MacintoshPro Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Thanks Ian. I knew it was pretty rare but just twice In last 15 years even rarer. Better answer than from the guy who said "like last year" It's what makes 1994 so special when we were already near 0 at dark Sorry, didn't mean to be rude. Just to be clear, I wasn't trying to say that below 20 highs at DCA are common, just commenting on the absurdity of the arctic outbreaks we have had the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The projected epo ridge on the 00z EPS is pretty sick. EPS responding with a pretty cold look developing at the end of the run. Not a perfect setup for snow but I think we will have our chances if that look holds. The mean looks like strong cold highs would be nosing down into the central US with storms running underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The projected epo ridge on the 00z EPS is pretty sick. EPS responding with a pretty cold look developing at the end of the run. Not a perfect setup for snow but I think we will have our chances if that look holds. The mean looks like strong cold highs would be nosing down into the central US with storms running underneath. Mid Atlantic going out with a bang :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The projected epo ridge on the 00z EPS is pretty sick. EPS responding with a pretty cold look developing at the end of the run. Not a perfect setup for snow but I think we will have our chances if that look holds. The mean looks like strong cold highs would be nosing down into the central US with storms running underneath. once into late feb and March I don't worry about dry as much. Get cold down in here and that time of year you usually get something. At the least gradient type storms as the warmth tries to fight back a lot more that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Since the PD3 thing is getting pretty ugly thought I would look towards "Next". I cant post because its behind a paywall but the day 15 EPS from last night is anything but winters over... this is what they look like. Para euro ens look about the same and I can't see the precip or SLP but based on the H5 and 850's the para euro control run has a monster HECS type storm day 14-15 for our area. Yea I know...its unicorn time range but at least its not showing winter over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Not too in love with the looks ahead. Seems mainly a reload of the type pattern seeing now after break. Weeklies didn't offer too much to be excited about. Soon starting to battle the calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm going for the storm after the storm after the storm. After Tuesday's rainer (because that's what it will be) there is eventually a warm front that moves offshore, but then there are reinforcing highs that come down, along with a southern stream impulse. 18z GFS has that stay suppressed, but if the leading high over the Atlantic at hr 264 ends up further north - and I think it might, then the LP that it shows developing over the Gulf could also come north and do something on the coast. All wish casting of course, but I don't see much else before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 next cold blast will be short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS at 300 looking big. That track never happens tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS at 300 looking big. That track never happens tho. Not the same funny man. If I could have that presentation at 96 hours out I would take it in a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm going for the storm after the storm after the storm. After Tuesday's rainer (because that's what it will be) there is eventually a warm front that moves offshore, but then there are reinforcing highs that come down, along with a southern stream impulse. 18z GFS has that stay suppressed, but if the leading high over the Atlantic at hr 264 ends up further north - and I think it might, then the LP that it shows developing over the Gulf could also come north and do something on the coast. All wish casting of course, but I don't see much else before then. Just pointing out that the 12z GFS does exactly this, but too much so, so that the LP comes up the Blue Ridge. A big swing from 18z, which is fine at this range. I expect we'll see a variety of runners and suppressed solutions back and forth, but I'm still hopeful that we end up with a (snowy) compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 quick look at EPS last night suggested warm up is brief and we go back to a -EPO +PNA pattern. Atlantic side is only average but looks to become at least not hostile towards day 15. I still feel strongly with that epo look we get more legit threats Feb 25-march 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 last nights PARA Euro ensembles are really nice, by day 15 has the -EPO ridge on sterroids but also some ridging into Greenland. Looks like major EPO PNA ridge and slightly negative NAO. Trough over the east. Could do worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 last nights PARA Euro ensembles are really nice, by day 15 has the -EPO ridge on sterroids but also some ridging into Greenland. Looks like major EPO PNA ridge and slightly negative NAO. Trough over the east. Could do worse 12z eps is pretty brief with any warm up next week. D10 - 15 shows what is most likely another arctic shot thanks to the nasty epo ridge. It looks like a repeat of the current pattern. Lol Doesn't look like we are getting rid of the WAR anytime soon. Which is a bummer if it goes down like that. Maybe the nao flexes just enough to get some neg anoms to our NE. Either way it looks like a fairly significant late FEB cold shot is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 last nights PARA Euro ensembles are really nice, by day 15 has the -EPO ridge on sterroids but also some ridging into Greenland. Looks like major EPO PNA ridge and slightly negative NAO. Trough over the east. Could do worse GFS has the EPO but keeps a raging positive NAO and above normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nao had gone negative once this season. We got a becs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I do wish there was more sign of nao help. That's the one peice missing. I still think we could pull off a gradient type storm in this pattern or maybe we get the nao to cooperate just once as the mjo cycles through cold phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I do wish there was more sign of nao help. That's the one peice missing. I still think we could pull off a gradient type storm in this pattern or maybe we get the nao to cooperate just once as the mjo cycles through cold phases.The only reason why we had a blizzard was impressive AO blocking that broke down resulting in a classic Archambault event. We don't have any sign of similar blocking to come or a -NAO. Today's Euro MJO forecast has the MJO hitting a brick wall at Phase 8, then sinking toward the circle of death. If that MJO forecast holds, between that and no blocking, we're left with what? Cold/dry and warm/wet for the end of February. Short of a fluke or another SSW that does something other than send cold air down for a brief visit, I'm having a hard time believing that the new pattern, for lack of a better term, ends much differently than the 3 weeks since the blizzard. