Ian Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 History says you flip to Nina after a strong nino but we are in a new era of warm oceans so I wouldn't bet on it. Trend has definitely been toward less Ninafication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 i was thinkikng the same thing. 94-95 was a fairly strong Nino if i remember and it birthed 95-96. In fact, thats my #1 analog next year. Bob start the thread! Lol. I'll start the thread once the proverbial fork is in for this winter. Could be next week. haha As long as we avoid a mod or strong nina I would think Enso in general would be a + ingredient. I suppose the WDI for the NAO is on our side as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 6z para gfs coming in with a euro'ish soluton with LP over Texarkana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This thread used to be a great resource on upcoming events. It went south quickly. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk started a new thread for the storm...this thread is now about 2016-2017 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47849-pd3-tracking-the-threat-of-the-presidents-day-storm-jan-15-16-2016/?p=3973049 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Happy sun angle season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Happy sun angle season! Ha. Last year laughed at sun angle season. We can do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 the Euro Para which has been domimating the Euro OP is a much snowier solution Very true and incredible scoring, look at that steady uptrend, very impressive. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/697295229813129216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Looks like the PV gets displaced and relocated later in the month, after the warm up. Could have a very favorable period late Feb and early March. Some indices and the MJO look rather stormy and cold. AO could go rather negative, no idea about the NAO. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/697134081130295296?lang=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Looks like the PV gets displaced and relocated later in the month, after the warm up. Could have a very favorable period late Feb and early March. Some indices and the MJO look rather stormy and cold. AO could go rather negative, no idea about the NAO. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/697134081130295296?lang=en Wasn't everyone talking about a SSW happening back in Jan 2012, and coming with it a huge blocking pattern with weeks of cold? While we did get a pretty good SSW, the rest didn't exactly happen as planned. I wouldn't put much faith in a SSW producing blocking and cold galore this year; would rather focus on other aspects and elements of the pattern than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Ha. Last year laughed at sun angle season. We can do this. Yeah, I never really got all that Sun angle stuff. I mean, sure the Sun'll quickly melt the snow afterwards, but what on earth does it have to do with when it's snowing with a thick cloud cover overhead, and frigid temps? Once it snows, the Sun doesn't really have much of an effect, unless it's at like a 70° angle, or there's a relatively thin cloud deck overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Wasn't everyone talking about a SSW happening back in Jan 2012, and coming with it a huge blocking pattern with weeks of cold? Well, we while we did get a pretty good SSW,the rest didn't exactly happen as planned. I wouldn't put much faith in a SSW producing blocking and cold galore this year; would rather focus on other aspects and elements of the pattern than that. PV will not split, but it will be displaced, and looks to move into a better, more favorable location for a - AO . That is still a positive. If this coincides later in the month and early March with the building ridge out West and the MJO going into phase 1 and 2 we may be in business. Just speculation but considering the time of the year at least there is another possible window of opportunity Considering we basically just missed three potential snowstorms. Let's see what happens after the warm up. We have to get the ducks lined up first and take it from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Stuff moved to banter. Fight there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Stuff moved to banter. Fight there Thanks, and apologies for some of my banter in response to a couple of comments, but yeah there have been some comments that just brought this thread down lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Wasn't everyone talking about a SSW happening back in Jan 2012, and coming with it a huge blocking pattern with weeks of cold? While we did get a pretty good SSW, the rest didn't exactly happen as planned. I wouldn't put much faith in a SSW producing blocking and cold galore this year; would rather focus on other aspects and elements of the pattern than that. right now, there is a SSW occurring and it's probably one of the reasons, if not the reason, for the PV visiting us briefly you can see it here on this 10mb map; it's not a split of the PV, just a displacement apparently, Cohen is suggesting another such displacement may be in the cards for the end of the month http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=a12&lng=eng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Thanks, and apologies for some of my banter in response to a couple of comments, but yeah there have been some comments that just brought this thread down lately. No worries. Would be fun to have another storm get in here and take advantage of any "great patterns" that are shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 right now, there is a SSW occurring and it's probably one of the reasons, if