger problem as you head east. PURE model outputs, not really looking at the profiles or the pattern. I-95 and west get the snow and the fall line is very seriously played here so this is gonna be messy. 

 

The orographic effect is very prevalent! I think one spot south of Charlottesville shows 5.5" of liquid on GFS! =)

 

This is a pretty big deal I-81 and elevation. Think east of Mountains and higher terrain the obvious issues!

 

A storm seems pretty likely! Details are ridiculous at this point!

[Ralph Wiggum]

While everyone squabbles over every 50 mile wobble of the day 7 storm the real news is the coming window looks better and better each run. Eps by day 15 looks nice. High heights all across Canada from the epo to the nao domain and a strong trough signal in the east for day 15 centered to our south. Gefs has the high latitude blocking look but then somehow has higher heights across the conus also. Kinda weird given the look to the north but the gefs have been trying to do that all winter so I've started to ignore them when we're headed into -epo periods. Bottom line we have an extended window coming with a favorable pattern for a late season snow.

Agreed, bouncing from op run to op run at this range is not a wise choice. People will drive themselves nuts. The LR period after next week as we approach the end of the month looks really solid. Not sure about March yet, but Feb has nice teleconnections popping up which could bode well for cold and storminess right thru leap day (at least). 

[wxdude64]

Certainly looking like Ian's "Feb winter" call is a win. This winter has turned decent since mid Jan and one more good hit will increase that call. Agree on the model 'hopping', most are showing a storm, which this far out is a win, details will work themselves out as we get a little closer.

[stormtracker]

Am I missing something?  6z GFS wasn't that bad?

[Bob Chill]

Not sure 0z or 6z stuff showed additional clarity. I don't have anything to add. I think the least likely outcome is an all snow event for most of us. 2006 isn't a terrible analog for what can happen with a primarily +pna driven event. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But there's a stark difference with heights off eastern Canada into the Atlantic. Feb 06 was certainly helped with confluence to maximize a not so cold hp in a good spot. 

 

 

 

The modeled HP right now looks half decent but it's not well placed nor is any model showing a mechanism to lock it into place. Very much a timing event. 

 

There are also some conflicting signals as to whether this storm comes up in 1 piece or has a front running wave. I'd lean towards 1 piece with maybe elongated WAA out in front but that's just a guess. 

 

I think one of the better case scenarios is rain up front and a pasting with a well placed close off and bomb as the storm gains latitude. I'm still pretty pessimistic overall. 

[midatlanticweather]

Am I missing something?  6z GFS wasn't that bad?

Clown map! 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Certainly looking like Ian's "Feb winter" call is a win. This winter has turned decent since mid Jan and one more good hit will increase that call. Agree on the model 'hopping', most are showing a storm, which this far out is a win, details will work themselves out as we get a little closer.

Well.............I've had 2.25" on the month.  It has been fairly cold, but it's pretty lame from the snow standpoint.  Of course that's location dependent.  I don't think we are all going to have the same point of view about the winter, the month, or a particular storm.  People need to lay off the attempts to "tell" others what their opinion should be.  I'm not saying that you are doing this.

 

As Matt said a while back. this is a pretty savvy forum.  I don't think when people are discussing each model run that they are necessarily model hopping.  I still consider this as a fantasy more than reality.  I haven't looked at the 6z gefs, but before then there hasn't been much ens support for this anyway.  If this thing up and disappears on us, I don't think anybody will be all that shocked.

[rmcwahoo]

.9 in Richmond, near a foot in DC. That sounds about right

[wxdude64]

Well.............I've had 2.25" on the month.  It has been fairly cold, but it's pretty lame from the snow standpoint.  Of course that's location dependent.  I don't think we are all going to have the same point of view about the winter, the month, or a particular storm.  People need to lay off the attempts to "tell" others what their opinion should be.  I'm not saying that you are doing this.

 

As Matt said a while back. this is a pretty savvy forum.  I don't think when people are discussing each model run that they are necessarily model hopping.  I still consider this as a fantasy more than reality.  I haven't looked at the 6z gefs, but before then there hasn't been much ens support for this anyway.  If this thing up and disappears on us, I don't think anybody will be all that shocked.

Oh, I'll agree to that. However, with what you have said, you are probably still ahead of my seasonal snow total with the huge  Jan storm. This forum covers a good chunk of real estate from the ocean up into the mountains, so yes each location is different and some will jackpot while others whiff. BUT, overall so far this Feb has been a win for most locations and one more hit in the month would just clinch Ian's prediction is all I was saying. This is still days away, could go out to sea, could produce another monster, could, as you said, just disappear. But having several models showing something at same time is a positive.

