Ji Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GGEM is trying for a 2/13/2014 but it still needs some work. GGEM would be interesting and alot of fun. Id take it that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I'd be happy with a 2/13/14 if we were colder and it rained less after the overnight thump. But the high temps and melting that day really ruined it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 EURO looks improved so far @ 96 hours. The big ULL is a bit deeper and farther W, and the s/w entering the US isn't as pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Shortwave is also faster. The quicker the storm comes, the more cold air will be available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 0z Operational Euro looks like it would be a very quick thump of snow, if any, before rain/dryslot for the cities. Has southerly winds and temps in the 40's pretty quick. I guess we have plenty of time for this one to trend better but this is certainly looking better for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 0z Operational Euro looks like it would be a very quick thump of snow, if any, before rain/dryslot for the cities. Has southerly winds and temps in the 40's pretty quick. I guess we have plenty of time for this one to trend better but this is certainly looking better for the mountains. 0z or 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 0z or 12z? Gotta be 0z. 12z hasn't gotten to prime time yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 0z or 12z? 0z. I was so focused on today's event I didn't look at last night's Euro yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I think the last time a decent snowfall changed over to a driving rainstorm was Dec 13, 2003... I was out of town and I have no regrets about missing it. 12/26/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 0z. I was so focused on today's event I didn't look at last night's Euro yet. Thanks.. I agree this event looks great for the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The shortwave associated with the storm is MUCH weaker and sheared. Honestly though I'd rather work from this point then to see a cutter and have to work backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The shortwave associated with the storm is MUCH weaker and sheared. Honestly though I'd rather work from this point then to see a cutter and have to work backwards. The euro is known to be too randytastic at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The shortwave associated with the storm is MUCH weaker and sheared. Honestly though I'd rather work from this point then to see a cutter and have to work backwards. Yeah, kind of have to agree on that. It either implies the shortwave is a lot weaker and/or the cold air is more entrenched this run (thus causing the incoming wave to shear out more). The solution seems very GFS-like to that point thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 12/26/12 Not everywhere. We never went above freezing here in that one, although we did transition to a period of freezing rain. IIRC, Balt soared to near 50 degrees that evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The euro is known to be too randytastic at range. Overly randytastic storms tend to cut, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Shortwave getting its act together @ 150 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 The shortwave associated with the storm is MUCH weaker and sheared. Honestly though I'd rather work from this point then to see a cutter and have to work backwards. Worst news possible in my opinion. I can see it now......0.1" of precip. BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 at 144 hrs, there's a weak High of 1021 over Lake Michigan....beats Low pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 .26" has fallen at BWI thru 160, but it's warming fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 ughhhh 168, its 41 degrees and rain maybe a couple inches before a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Midlevel cold runs away faster than Usain Bolt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Has the look of a serious ice storm for west of DC on the latest Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 iad, not as warm, more snow, but still turns to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 By 168, the 850s are long gone, even with the low in an apparently good spot off the southeast coast. But there's a low approaching the GL region from Minnesota, I guess that doesn't help. Nor does the high pushing way off the northeast coast. Really not a good evolution and not sure there's even much on the front end. Bleah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 day 7 850's http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Day 7 SLP....our best friend, the GL Low, is on the scene lol http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Day 7 SLP....our best friend, the GL Low, is on the scene lol http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Pretty annoying if that happens, It would be like MLK weekend again with the low in a decent position but torching. Perhaps like wes alluded to this airmass won't be as putrid as that one and we can get some CAD and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Even west of DC the surfae warms above freezing, I'd be leery of buying into that as long as the low stays over the bayy or points east. Models usually are OK at 850 but often have problems at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 We can "weenie" the cold to stay. Be happy for the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Even west of DC the surfae warms above freezing, I'd be leery of buying into that as long as the low stays over the bayy or points east. Models usually are OK at 850 but often have problems at the surface. Yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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