snowfan Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 We had mild transitioning to marginal air in place before yesterday. We have a legit cold airmass in place before the next event. I'm just not buying how fast it's eroded on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Looking at the means towards the end of the run, looks like we get the EPO ridge back. No blocking in sight, and AO looks neutral, although if you look at the stratospheric plots, the PV is back to a consolidated ball of cold at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 We need something because so far Feb has only rocked me to sleep. And we are running short on time.Seeing as we're looking at a potential rainer a day after bitter cold...It might not be our month, lol That high pressure is a weakling (you'd think it would be stronger looking at how cold it is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 We had mild transitioning to marginal air in place before yesterday. We have a legit cold airmass in place before the next event. I'm just not buying how fast it's eroded on the models.That's what's confusing me as well. I mean, Bob Chill gave a great explanation as to why the models are showing what they're showing, but...Perhaps the exceptional cold is more supportive of a great front end (and perhaps an icy mixture to follow?) How does all that cold just disappear that quickly? Feels like timing is gonna be everything here, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 You just got 30" less than 3 weeks ago. It's not the amount; it's the frequency of being able to track a threat. We haven't had that many this year. We seem to forget that the LR modeling has not been good or accurate, for the most part. So when we hear about a "Pattern" being favorable in 10 days, it does cause some doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 That's what's confusing me as well. I mean, Bob Chill gave a great explanation as to why the models are showing what they're showing, but...Perhaps the exceptional cold is more supportive of a great front end (and perhaps an icy mixture to follow?) How does all that cold just disappear that quickly? Feels like timing is gonna be everything here, though. We had multiple arctic shots the last 2 years that were gone in 3 days. It's pretty common without a block to hold or a reinforcing high moving across the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 we have been talking about a rocking Feb for so long it was almost a foregone conclusion it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I actually like the look of the long range GFS this morning. Plenty of opportunities in the longer range for sure. And the cold seems to reload towards the end of the run. It may be transitional cold for the remainder of the winter. But that is fine if we can time something up with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 That's what's confusing me as well. I mean, Bob Chill gave a great explanation as to why the models are showing what they're showing, but...Perhaps the exceptional cold is more supportive of a great front end (and perhaps an icy mixture to follow?) How does all that cold just disappear that quickly? Feels like timing is gonna be everything here, though. I can remember a storm in either 93 or 94 that when I woke up that morning temp were in the single digits (with clouds). Precip started in the early morning, as sleet, with temps around 12F (as I recall), and by lunchtime it was simply rain - not freezing rain. Magnitude of the cold is not necessarily a reflection of its strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It's not the amount; it's the frequency of being able to track a threat. We haven't had that many this year. We seem to forget that the LR modeling has not been good or accurate, for the most part. So when we hear about a "Pattern" being favorable in 10 days, it does cause some doubt. One of the biggest storms ever just hit the region. It's February 10th. Anyone complaining looks silly right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Its going to be a long week lol... I am just hoping that we can get a decent thump of snow before changing over to rain, if we do so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 One of the biggest storms ever just hit the region. It's February 10th. Anyone complaining looks silly right now. I think it's the thrill of the chase for most on this forum. I'd much rather have a handful of legitimate threats during a winter than one gigantic one., if given the choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 00z GFS parallel is a miss out to sea but still drops some QPF... looks like some snow then shuts off to light rain/drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 DC hadn't had a 2" snow event in........to hear some of you guys tell it...........since the stone age. That was OK. Right? Nope. That sucked a giant pair. 10-11 pretty much stunk too. I went into this winter thinking warm, rainy, and a near shutout was quite possible. So for me (and nobody can tell me what to think), this winter was a big win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 No two winters are alike, but this time last year we had yet to experience the 2/14 mega squall, the 2/16 event, the 2/21 event that stayed snow a lot longer than forecast (this was a Saturday when the west side of 495 turned into a parking lot), snow the morning of 2/26, 3/5, the late March snow and the 3/1 ice storm that held on longer than anyone anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Check out the little follow up wave on the 00z PAR GFS....Has a HP in a good spot too. The EURO had something similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 EURO had something sort of similar....I like seeing the HP there The 6z GFS has a hint at it too, but it's just a flat wave. Just something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 the Euro Para which has been domimating the Euro OP is a much snowier solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 CFSv2 keeps ENSO in warm neutral or weak Nino into next fall. 4 years above normal snow here we come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 CFSv2 keeps ENSO in warm neutral or weak Nino into next fall. 4 years above normal snow here we come! What is the history of a situation like that? Do you see a cooling during the winter months in a situation like that or does it remain fairly steady? