Amped Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Nice PNA ridge, HP in ideal spot. Neutral/positive shortwave. You can see the tightening of isobars near the GOM where a low would likely be forming. Extrapolated the JMA would probably be a nice storm especially for SE. GFS sniffed out the January blizzard first, maybe it will do it again. Even the pattern is very uncertain at this point. Hard to even give a crap about the shortwave configuration which probably won't lock in for another 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 00z GFS took away the high and added a 50/50 ridge. Not a good trend even though the storm is pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The CMC looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 CMC is a casual 2 ft for you guys and 18+ DC-BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 CMC says this mediocre setup is a great setup why. Because I decided to randomly close of a 500mb low, trap it with a random shortwave and crush zone all of you for 36hrs. Hope it verifies, but good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Looks familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Didn't you guys just do this a month ago? Haha. Just another casual HECS, on the regular. (00z GGEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Didn't you guys just do this a month ago? Haha. Just another casual HECS, on the regular. (00z GGEM) The H5 setup last happened a lot more than a month ago. http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=1953&mm=11&dd=06&run=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The H5 setup last happened a lot more than a month ago. http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=1953&mm=11&dd=06&run=12 Oh, yeah, I know it's not a carbon copy or anything (the GGEM's depiction not being a Miller B, for one) as the H5 setup is not similar, but that's pretty much a benchmark surface low track for DC HECS storms, I believe (right near SBY). Just posting it since it's another HECS. You don't see those everyday, even on fantasy D8 model runs. In all seriousness, that period does seem to hold some potential for a big East Coast snowstorm, probably more so for you guys in the Mid-Atlantic and up I-95 than in my area. The EPS definitely seemed to have a signal at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Euro anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 What an absolute monster of a storm on the 00z GGEM and 6z GFS. Temp issues, but its close enough at this stage and we do have a HP showing up, albeit not as strong as was being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 What an absolute monster of a storm on the 00z GGEM and 6z GFS. Temp issues, but its close enough at this stage and we do have a HP showing up, albeit not as strong as was being shown. euro had a hint of a storm. The problem is what bob Chilly said. Thread the needle because we dont have cold air in place like the Jan blizzard. We will be coming back from a warm period. GFS is a great storm but its rain first and then it turns to snow...how many of those have we had. Its interesting and there is a signal though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Both the GEFS and GEPS show a signal for a storm, but temps are still an issue. Most members that have a storm show rain for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Both the GEFS and GEPS show a signal for a storm, but temps are still an issue. Most members that have a storm show rain for DC. Nice HP though and it really seems to slow it down and we're within 7 days. NAO seems to be trending down also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Nice HP though and it really seems to slow it down and we're within 7 days. NAO seems to be trending down also. Don't agree with the last part you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Don't agree with the last part you said. Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Why not?Because if you look at the ensemble means on the EPS and GEFS they all show a vortex over Greenland. Plus you also have a WAR which doesn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Because if you look at the ensemble means on the EPS and GEFS they all show a vortex over Greenland. Plus you also have a WAR which doesn't help. AO is going downhill though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The biggest flag I see at our latitude is lack of established cold. This storm comes up from the south which is good but the cold air is still pressing down as it approaches. The MSLP panels look good but mean 850's are a major flag. I'm not saying there isn't a chance but looking at mean track alone doesn't tell the whole story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The biggest flag I see at our latitude is lack of established cold. This storm comes up from the south which is good but the cold air is still pressing down as it approaches. The MSLP panels look good but mean 850's are a major flag. I'm not saying there isn't a chance but looking at mean track alone doesn't tell the whole story. Yup. I honestly don't feel like trying to thread the needle with a long track system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The biggest flag I see at our latitude is lack of established cold. This storm comes up from the south which is good but the cold air is still pressing down as it approaches. The MSLP panels look good but mean 850's are a major flag. I'm not saying there isn't a chance but looking at mean track alone doesn't tell the whole story. We will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yup. I honestly don't feel like trying to thread the needle with a long track system. I think the possibility of the rare rain to snow coastal is there. WAA could be all rain but flip to snow when the ccb gets going. Op model runs will only cause a joy/pain roller coaster for the balance of this week. Further north has a lot more to get excited about imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The biggest flag I see at our latitude is lack of established cold. This storm comes up from the south which is good but the cold air is still pressing down as it approaches. The MSLP panels look good but mean 850's are a major flag. I'm not saying there isn't a chance but looking at mean track alone doesn't tell the whole story. Was actually looking at that on the ensembles. Though the CMC and the GFS have shown improvements for a storm they have been somewhat erratic from run to run so I looked into the Euro which for the most part has been rock steady the last 4 runs. The Euro is actually somewhat encouraging because it has progressively shown higher pressures to the north as the storm moves up. Now whether that trend continues on future runs I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Judging by the mean and bagginess of the isobars it seems like there would be some cutters thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'm strictly looking at ensembles. They have a great storm signal and a lot of agreement in general but they also agree that a snow storm is not favored. I'm not trying to be a Deb or poo poo anything. I just can't ignore the obvious flags. Maybe we end up on the lucky side if there's a storm. I'm hoping for it as much as the next guy. But I'm not excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'm strictly looking at ensembles. They have a great storm signal and a lot of agreement in general but they also agree that a snow storm is not favored. I'm not trying to be a Deb or poo poo anything. I just can't ignore the obvious flags. Maybe we end up on the lucky side if there's a storm. I'm hoping for it as much as the next guy. But I'm not excited yet. euro para had a perfectly placed HP system but its 9 days out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'm strictly looking at ensembles. They have a great storm signal and a lot of agreement in general but they also agree that a snow storm is not favored. I'm not trying to be a Deb or poo poo anything. I just can't ignore the obvious flags. Maybe we end up on the lucky side if there's a storm. I'm hoping for it as much as the next guy. But I'm not excited yet. yeah - I have to say it's pretty rare a low pressure miller A system to move in tandem with a High to the north in a progressive pattern with no block. Usually these type of setups get worse for us as we get closer to the window,. - but I will keep the hope that a perfectly timed miller A could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I agree with the rest of you about the established cold. But if we were going to do well in bomb bringing in its own cold this is the setup for it. We dont have the NAO. But the MJO looks to be solidly into phase 7 heading towards 8. Thats a pretty good signal for a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'm strictly looking at ensembles. They have a great storm signal and a lot of agreement in general but they also agree that a snow storm is not favored. I'm not trying to be a Deb or poo poo anything. I just can't ignore the obvious flags. Maybe we end up on the lucky side if there's a storm. I'm hoping for it as much as the next guy. But I'm not excited yet. Both early March storms the last 2 years started out as prolonged period of rain that ended up very cold storms with significant snow. Haven'the looked close enough to to see if next week's set up is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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