not the reason, for the PV visiting us briefly you can see it here on this 10mb map; it's not a split of the PV, just a displacement apparently, Cohen is suggesting another such displacement may be in the cards for the end of the month http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=a12&lng=eng Interesting, because whether or not his statement about any displacement is true...the longer range GFS/GEFS (not sure of the Euro?) has indicated another amplification of the flow and what could be some pretty good cold again getting into the last week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 right now, there is a SSW occurring and it's probably one of the reasons, if not the reason, for the PV visiting us briefly you can see it here on this 10mb map; it's not a split of the PV, just a displacement apparently, Cohen is suggesting another such displacement may be in the cards for the end of the month http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=a12&lng=eng Yes, I know the warming taking place is causing the upcoming cold that's about to happen, but I don't have much faith in it changing the pattern, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Yes, I know the warming taking place is causing the upcoming cold that's about to happen, but I don't have much faith in it changing the pattern, to be honest. Oh, I didn't say that. lol Frankly, nobody knows what any particular strat warming will do for/to us. Sometimes Europe gets the benefit, sometimes the US. And even if it's the US, it may not be in the east. Just gotta wait a little longer and see. IOW, it's no guarantee for anything, but just gives us some added hope something good might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Oh, I didn't say that. lol Frankly, nobody knows what any particular strat warming will do for/to us. Sometimes Europe gets the benefit, sometimes the US. And even if it's the US, it may not be in the east. Just gotta wait a little longer and see. IOW, it's no guarantee for anything, but just gives us some added hope something good might happen. The only strong signal we really have to work with right now in the LR is a big -epo ridge and a +pna. The rest looks so so at best. But it's the type of look that can dump good cold and that gets more and more important as we head into late Feb. Overall I'm not very impressed with anything but far from a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The only strong signal we really have to work with right now in the LR is a big -epo ridge and a +pna. The rest looks so so at best. But it's the type of look that can dump good cold and that gets more and more important as we head into late Feb. Overall I'm not very impressed with anything but far from a disaster. I'm numb to everything right now. Like I said in late January, I'll reassess come 2/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Interestingly the coldest Feb 850 sounding for this area prior to last year was in the strong Nino of 1958. Sfc hit 5 in DC on Feb 17. So.... don't let people say that it doesn't get cold in strong nino. https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/697451260270788608 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 crickets in here, Euro must have sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Bad model performances for last two events except for isolated areas Dca might not get above 20 on Saturday and been a while since that happened, anyone know when last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Bad model performances for last two events except for isolated areas Dca might not get above 20 on Sunday and been a while since that happened, anyone know when last? I think maybe last year But after that, I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I think maybe last year But after that, I'm not sure. Low 20s 3 times last feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Only got to 19 on 2014-01-22. 18 on 2009-01-16. Only two in 2000s in teens at DCA. Seems we'd need some luck this go as 850s are only super frigid Sat night into early sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The GFS go from a horrible looking pattern at 240hrs to a sweet looking pattern at 288hrs. It's a pretty slick ninja move.. It's split flow, +PNA -AO -EPO look. NAO is nuetral but the western Atlantic godzilla ridge got roundhouse kicked back to Africa this run. I like that pattern if the EPO can hold this time and of course, if it actually verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Very true and incredible scoring, look at that steady uptrend, very impressive. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/697295229813129216 Interesting graph there! Para only seems to me to outperform its current op about half the time looking at that. Clearly more variability with the para, but that's what the ecmwf phd scientists are for. Both sure score much better than the gfs. eta: variability for both actually look minimal with a second look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Interesting graph there! Para only seems to me to outperform its current op about half the time looking at that. Clearly more variability with the para, but that's what the ecmwf phd scientists are for. Both sure score much better than the gfs. eta: variability for both actually look minimal with a second look I believe Ryan at WeatherBell said it will take over on March 8 th, based on successful results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Thanks Ian. I knew it was pretty rare but just twice In last 15 years even rarer. Better answer than from the guy who said "like last year" It's what makes 1994 so special when we were already near 0 at dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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