Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This one will lock in and not move. If it was an all snow set up (well actually, that happened 3 weeks ago, but still.....) I'm totally good with something on the front even if it just gets washed away. Who cares at this point. We need to add to the totals. I would like to see DC in the mid 20's on the year. The three year stretch will be a benchmark of a hot streak for years. Unless we make it 4 next year...only a month away before the winter of 16-17 thread starts. Weak nina (with blocking) comin up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Is it me or do the ensembles show something different everyday but they are always locked in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Is it me or do the ensembles show something different everyday but they are always locked in? I use the terms shot gun, splattering, all over the place, and take your pick with snow threats all the time. That doesn't apply today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I'm totally good with something on the front even if it just gets washed away. Who cares at this point. We need to add to the totals. I would like to see DC in the mid 20's on the year. The three year stretch will be a benchmark of a hot streak for years. Unless we make it 4 next year...only a month away before the winter of 16-17 thread starts. Weak nina (with blocking) comin up... I thought 3 wasnt doable. So I am not saying it again this year. Its 4 in a row or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Is it me or do the ensembles show something different everyday but they are always locked in? The Euro ENS have looked very similar in terms of upper level evolution (and pretty solid consensus on east of the BR going above 0 at 850). However, the resident airmass is bringing temperatures to single digits. I find it very hard to believe that cold air would be displaced at the surface as quickly as the operational and ensembles are showing (sans Canadian). During the Feb 22nd storm last year, I was progged to go above freezing by 7 PM; I made it to 32 degrees approximately 8 hours and 0.25" of ZR later than modeled. CAD/wedge modeling is just poor at this range. Clearly an all snow event seems unlikely east of the BR at this point, but we are still wayyy out there in model land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The wedge always wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 I thought 3 wasnt doable. So I am not saying it again this year. Its 4 in a row or bust. We are already at 4 here. 12-13 through 15-16, lowest is 33.5" for me I think I think that's above climo out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The Euro ENS have looked very similar in terms of upper level evolution (and pretty solid consensus on east of the BR going above 0 at 850). However, the resident airmass is bringing temperatures to single digits. I find it very hard to believe that cold air would be displaced at the surface as quickly as the operational and ensembles are showing (sans Canadian). During the Feb 22nd storm last year, I was progged to go above freezing by 7 PM; I made it to 32 degrees approximately 8 hours and 0.25" of ZR later than modeled. CAD/wedge modeling is just poor at this range. Clearly an all snow event seems unlikely east of the BR at this point, but we are still wayyy out there in model land. This is a great post. If the general idea does in fact happen, it could be a protracted snow-sleet-zr deal before losing the surface. Especially banked up to the blue ridge and westward. Valleys may have a very difficult time scouring if it gets going early enough. I'm rooting for a BIG storm even if it dumps lots of rain. A sub 980 overhead would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 We are already at 4 here. 12-13 through 15-16, lowest is 33.5" for me I think I think that's above climo out here. Me too. I've had this discussion with him before; he doesn't think he hit climo in '13. I use 26" as my climo here in the desert of Stephens City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The Euro ENS have looked very similar in terms of upper level evolution (and pretty solid consensus on east of the BR going above 0 at 850). However, the resident airmass is bringing temperatures to single digits. I find it very hard to believe that cold air would be displaced at the surface as quickly as the operational and ensembles are showing (sans Canadian). During the Feb 22nd storm last year, I was progged to go above freezing by 7 PM; I made it to 32 degrees approximately 8 hours and 0.25" of ZR later than modeled. That was last year. We've had another year of global warming since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Cant remember the date or the exact evolution but I received 8" of snow last year on a south wind that was blowing before the first flake fell. Rare, but the key was having a ridiculously cold airmass in front. This airmass that is on the way looks similar. ETA: Maybe the same storm NFL referenced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 We are already at 4 here. 12-13 through 15-16, lowest is 33.5" for me I think I think that's above climo out here. Yeah I missed climo by an inch in 13. But I could be wrong with my measurements. If so its now 5 in a row or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Me too. I've had this discussion with him before; he doesn't think he hit climo in '13. I use 26" as my climo here in the desert of Stephens City. I've always considered 30-35" as climo here. I feel comfortable saying 33 reached climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Cant remember the date or the exact evolution but I received 8" of snow last year on a south wind that was blowing before the first flake fell. Rare, but the key was having a ridiculously cold airmass in front. This airmass that is on the way looks similar. ETA: Maybe the same storm NFL referenced? I think it was a March event, I know it was bad because DCA basically got shutdown, they cannot operate at all with low VIS under a south wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I think it was a March event, I know it was bad because DCA basically got shutdown, they cannot operate at all with low VIS under a south wind. Nope, it was the Feb 22 event..... an inland runner that brought a widespread 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nope, it was the Feb 22 event..... an inland runner that brought a widespread 6-10" Yep. Most precip was done by the time the warmth hit. I remember snow blowing the driveway half way through and at the end, and at the end sweating and thinking it was so warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Anyone checking the GFS? An ice storm sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GFS is weak and out to sea like 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GFS is weak and out to sea like 12z. Good. Just the spot we want it to be at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Nope, it was the Feb 22 event..... an inland runner that brought a widespread 6-10" yep, that's the one. I remember it vividly how odd it looked seeing snow drifts on the opposite side of my roof than I normally see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The setup was awesome for PD3 a few days ago. It'll come back. I tell ya...it'll come back !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The setup was awesome for PD3 a few days ago. It'll come back. I tell ya...it'll come back !! Well, the Canadian and Euro have a more organized southern stream looking shortwave...whereas the GFS is more northern stream dominated from what I can tell, and it's weaker. Interesting contrast. I'd love to have a decent shortwave push into the cold air in place (but not too strong that it just lifts it out of the way quickly), get some nice overrunning snow or something. Even if we mix or change to sleet/ice. But that's kind of a bit of wishcasting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Um, anyone else think that the 18z GEFS low track on the mean looked good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Um, anyone else think that the 18z GEFS low track on the mean looked good? Saw that. Looks good to my untrained eye. What about the JMA. Pretty strong too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Um, anyone else think that the 18z GEFS low track on the mean looked good? Track of the low is good but the track of the high is terrible. Lots of rain on the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Um, anyone else think that the 18z GEFS low track on the mean looked good? Meteocentre doesn't have meteograms for the 18z GEFS, but their meteograms for the 12z ensembles appear to support the idea of at least some front-end snow. Taken together, that's a pretty strong signal at a long lead that we'll see some measurable snow out of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Unsurprisingly the gfs is moving quickly towards a euro type solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 GGEM is best case scenario. BIG hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Unsurprisingly the gfs is moving quickly towards a euro type solution.So it seems like the question of the week will be...Just how long is that cold air gonna hang around before it gets pushed out. Not gonna give up on it because of what happened Feb. 22nd last year (would like to know if there are any similarities in the setup) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 cmc and gfs tonight keep 850s below freezing throughout the event. 850 low tracks through deep south on both models. I am officially intrigued. and frankly i am not like some around here. i would take a 6" tainted event without a problem. interesting to see gfs and cmc going to a miller a look. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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