February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[olafminesaw]

12z para gfs 

[nj2va]

Yeah the track is good for DC metro but with no HP  or cold air to begin with it looks like an elevation/NW favored event.  

 

Yeah, it's a great track for the cities but like you said no HP so its not frozen for us.  There's actually a weak low to start out north of the GL...all we need to do is replace that with a high.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

The Winchester gang is going to love the 18z GFS.

Yeah, cool fantasy.

[AlaskaETC]

Close, but no cigar.

[Wonderdog]

Close, but no cigar.

We don't want the cigar yet. This is my 1600th post, which occurred on Feb 16th. My first post was on Nov 16th, 2010. Wonder what that means.

[Scraff]

18Z GFS snowfall clown map not bad.  DC shafted with a few inches.  N/W 4-6-8 ish?  Plenty of time for better...or failure.  

[Amped]

I don't care if it snows again, I just want to see the PV  take as big an aarse whooping as yesterays actic airmass.

 

[midatlanticweather]

So GFS looks REALLY wet for next week's system! 2"+ of liquid possible. Shows half rain and half snow on GFS for areas west of DC. Obviously less for DC. Not a pretty set up! Mountains get pummelled! 

[showmethesnow]

18Z GEFS ensembles are suggesting we might be dealing with a GL low as the coastal comes up. 

[mitchnick]

18Z GEFS ensembles are suggesting we might be dealing with a GL low as the coastal comes up.

Speed it up by a day and you have the blizzard redux.

[Anyweather]

Speed it up by a day and you have the blizzard redux.

And its a full moon too!

[BristowWx]

No fantasy runs I guess. Right into the soup. Hope for 2-4...setting the bar late stage limbo low

[mitchnick]

12z para gfs

THAT is a thing of beauty. The absolute best case scenario. Basically, the 18z gfs but cold enough for almost all snow.

[Kat]

18Z GEFS ensembles are suggesting we might be dealing with a GL low as the coastal comes up.

Shocker

[BristowWx]

THAT is a thing of beauty. The absolute best case scenario. Basically, the 18z gfs but cold enough for almost all snow.

Much weaker low than 18z GFS. That set up on the regular GFS looks wonky anyway.

[gymengineer]

Much weaker low than 18z GFS. That set up on the regular GFS looks wonky anyway.

It's not just that it's weaker. It's almost a day earlier than the evolution shown on the Euro and the 6Z and 18Z GFS runs. 

[showmethesnow]

GFS ensembles over the last couple days have been somewhat inconsistent with some of the major features whereas the Euro has been generally solid. So until I see the Euro go into the crapper I can't get overly worked up one way or the other with the GFS, or the CMC for that matter.

[Bob Chill]

GEFS more aggressive but the EPS shifted more towards a -NAO developing. -AO is unanimous across guidance right now. I still think our better/best chance will be in the Feb 28-32nd range. 

[nj2va]

18z GEFS still has 6 members that track the low west of us. As I mentioned earlier, something to keep an eye on is a GL low, which a handful of GEFS members also show.

[WinterWxLuvr]

No fantasy runs I guess. Right into the soup. Hope for 2-4...setting the bar late stage limbo low

Depends on where you live...lol.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

GEFS more aggressive but the EPS shifted more towards a -NAO developing. -AO is unanimous across guidance right now. I still think our better/best chance will be in the Feb 28-32nd range. 

 

I'm in for a leap day time period storm!  However, much longer and the "storm after the storm" will end up being a tropical system!

 

Hard to get overly into the one next week just yet, maybe because we're on the heels of the Presidents' Day snow and it's still a week-plus out in time.  That, and the setup doesn't look overly ideal as you and others have pointed out.  I suppose it could work in one way or another, but cannot get hopes up right now.  That said, definitely well worth keeping an eye on for now.

 

The period beyond does look interesting, so we'll see if we can manage to score one last solid event before we're out.

