Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 that's at least 564 'amped' references.. randy ain't that tasticThat's way too randytastic for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Ukie at 144 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Ukie at 144 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 UKIE.. get it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 UKIE.. get it right.oK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I don't think you could have made up more of a 180 degree flip than the GFS just did in the long range.. worthless as usual outside 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 looks like canada f'd it up too. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GEFS looks much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GEFS looks much betterSometimes, the gfs acts like just another ensemble member with a mind of its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Pretty hard core cold shot next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Pretty hard core cold shot next weekend...Yeah, I'm waiting to see if it is followed by the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Impressive blocking day 9. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016020600&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 0z EPS looks nice for the d10 storm potential. Looking at the mslp and the low locations, there is some spread as would be expected at long lead, but timing looks good and there is general agreement on low pressure tracking to our south under that sprawling high pressure to the north and emerging off the VA/NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Agreed...Nice to see EPS hold its ground in terms of timing and h5 looks pretty sweet.....better than 00zgefs. Roughly 3.5-4" on the mean for this period. About as good as it gets from this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 06z GFS has out storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 06z GFS has out storm again. Takes the primary into Ohio and develops a coastal. Miller B-ish. Verbatim the mid and low levels are warm. Long way to go. For now, EPS looks good. Hug it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Takes the primary into Ohio and develops a coastal. Miller B-ish. Verbatim the mid and low levels are warm. Long way to go. For now, EPS looks good. Hug it. Weird run. La la land anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 gfs showing 3 st weeks of snowfalls, interesting, continued cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GFS Ens mean is around 3.5" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro Para has the low around Nashville. Surface temps don't look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Lots of nice hits on the 0z EPS. Still favors N/W, but the storm is there. Plenty of time for details. E38 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro Para has the low around Nashville. Surface temps don't look great. it started snowing here with ground temp at 38, fell 4 degrees in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Takes the primary into Ohio and develops a coastal. Miller B-ish. Verbatim the mid and low levels are warm. Long way to go. For now, EPS looks good. Hug it. Eh, it's heavy wet snow and 32. I wouldn't say it's "warm", but it's a million hours away..and we know how the GFS is about low/mid level cold form this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Eh, it's heavy wet snow and 32. I wouldn't say it's "warm", but it's a million hours away..and we know how the GFS is about low/mid level cold form this far out. Yeah I meant warm in a relative sense...850s do go above 0c and surface is low to mid 30s for I-95 east. These details are meaningless obviously at this range, and on second look the secondary is in a decent place. With the right timing, more like EPS, the (primary)low wont get that far north. I want a miller A.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Way to early to be analyzing the rain snow line on op runs. The ensembles still look great. Both the gefs and eps are about as bullish as you can be at this range. Very similar to what they were showing at this range before jan 22. Actually this might be catching on a day or two sooner if anything. Remember a few op runs like the 18z gfs and that jma run saw it 10 days out but then lost it a run or two. Day 8 in is when it locked in on the gfs and day 7 on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GFS maybe trying to brew something up in the plains at 138hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Way to early to be analyzing the rain snow line on op runs. The ensembles still look great. Both the gefs and eps are about as bullish as you can be at this range. Very similar to what they were showing at this range before jan 22. Actually this might be catching on a day or two sooner if anything. Remember a few op runs like the 18z gfs and that jma run saw it 10 days out but then lost it a run or two. Day 8 in is when it locked in on the gfs and day 7 on the euro. Yes, but very different set up here. That was a Miller hybrid storm, this seems more like a classic B, which seems trickier to lock in, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yes, but very different set up here. That was a Miller hybrid storm, this seems more like a classic B, which seems trickier to lock in, no? Nothing is locked in at this point. My OP really had nothing to do with r/s line, but was an observation that the GFS seems to be leaning more towards a low tracking up into Ohio, with coastal redevelopment. The 0z EPS, specifically the mslp and member low locations, generally favor a more southerly track. Long, long way to go obviously, but the general favorable look is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The high iand 50/50 low are long gone before any precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The high iand 50/50 low are long gone before any precip moves in. Timing is critical because there really isnt any meaningful blocking over Greenland. We need that NF low to act s a quasi 50-50, while the big surface high over southern Canada is in an ideal spot. If the approaching sw is late, the NF low has swung up over Greenland and the HP to our north is shifting east, which opens the door for the low to come further north(to our west). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GFS looks awful again. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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