stormtracker Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Unsurprisingly the gfs is moving quickly towards a euro type solution. I like the progression in this order instead of GOOD step down to OK step down to BAD. And we're inside of 7 days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 So it seems like the question of the week will be...Just how long is that cold air gonna hang around before it gets pushed out. Not gonna give up on it because of what happened Feb. 22nd last year (would like to know if there are any similarities in the setup) Feb 22nd didn't have a strong + height anomaly in the western atlantic that tucked into Canada and also had a solid -epo ridge in ak/nw Canada. In this case what we are seeing for now is a flatter ridge on the backside and sharper ridge on the front side of the trough. Unless that changes its a pretty bad analog. With that being said I do think we could get some snow out of this. But most likely won't be a cold 6-10 on south winds with no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Feb 22nd didn't have a strong + height anomaly in the western atlantic that tucked into Canada and also had a solid -epo ridge in ak/nw Canada. In this case what we are seeing for now is a flatter ridge on the backside and sharper ridge on the front side of the trough. Unless that changes its a pretty bad analog. With that being said I do think we could get some snow out of this. But most likely won't be a cold 6-10 on south winds with no rain. I see...So the odds of the models trending colder over the next few days are totally out the window yet, of course? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Feb 22nd didn't have a strong + height anomaly in the western atlantic that tucked into Canada and also had a solid -epo ridge in ak/nw Canada. In this case what we are seeing for now is a flatter ridge on the backside and sharper ridge on the front side of the trough. Unless that changes its a pretty bad analog. With that being said I do think we could get some snow out of this. But most likely won't be a cold 6-10 on south winds with no rain. with the 850 low closing off in the deep south - it causes wind shift in time to prevent the torching and is why both models kept 850 below freezing tonight. i really like the trends. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 UkMET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Heck Yeah Warm Cutter, next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 with the 850 low closing off in the deep south - it causes wind shift in time to prevent the torching and is why both models kept 850 below freezing tonight. i really like the trends. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Ah--That's the next thing this armchair met wants to know: What factors (like the one you mentioned) could come into play to impove the setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Ah--That's the next thing this armchair met wants to know: What factors (like the one you mentioned) could come into play to impove the setup By far the easiest thing to watch for is pressure levels to the north and west. Gfs is like 1012 and CMC is not much better. Ensemble mean across the board isnt encouraging either. Until that changes this will be a crappy setup for a good snow storm. Low track can only do so much when there is no cold source to feed off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 By far the easiest thing to watch for is pressure levels to the north and west. Gfs is like 1012 and CMC is not much better. Ensemble mean across the board isnt encouraging either. Until that changes this will be a crappy setup for a good snow storm. Low track can only do so much when there is no cold source to feed off of. my bar for a good snowstorm isnt very high after what happened today. saw a couple mangled flakes at work in se dc. even a cartopper would do the trick at this point. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Gefs mean is an overhead track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 my bar for a good snowstorm isnt very high after what happened today. saw a couple mangled flakes at work in se dc. even a cartopper would do the trick at this point. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk For me, bitter, single-digit cold followed by a storm that turns to rain the next day is worse than what we had today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro is a low visibility rain storm. Front end is between 15 and 30 minutes of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro is a low visibility rain storm. Front end is between 15 and 30 minutes of snow Nasty ice down my way. and a little more snow front side. Seems to be a strung out low then consolidates, but doesn't aide CAD at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 What is this energy diving down from Canada? http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 6z GFS looks to be slightly colder for next Tuesday but the southern storm just misses us to the SE. So some snow on Monday and hope for a better turn up the coast Tuesday. 500's to my untrained eye don't look disastrous either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 6z GFS looks to be slightly colder for next Tuesday but the southern storm just misses us to the SE. So some snow on Monday and hope for a better turn up the coast Tuesday. 500's to my untrained eye don't look disastrous either. 18z dgex yesterday looked similar, which is probably a bad thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 6z GFS looks to be slightly colder for next Tuesday but the southern storm just misses us to the SE. So some snow on Monday and hope for a better turn up the coast Tuesday. 