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 take out our 37 inch blizzard and its winter has sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 CFSv2 keeps ENSO in warm neutral or weak Nino into next fall. 4 years above normal snow here we come! guess its changed since i saw a graph showing la nina next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 CFSv2 keeps ENSO in warm neutral or weak Nino into next fall. 4 years above normal snow here we come! I've been wondering about that. I don't profess any skill whatsover in tracking enso beyond plumes and plots and such but having it hold its ground so deeply into winter raises doubts of a flip to a mod or strong nina. I'm sure someone who knows a lot more than me about it could explain why it's totally possible though. This SSTA plot is something we hope to see in Nov-Dec (sweet pdo!) but were basically in mid Feb now. I'd be totally fine with warm or cold neutral and a +PDO. That seems like a pretty generous Npac look in our parts. Looking at the PDO does raise confidence in a general +pna/-epo look well into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 we have been talking about a rocking Feb for so long it was almost a foregone conclusion it would be. a few had doubts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I dont know much about Enso either. But I do know back to back Nino's are pretty rare. And I dont think there has ever been a nino the year after a very strong Nino year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I've been wondering about that. I don't profess any skill whatsover in tracking enso beyond plumes and plots and such but having it hold its ground so deeply into winter raises doubts of a flip to a mod or strong nina. I'm sure someone who knows a lot more than me about it could explain why it's totally possible though. This SSTA plot is something we hope to see in Nov-Dec (sweet pdo!) but were basically in mid Feb now. I'd be totally fine with warm or cold neutral and a +PDO. That seems like a pretty generous Npac look in our parts. Looking at the PDO does raise confidence in a general +pna/-epo look well into March. I was convinced of a weak Nina a couple of months ago, and then the Nino started strengthening at the end of January (recall that was one of my concerns for Feb.) Now, if I had to make a call, I'd say neutral. That could change, of course, but I'm no longer certain of a Nina. OTOH, I always recall that one weak Nina winter after a lousy Nino and smile (95/96.) When I see this SSTA map of the CFS2 that goes out the farthest, not only does the ENSO give me a little faith about beating a Nina, but check out that SSTA in the Atlantic! If the warm/cold/warm combo has any legs, we're in good shape. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 a few had doubts Yep. Been a tough year to get a handle on. When the -AO established itself in Jan I was pretty much convinced it was going to be mostly negative for the balance of Feb. Definitely not playing out like that. Busted thoughts there. The NAO hasn't cooperated for so long that I've just given up on that one. We did take advantage of the one decent blocking period this winter so hard to complain there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I was convinced of a weak Nina a couple of months ago, and then the Nino started strengthening at the end of January (recall that was one of my concerns for Feb.) Now, if I had to make a call, I'd say neutral. That could change, of course, but I'm no longer certain of a Nina. OTOH, I always recall that one weak Nina winter after a lousy Nino and smile (95/96.) When I see this SSTA map of the CFS2 that goes out the farthest, not only does the ENSO give me a little faith about beating a Nina, but check out that SSTA in the Atlantic! If the warm/cold/warm combo has any legs, we're in good shape. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif i was thinkikng the same thing. 94-95 was a fairly strong Nino if i remember and it birthed 95-96. In fact, thats my #1 analog next year. Bob start the thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I've been wondering about that. I don't profess any skill whatsover in tracking enso beyond plumes and plots and such but having it hold its ground so deeply into winter raises doubts of a flip to a mod or strong nina. I'm sure someone who knows a lot more than me about it could explain why it's totally possible though. This SSTA plot is something we hope to see in Nov-Dec (sweet pdo!) but were basically in mid Feb now. I'd be totally fine with warm or cold neutral and a +PDO. That seems like a pretty generous Npac look in our parts. Looking at the PDO does raise confidence in a general +pna/-epo look well into March. We should get this over to the main Mega Nino thread and see what people share! VERY interesting! As far as rarely if ever seeing back to back Ninos.. we are in new times it seems! Getting epic storms and crazy snowy winters in non-favorable set ups! WHY NOT do this too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I was convinced of a weak Nina a couple of months ago, and then the Nino started strengthening at the end of January (recall that was one of my concerns for Feb.) Now, if I had to make a call, I'd say neutral. That could change, of course, but I'm no longer certain of a Nina. OTOH, I always recall that one weak Nina winter after a lousy Nino and smile (95/96.) When I see this SSTA map of the CFS2 that goes out the farthest, not only does the ENSO give me a little faith about beating a Nina, but check out that SSTA in the Atlantic! If the warm/cold/warm combo has any legs, we're in good shape. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif Looking back at the Oct ecmwf plumes it looks like pretty good verification where we are now. Ended up verifying on the high side early on this winter but settled right into the middle of the range now. Pretty accurate for 3 month leads. Jan plumes say we are neutral by July. Worth keeping a casual eye on as we track next winter starting next month. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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