stormtracker Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 GFS is pretty adamant that we might have some serious potential D9-10. Was the Euro showing anything like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yeah, it's a crushing on the GFS. 6z had us at a mix, but this run holds the high in just long enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 This run took a step down with regards to the setup in Atlantic, so don't want to see that continue or we'll get a HP moving out into the Atlantic again, but damn there is def a signal for a storm in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 GFS is pretty adamant that we might have some serious potential D9-10. Was the Euro showing anything like this? Euro op doesn't have it. Just a northern stream shortwave trying to dig. Para euro has a couple lows running the boundary off the coast but nothing like the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 500MB at 9-10 looks like shortwave #2 wants to join #1 and turn #1 up the coast. Signal has been there for 3 days. Sure hope so. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 This doesn't include the leap day storm on the gfs. lol. GFS decided to show what happens with a perfect sync of shortwaves and progressive highs. Weenie run. Euro ensembles very weak sauce through d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 This doesn't include the leap day storm on the gfs. lol. GFS decided to show what happens with a perfect sync of shortwaves and progressive highs. Weenie run. Euro ensembles very weak sauce through d10. gfsweeniesout.JPG I'm mildly interested/excited for the period. Would be nice to have the European signaling as well. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm mildly interested/excited for the period. Would be nice to have the European signaling as well. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Some good activity showing up d11-15 in a general sense but not much before that. It's sort of like a repeat of the current pattern but better ridging in the west. I would think the first week of march is in play this year. The pna/epo combo probably has some legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Some good activity showing up d11-15 in a general sense but not much before that. It's sort of like a repeat of the current pattern but better ridging in the west. I would think the first week of march is in play this year. The pna/epo combo probably has some legs. I'm going to take back some of what I said here. EPS actually does have a coastal signal @ d10 and it's fairly strong for the lead. However, there aren't a lot of snowy solutions. Looks like temp issues or maybe a low to the NW causing some issues. On this MSLP plot you can see the area over WV indicates a possible mid level wrecker. 12z GEFS from today is pretty prominent for the lead time... The GEFS has a classic miller A track from FL to off of OBX to the benchmark. Maybe I am interested now...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The Highzenberg storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 another solid 10 day storm signal - in about 7 days we should know if temps will cooperate. globals have been doing an excellent job of setting up storm windows 10 days in advance this year. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 What gives the GFS storms some legs are that we should be in Phase 8 MJO, which is a very favorable phase for coastal storms. We'll see if the Euro comes around to the GFS like it did with the blizzard. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 What gives the GFS storms some legs are that we should be in Phase 8 MJO, which is a very favorable phase for coastal storms. We'll see if the Euro comes around to the GFS like it did with the blizzard. lol If we get hit with that coastal next week, we will indeed be a "snowtown". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12z Euro says???? Yay or Nay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12z Euro says???? Yay or Nay? Euro doesn't have anything but it really doesn't mean anything. We're going to have to wait a good 4-5 days before getting a better handle on where we're going. I think inside of d10 is too early considering we're entering a mild stretch. GEFS mean looks good but the solutions are a mix of rain and snow with rain being in the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 EPS panels look better for the d10 thing but it's a true needle thread irt amplification and lack of blocking. Ji will probably be posting about the euro control hecs later...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hours 186-204 look nice on 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hours 186-204 look nice on 18z GFS Literally was typing the same thing. LOL. Tasty for sure. Hope the Euro catches on... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hours 186-204 look nice on 18z GFS we are in the GFS wheel house...starting to lock in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 we are in the GFS wheel house...starting to lock in Until those wheels start to fall off, at least! But seriously, it is a decent looking setup going into the last part of the month. Good to see a storm signal there with hopefully some high pressure in the right place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Take that and call it a winter. That would put most of us at 150% or normal. Not bad after a 70 degree Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Day 7 beatdown on the GFS looks nice. That would be a fitting end to winter for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The 12z EPS signal for Day 10 is terrific. The Atlantic isn't ideal, but there is def a huge signal for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Para Euro at 12 Z tries at day 10. Not a great set up though with duel lows. One riding up the coast from the Gulf and another to the west running up into the lakes. Also has a high moving out sliding off the Maine coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Surprised Bob isn't more excited about the 12z EPS. The Atlantic isn't great but the signal for the storm is crazy for this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Para Euro at 12 Z tries at day 10. Not a great set up though with duel lows. One riding up the coast from the Gulf and another to the west running up into the lakes. Also has a high moving out sliding off the Maine coast. I uess the para would be changing to ☔ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The 12z EPS signal for Day 10 is terrific. The Atlantic isn't ideal, but there is def a huge signal for a storm. I wouldn't say its terrific, but its not a bad look. There is high pressure to the north and NW..not super strong, but at least its not low pressure over the lakes. No blocking to speak of, and higher heights in the 50-50 region...so need to time it right. There is potential, but a storm, should there be one, could just as easily track inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Surprised Bob isn't more excited about the 12z EPS. The Atlantic isn't great but the signal for the storm is crazy for this time frameI'm not going to get too invested in this one with the way the atlantic looks. Pure timing of amplication and a high moving lock step is hard to pull off and definitely not something that gets locked at long leads. All options are on the table. I don't think any particular solution is favored at this range. A big snow storm is less likely than something messy/wet/or nothing at all. Hopefully we get some some clarity by later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Just some pre-00z trash images.....12z JMA @ 192 hours, decent look. Just another model showing the signal. I have officially coined this storm 'The Signal' BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Nice PNA ridge, HP in ideal spot. Neutral/positive shortwave. You can see the tightening of isobars near the GOM where a low would likely be forming. Extrapolated the JMA would probably be a nice storm especially for SE. GFS sniffed out the January blizzard first, maybe it will do it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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