500's to my untrained eye don't look disastrous either. Yeah, no HP to speak of though so if this thing did make a proper turn up the coast we might have temp issues although I guess the antecedent airmass is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The real problem with this system is the cold pattern is breaking down and a warm one is right on its heals. If it has any kind of chance for improvement snow wise, it's got to speed up, or it's ghost chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The LR 00z EPS looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The real problem with this system is the cold pattern is breaking down and a warm one is right on its heals. If it has any kind of chance for improvement snow wise, it's got to speed up, or it's ghost chasing. I know a lot in here might not have to deal with this issue, but I'd be a little worried about ice for the northern tier folks like myself for this one. The airmass ahead of the low will be really stout and the surfaces will be chilled. Even on the current look by the Euro, I think it's eroding the cold at the surface a little too quickly with the low track. The areas in the valleys like HGR could be a close call for a real mess on that look. Would much rather see the low come up the coast and give at least a shot of snow before seeing any changes to mix. The ensembles weren't too bad this evening. Still a ways to go, but under 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I know a lot in here might not have to deal with this issue, but I'd be a little worried about ice for the northern tier folks like myself for this one. The airmass ahead of the low will be really stout and the surfaces will be chilled. Even on the current look by the Euro, I think it's eroding the cold at the surface a little too quickly with the low track. The areas in the valleys like HGR could be a close call for a real mess on that look. Would much rather see the low come up the coast and give at least a shot of snow before seeing any changes to mix. The ensembles weren't too bad this evening. Still a ways to go, but under 7 days.This won't be a problem east of I95. Different world out your way when it comes to ice issues the way this is currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I'm just hoping for an bomb of a system. Some of the 6z GFS ensembles were absolute beasts. I'm always down for a road trip. The UKIE has been my favorite model over the last few weeks....it is extremely wrapped up for this next event. Maybe a big cutter would help change the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This won't be a problem east of I95. Different world out your way when it comes to ice issues the way this is currently modeled. Agreed. Was referring to some people on the board like Me, Mappy, Highstakes and a few others. BWI is either going to be snow or no in this setup. I'm at least encouraged to see the signal looking a bit more snowy than not, but it's not a slam dunk by any means. Will need to keep close tabs in the coming days. One things for sure, this upcoming cold shot is going to be nasty. I can see some spots north of 70 getting at or slightly below zero with the current 850 and 925 temps. Plus, trajectory of the cold is one that would allow for minimal moderation when moving in thanks to the latest snow cover across NYS and PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Agreed. Was referring to some people on the board like Me, Mappy, Highstakes and a few others. BWI is either going to be snow or no in this setup. I'm at least encouraged to see the signal looking a bit more snowy than not, but it's not a slam dunk by any means. Will need to keep close tabs in the coming days. One things for sure, this upcoming cold shot is going to be nasty. I can see some spots north of 70 getting at or slightly below zero with the current 850 and 925 temps. Plus, trajectory of the cold is one that would allow for minimal moderation when moving in thanks to the latest snow cover across NYS and PA. ugh. say it aint so, i hate ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I'm just hoping for an bomb of a system. Some of the 6z GFS ensembles were absolute beasts. I'm always down for a road trip. The UKIE has been my favorite model over the last few weeks....it is extremely wrapped up for this next event. Maybe a big cutter would help change the pattern? We need something because so far Feb has only rocked me to sleep. And we are running short on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 ugh. say it aint so, i hate ice. Same here. I'd rather not have to deal with it, but of course I chose my spot to live in ice hell out here. Right now it doesn't look to be a threat if you take the models verbatim, but it's something I'll be keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The real problem with this system is the cold pattern is breaking down and a warm one is right on its heals. If it has any kind of chance for improvement snow wise, it's got to speed up, or it's ghost chasing. If the last storm is any indication I think there is a good chance we see the shortwave and the establishment of the trough come in quicker then what the models now show. What I saw with the last system, in which the setup of the trough is very similar to what we are seeing now, is that in 8 days of model runs it progressively quickened those features to where it verified a day sooner, if not a touch more. And looking at the last 2 days of the Euro ensemble runs they have trended towards a somewhat quicker solution. Of course while a somewhat quicker solution would probably be beneficial I think if we were to see it verify a day quicker it could possibly bring its own headaches with the models potentially keying on other energy then what they are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Para euro is a good bit better than the op. A little slower with precip arrival but cold hangs on a little longer. 1-3" 95 and east 4-6" ffx-moco-hoco-balt 6-12" to the west with ridges/elevation favored. Big time rain though after the flip with total precip in the 1.5-2.2 range. And some icing concerns in the zones Millville already pointed out. 6z gefs more favorable in the cities than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Para euro is a good bit better than the op. A little slower with precip arrival but cold hangs on a little longer. 1-3" 95 and east 4-6" ffx-moco-hoco-balt 6-12" to the west with ridges/elevation favored. Big time rain though after the flip with total precip in the 1.5-2.2 range. And some icing concerns in the zones Millville already pointed out. 6z gefs more favorable in the cities than 0z. Gimme the 0z Para gfs run verbatim, and I'll call it a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Gimme the 0z Para gfs run verbatim, and I'll call it a season. I'm pretty sure the gfs op will end up moving towards the euro's general idea. GEFS is already there. Hopefully we see a trend over the next 3 days towards decent front end stuff. Setup is pretty good overall to not get shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I'm not buying how fast the models are pushing out the cold air. We've seen enough examples of cold air holding on longer than modeled.....even for areas along 95....for me to think that we could be looking at a longer period of frozen precip. Like Bob mentioned, the Euro para is better and gets the heavier snow closer. 10" in Frederick, 3" at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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