 

Bob...I've read in earlier posts from a couple of people (including yourself) of the possibility of next week's event perhaps offering the chance of the rare rain-to-snow situation.  As in, we may be too warm here for the WAA snows, but as it wraps up more and the cold air gets more into place, we could get something decent with the CCB.  That is rare, but at least in a couple of model runs I've seen that scenario kind of play out.

 

It's not quite the same thing...but the storm last March was a snow-to-rain event as you may recall.  It was fairly warm the night before, a front went through, and there was a secondary wave that moved along the front through the day as much colder air filtered in.  Doesn't look like the situation next week would offer a "second wave" like that, so in that regard I think it's a bit different.  But a changeover to snow would be reminiscent of it, I think, and one way we can accomplish that.

[showmethesnow]

GEFS more aggressive but the EPS shifted more towards a -NAO developing. -AO is unanimous across guidance right now. I still think our better/best chance will be in the Feb 28-32nd range. 

Though with some flaws I actually liked the look on the 500's immediately after the coastal and would not be surprised to be tracking something in the 10-15 day range. 

[gymengineer]

I'm in for a leap day time period storm!  However, much longer and the "storm after the storm" will end up being a tropical system!

 

Hard to get overly into the one next week just yet, maybe because we're on the heels of the Presidents' Day snow and it's still a week-plus out in time.  That, and the setup doesn't look overly ideal as you and others have pointed out.  I suppose it could work in one way or another, but cannot get hopes up right now.  That said, definitely well worth keeping an eye on for now.

 

The period beyond does look interesting, so we'll see if we can manage to score one last solid event before we're out.

 

Bob...I've read in earlier posts from a couple of people (including yourself) of the possibility of next week's event perhaps offering the chance of the rare rain-to-snow situation.  As in, we may be too warm here for the WAA snows, but as it wraps up more and the cold air gets more into place, we could get something decent with the CCB.  That is rare, but at least in a couple of model runs I've seen that scenario kind of play out.

 

It's not quite the same thing...but the storm last March was a snow-to-rain event as you may recall.  It was fairly warm the night before, a front went through, and there was a secondary wave that moved along the front through the day as much colder air filtered in.  Doesn't look like the situation next week would offer a "second wave" like that, so in that regard I think it's a bit different.  But a changeover to snow would be reminiscent of it, I think, and one way we can accomplish that.

Were you in the area in 2/06? That may be the analogy you're looking for. Rain Saturday here changing to snow by late afternoon from a miller A that blasts the DC-Boston corridor. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/12-Feb-06-SurfaceMaps.html

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Were you in the area in 2/06? That may be the analogy you're looking for. Rain Saturday here changing to snow by late afternoon from a miller A that blasts the DC-Boston corridor. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/12-Feb-06-SurfaceMaps.html

 

Ah, yes...I do remember that one though couldn't recall the specifics of its evolution.  I guess I just had last year immediately on my mind.  But yeah, that one in Feb. 2006 was a rain to snow event here.  I was living in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of DC at the time, we got ~8" or so overnight into the next morning.  It was a nice event here, but much better as you went farther north and east (NYC got a blizzard out of it).  In some ways, that particular storm gets a bit "forgotten" I think, as it got relatively warm during the day right after the snow ended and the sun came out, and then it was in the 60s a few days later.  There's little else about that winter that was memorable, too.

[Bob Chill]

The things that I don't like about the coastal showing up is even with a good track we could have some serious problems. At least how it looks now. Historically we end up on the losing side when cold is moving to to meet a storm.

Also, if the storm tracks west there is no chance at a front end. Things can and will change as we move forward. I'd like to see it all come together just right but it's asking a lot.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

The things that I don't like about the coastal showing up is even with a good track we could have some serious problems. At least how it looks now. Historically we end up on the losing side when cold is moving to to meet a storm.

Also, if the storm tracks west there is no chance at a front end. Things can and will change as we move forward. I'd like to see it all come together just right but it's asking a lot.

