BTRWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 One heck of a coastal on the euro if we can stay cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 So we've got... GFS...a weaker looking storm that develops a bit offshore, but does give us some snow it appears and stays cold. ECMWF...a stronger storm, warms up quickly, has a GL type of low that the GFS did not really have. GGEM...pretty strong storm, looks like a good front-end and then ice/sleet(?). There's a GL low but a bit farther north than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 We need to all chip in and buy a 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 We need to all chip in and buy a 50/50. What's odd is that at least for awhile, it looked better than the 00Z result! In this one, I don't even know if we get as much front end snow before the 850s torch by some 20 degrees or so in a 24 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 We need to all chip in and buy a 50/50. Can we buy a block to go with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Even west of DC the surfae warms above freezing, I'd be leery of buying into that as long as the low stays over the bayy or points east. Models usually are OK at 850 but often have problems at the surface. models have a bias of getting rid of the surface temps too fast. Looks like a pretty serious snow/ice storm for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 What's odd is that at least for awhile, it looked better than the 00Z result! In this one, I don't even know if we get as much front end snow before the 850s torch by some 20 degrees or so in a 24 hour period. Once that high gets off the coast like that it's straight ocean air coming in. It still has to modify of course but the high is in a really bad spot unless another weaker high is sliding across to the N. We're a long ways out to worry much either way. It's not a good clean snowstorm pattern at all though. That's unanimous on ens. The quicker the shortwave can come in and attack the cold air the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Once that high gets off the coast like that it's straight ocean air coming in. It still has to modify of course but the high is in a really bad spot unless another weaker high is sliding across to the N. We're a long ways out to worry much either way. It's not a good clean snowstorm pattern at all though. That's unanimous on ens. The quicker the shortwave can come in and attack the cold air the better. Yes. We are kind of dealing with the pattern starting to (temporarily) relax right around that time. The Canadian had a better solution for us, it appears to me. Maybe I'll hug that for now, haha! The GFS actually sort of did what you were saying about a quicker shortwave, or at least it was weaker, and we don't torch like the Euro shows. Of course, it's not a lot of snow either as depicted, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Once that high gets off the coast like that it's straight ocean air coming in. It still has to modify of course but the high is in a really bad spot unless another weaker high is sliding across to the N. We're a long ways out to worry much either way. It's not a good clean snowstorm pattern at all though. That's unanimous on ens. The quicker the shortwave can come in and attack the cold air the better. No way to keep cold in with that set up for the coastal plain. GFS has the weaker, quick hitting idea. I would prefer that and get a modest snow, and watch it melt a day later lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 We need to all chip in and buy a 50/50. We have one, the +NAO just tosses it up too Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Not everywhere. We never went above freezing here in that one, although we did transition to a period of freezing rain. IIRC, Balt soared to near 50 degrees that evening. Yes, Baltimore jumped from upper 30's to 49 in like an hour that evening once the rain stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 We need to all chip in and buy a 50/50. any way to seed a monster storm there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Good times. Remember the Alamo blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowduck Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 We need to all chip in and buy a 50/50. I'm in, get the best price you can find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Almost time for Spring Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 ^ I'd be stoked if that panel was for March 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 ^ I'd be stoked if that panel was for March 11th. At least sun angle season is here. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Almost time for Spring Watch. That doesn't really do it justice....but this does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yeah it looks transient though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 March will be rockin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 March will be rockin. For the Terps. I knew you would come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yeah it looks transient though. This should cool off a little as it heads our way but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This should cool off a little as it heads our way but still heatwatch.JPG there are some monster hits on the EPS and alot of modest to good snows. E41 please LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 there are some monster hits on the EPS and alot of modest to good snows. E41 please LOL There are. I'd be happy with the control run through day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 This should cool off a little as it heads our way but still heatwatch.JPG The euro 5 days ago gave me about 7" of snow for today. Money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro ensembles are pretty much locked into the snow to rain (and lots of it) evolution next week. Crazy consensus for the lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
66degreesnorth Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro ensembles are pretty much locked into the snow to rain (and lots of it) evolution next week. Crazy consensus for the lead time.Does that "lots of it" modify "snow" or "rain"Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 there are some monster hits on the EPS and alot of modest to good snows. E41 please LOL Look at the e41's panels and how it gets there. Low tracks up the DE bay into CPA and dumps wrap around after the midlevels have been compromised and then cool again. That happens all the time here. haha I skipped through a bunch of the members. Pretty much the same theme as the op with variations. West of DC will do better. Mean precip is 1"+ and mean snow is 3" for DC. Not a good ratio there. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro ensembles are pretty much locked into the snow to rain (and lots of it) evolution next week. Crazy consensus for the lead time. This one will lock in and not move. If it was an all snow set up (well actually, that happened 3 weeks ago, but still.....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro ensembles are pretty much locked into the snow to rain (and lots of it) evolution next week. Crazy consensus for the lead time.Dang man...20s to 40s just like that. But thus is the nature of our beloved region! Could very well be a one-hit wonder winter! Now I'm guessing the timing for this next potential non-event may fall Mon. into Tues. (or is it too early to say? Either way I'm just about ready to punt it, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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