[NinjaWarrior2]

GFS is rain to cement. DGEX is heavy, cold rain with a CAD signature, but Mid to Upper 30s. 0z Para Euro is just too Far East. 0z Para GFS was warm and weak/east. 06z Para GFS is still south but wetter and preety warm.

[RevWarReenactor]

.9 in Richmond, near a foot in DC. That sounds about right

 

Or a foot in DC and 2 inches in SE PA due to Cbay warmth. That ain't going to happen

[stormtracker]

Not sure 0z or 6z stuff showed additional clarity. I don't have anything to add. I think the least likely outcome is an all snow event for most of us. 2006 isn't a terrible analog for what can happen with a primarily +pna driven event. 

 

 

 

feb06.JPG

 

 

 

But there's a stark difference with heights off eastern Canada into the Atlantic. Feb 06 was certainly helped with confluence to maximize a not so cold hp in a good spot. 

 

 

 

The modeled HP right now looks half decent but it's not well placed nor is any model showing a mechanism to lock it into place. Very much a timing event. 

 

There are also some conflicting signals as to whether this storm comes up in 1 piece or has a front running wave. I'd lean towards 1 piece with maybe elongated WAA out in front but that's just a guess. 

 

I think one of the better case scenarios is rain up front and a pasting with a well placed close off and bomb as the storm gains latitude. I'm still pretty pessimistic overall. 

I wouldn't say least likely.  I'd say odds are about even that we'll have a bomb snowstorm plain rainstorm or what you described.   I'm pretty optimistic on this one.  

[Interstate]

Why is anyone arguing over snowfall amounts.  Let's just be happy there is a coastal at this point and not a runner.

[Warm Nose]

I think clown maps are silly at this range but as many have said be glad there is a decent agreement on a signature for a storm next week. The details will flip/flop significantly between now and then.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I think the LWX discussion is pretty good.  

 

BOTH GFS AND EURO BEGIN TO CARVE A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF
COAST STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE DIGGING THE TROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT HEADS EAST NORTHEAST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE OPS IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARDS US. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING WINTRY WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION. RIGHT NOW
COLD AIR APPEARS LACKING HOWEVER...SO ODDS OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM
ARE NOT HIGH.

 

Basically the models agree on the trough and that LP will form somewhere but without cold in place it's not a great bet that we get a winter storm.  Probably best to just keep it simple like this at this range.  

[BristowWx]

I think clown maps are silly at this range but as many have said be glad there is a decent agreement on a signature for a storm next week. The details will flip/flop significantly between now and then.

by their very nature clowns are silly...their maps must also be silly...its the only way.  I am scared of clowns so I find the maps equally scary. 

[mitchnick]

I wouldn't say least likely. I'd say odds are about even that we'll have a bomb snowstorm plain rainstorm or what you described. I'm pretty optimistic on this one.

The way I see it, the mean of the 2 best models, euro and para euro, would give us a great snowstorm. This is far from a lock, but I like the odds at this point. Of course, if everything changes then so would my opinion.

[NinjaWarrior2]

I can't be optimistic right now on this, we do better with precip chasing cold (like CAD events) vs cold chasing precip. It is hard to imagine not getting any rain from this based on Guidance right now (assuming GFS/Euro type track and precip). Regardless of Ensembles or blends of the Op and Para runs... but it's certainly not impossible, heh 0z Euro Control has a snowstorm from Charlotte to Raleigh to Williamsburg to Ocean City.

[wxdude64]

by their very nature clowns are silly...their maps must also be silly...its the only way.  I am scared of clowns so I find the maps equally scary. 

So how do you feel about clowns wearing clothing made of maps?

Sorry, that might be better in banter.....

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I can't be optimistic right now on this, we do better with precip chasing cold (like CAD events) vs cold chasing precip. It is hard to imagine not getting any rain from this based on Guidance right now (assuming GFS/Euro type track and precip). Regardless of Ensembles or blends of the Op and Para runs... but it's certainly not impossible, heh 0z Euro Control has a snowstorm from Charlotte to Raleigh to Williamsburg to Ocean City.

 

I agree.  Our recent memorable busts were all events without sufficient cold in place.  It makes me leery of being optimistic about setups like this.  Of course that's not to say it can't happen, but it doesn't inspire much confidence.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Oh, I'll agree to that. However, with what you have said, you are probably still ahead of my seasonal snow total with the huge  Jan storm. This forum covers a good chunk of real estate from the ocean up into the mountains, so yes each location is different and some will jackpot while others whiff. BUT, overall so far this Feb has been a win for most locations and one more hit in the month would just clinch Ian's prediction is all I was saying. This is still days away, could go out to sea, could produce another monster, could, as you said, just disappear. But having several models showing something at same time is a positive.

Oh, def. agree.  The window for the next two-three weeks looks good.  I hope we get a bit more lucky than we have.  We've missed a few recent chances just on bad timing.