 

Totally agree, which is why I'm not overly invested right now other than of course it's interesting to follow.  Maybe we can get lucky and make something out of an imperfect situation, who knows.  But as has been said, the period just beyond that could be even more worth keeping an eye on.  I know some are saying "yeah, yeah, but it's getting toward March then!" but it's a decent pattern from what I saw.  Just kind of too bad that a coastal is showing up next week right when the cold air is just coming in, and it's a bit tough to rely on the cold being fast enough before the low moves up.

[Bob Chill]

That 2006 storm basically saved a warm and boring winter. I remember it well. I got 14" IIRC and it didn't stick around long. It was the first big storm my younger twins experienced. I have a lot of pictures.

The only similarity is it was almost 100% +pna driven but with a pretty lame high pressure that broke right. If this storm has a high in the same position it will be 100% snow. The modeled high is actually pretty cold. If we can get it more north vs nw if us then it would work well.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

That 2006 storm basically saved a warm and boring winter. I remember it well. I got 14" IIRC and it didn't stick around long. It was the first big storm my younger twins experienced. I have a lot of pictures.

The only similarity is it was almost 100% +pna driven but with a pretty lame high pressure that broke right. If this storm has a high in the same position it will be 100% snow. The modeled high is actually pretty cold. If we can get it more north vs nw if us then it would work well.

 

Pretty much my sentiments on that winter and the storm.  Don't remember anything about December, January was a train wreck of warmth (similar to, but not quite as warm as, this past December's torch).  February was meh and warm, other than the one event.  Talk about a "one and done" season, for the most part!  I've seen some people want to say this winter is a relative fail because "all we got was one big storm".  Well, that's the judgement before the other day I guess, and maybe before the blast of very cold to Arctic air that lasted for several days.  And the big storm this year just happened to be on the historical level, plus it was colder than Feb. 2006.  We got many solidly cold days this year, even though we haven't had much in the way of events.  So I personally would not call this year a "bummer other than the one storm" kind of winter.  Especially since I really don't think we're quite done yet.

[mitchnick]

That 2006 storm basically saved a warm and boring winter. I remember it well. I got 14" IIRC and it didn't stick around long. It was the first big storm my younger twins experienced. I have a lot of pictures.

The only similarity is it was almost 100% +pna driven but with a pretty lame high pressure that broke right. If this storm has a high in the same position it will be 100% snow. The modeled high is actually pretty cold. If we can get it more north vs nw if us then it would work well.

I think that storm may have been the impetus for the 18z gfs "happy hour" slogan. There was an 18z run of the gfs that gave us a blizzard-type storm 120 hours out (as any good weenie, I still vividly remember those maps and the classic cbb.) Of course, the gfs lost it but brought it back and low and behold, it came through. You're right though, the 13" at BWI was gone fast, in about 3 days if memory serves me. The icing on a crapastic winter.

[HighStakes]

Totally agree, which is why I'm not overly invested right now other than of course it's interesting to follow.  Maybe we can get lucky and make something out of an imperfect situation, who knows.  But as has been said, the period just beyond that could be even more worth keeping an eye on.  I know some are saying "yeah, yeah, but it's getting toward March then!" but it's a decent pattern from what I saw.  Just kind of too bad that a coastal is showing up next week right when the cold air is just coming in, and it's a bit tough to rely on the cold being fast enough before the low moves up.

 

 

That 2006 storm basically saved a warm and boring winter. I remember it well. I got 14" IIRC and it didn't stick around long. It was the first big storm my younger twins experienced. I have a lot of pictures.

The only similarity is it was almost 100% +pna driven but with a pretty lame high pressure that broke right. If this storm has a high in the same position it will be 100% snow. The modeled high is actually pretty cold. If we can get it more north vs nw if us then it would work well.

Another system that comes to mind was 2/24/05. We had a pretty mild pattern leading up to the storm. The day before saw most areas reach the mid 40's for highs. If I remember correctly there was a decent high that pressed down just as the storm entered the region to save the day. The overall pattern did have blocking however the storm was a fast mover that underachieved. The storm was somewhat similar to the 2/06 storm but with just a much less impressive deform band. We may be able to get this set up to work.