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The only reason why we had a blizzard was impressive AO blocking that broke down resulting in a classic Archambault event. We don't have any sign of similar blocking to come or a -NAO. Today's Euro MJO forecast has the MJO hitting a brick wall at Phase 8, then sinking toward the circle of death. If that MJO forecast holds, between that and no blocking, we're left with what? Cold/dry and warm/wet for the end of February. Short of a fluke or another SSW that does something other than send cold air down for a brief visit, I'm having a hard time believing that the new pattern, for lack of a better term, ends much differently than the 3 weeks since the blizzard. Just sayin'. I agree that the pattern we will likely get won't be perfect and probably similar to the current one. But that said the patter hasn't been awful. We have had a few near misses this year that were more luck then bad pattern. The trough couldn't have been better this week but that front runner really messed it up. I think it will remain a flawed pattern but one with opportunities to hit with some luck. We scored twice late last year with a -epo and no nao help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The pacific gets pretty good again in the LR. Nice EPO ridge builds back. Not much help on the Atlantic side...still have the persistent WA ridge and not much happening with blocking where we want it. As far as comparisons to last winter, big difference irt the PAC driving the pattern in a strong Nino vs neutral like last year. Still, could score a decent event or 2 with some good timing, but anything big and amped would probably be mild and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The pacific gets pretty good again in the LR. Nice EPO ridge builds back. Not much help on the Atlantic side...still have the persistent WA ridge and not much happening with blocking where we want it. As far as comparisons to last winter, big difference irt the PAC driving the pattern in a strong Nino vs neutral like last year. Still, could score a decent event or 2 with some good timing, but anything big and amped would probably be mild and wet. Maybe some Southern lows this time around, I still say there is potential the end of the month into early March. - AO may also trend more negative. The looks on the EPO and PNA are pretty aggressive looking out , and given that, we might have a chance. On a related note, I read that a true PV split favors more of a -NAO , and also believe I read that contrary to what I originally thought, SSWEs and true reversals at 10 mb , are more likely in a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Maybe some Southern lows this time around, I still say there is potential the end of the month into early March. - AO may also trend more negative. The looks on the EPO and PNA are pretty aggressive looking out , and given that, we might have a chance. On a related note, I read that a true PV split favors more of a -NAO , and also believe I read that contrary to what I originally thought, SSWEs and true reversals at 10 mb , are more likely in a La Nina. No expert on the stratospheric stuff, but the general idea is perturbation/weakening of the PV up top is one way to get a -AO. I think in general a persistent -AO favors development of a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z EPS looks cold days 10-15. Highest h5 height anomalies on the Atlantic side still in the WA to our NE, but might be a hint of higher heights showing up over GL. Probably a neutral NAO. Not a bad look at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z EPS looks cold days 10-15. Highest h5 height anomalies on the Atlantic side still in the WA to our NE, but might be a hint of higher heights showing up over GL. Probably a neutral NAO. Not a bad look at all. Won't be surprised by another extreme cold shot relative to averages during that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Won't be surprised by another extreme cold shot relative to averages during that time period. Yeah the PNA and especially the EPO ridge looks impressive. Should be well below average for a few days at least with that look. Hopefully we can also get a well timed, well placed sw as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 February 4th 1995 is the lead analog for day 8-14, if it means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 February 4th 1995 is the lead analog for day 8-14, if it means anything. 4 FEB 1995 started the coldest 5 day stretch of winter 94-95...which had featured warmth to record warmth for weeks upon weeks upon weeks up to that point. There was a brief but heavy snowfall of around 4-8" across the area on the 4th and then it got very cold. IAD bottomed out on the 6th (I believe) at -1F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Some monster storms on this mornings GFS run. The midwest blizzard next weekend is followed up by a big storm that passes just about perfect for us. Its way out there. But interesting to look at for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This thread has been dead since the pd storm was given its own thread. I guess everyone is either focused on that or thrown in the towel on winter. I'm not there yet but I am discouraged that atlantic ridge don't budge. I wasn't really counting on that becoming a permanent feature. I'm not ready to say it's over but I would like to see signs of that improving in the next few days. Otherwise we need to hope for something like last March with a wave riding along a front. Anything digging will cut in that pattern. Still time to see it change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This thread has been dead since the pd storm was given its own thread. I guess everyone is either focused on that or thrown in the towel on winter. I'm not there yet but I am discouraged that atlantic ridge don't budge. I wasn't really counting on that becoming a permanent feature. I'm not ready to say it's over but I would like to see signs of that improving in the next few days. Otherwise we need to hope for something like last March with a wave riding along a front. Anything digging will cut in that pattern. Still time to see it change Systems keep funneling down from the NW like last year when we were in a nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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