mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Tuesday 12z at BWI is -.8C and over an inch of snow has fallen (BFD!!!!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 wow..euro is pretty cold and wet for me. Much colder than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 day 5 700mb doesn't look too bad, but again, the north trend apparent http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 dark green is 0.5"+, light blue, 0.75"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 dark green is 0.5"+, light blue, 0.75"+ congratswinchester.PNG one would think it has to move east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Lol. Over 30 hours to drop .6 precip in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 dark green is 0.5"+, light blue, 0.75"+ QPF not an issue down here it seems but I bet the temps will be congratswinchester.PNG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 wow..euro is pretty cold and wet for me. Much colder than GFS 32 hour events that drop 0.5" QPF at 34 degrees usually work out pretty well for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 dark green is 0.5"+, light blue, 0.75"+ congratswinchester.PNG Euro QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Euro is close to warning level snow for NOVA to E-WVA. Not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 If I have to, I can live with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 32 hour events that drop 0.5" QPF at 34 degrees usually work out pretty well for us... ha. its actually 32 or below for me...but yea.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 If this was in a 6-12 hour period I would be excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 its a much better run than last nights dud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 32 hour events that drop 0.5" QPF at 34 degrees usually work out pretty well for us... White rain for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 one would think it has to move east the orientation is a reaction to the norlun feature that Ian mentioned. NW VA is the beneficiary here. It will often jackpot a smaller area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 OTOH- the good part of the run was the surface wasn't awful and it was a tick south from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Euro QPF? yes...Bob posted the better wxbell map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 If this was in a 6-12 hour period I would be excited. norlunprecip.JPG Euro tends to make storms last too long.. doesn't it? This one is odd so maybe it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 White rain for sure.. Not for you. IAD west stay at or below freezing the whole "event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 If this was in a 6-12 hour period I would be excited. norlunprecip.JPG Happened in March of 99 for a long duration light event. DCA did well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Not for you. IAD west stay at or below freezing the whole "event". Loudoun and west see a pretty decent event out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 yes...Bob posted the better wxbell map I'm basically tossing the run for fine details as I'm sure you are as well. Narrow little jack with a drawn out event is hardly awe inspiring and looking at the panels will change each run this weekend until we really start to know who's in and who's out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Euro tends to make storms last too long.. doesn't it? This one is odd so maybe it is right. yes...big Euro bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I wasn't sure if it might interact with land differently than anticipated, or if there might be better data. I wonder why sometimes we see marked differences from one day to the next. The differences between yesterdays gfs at 12z and todays with regard to the spacing between those sw's is pretty big. Something has to account for that difference. Exponential/nonlinear error growth within a chaotic system. Very small changes to the initial state can yield drastic changes even at the large scale at range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Happened in March of 99 for a long duration light event. DCA did well. it was a cold event and it was heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 its a much better run than last nights dud we get some of our best events when there is a surface low over Rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 we get some of our best events when there is a surface low over Rochester we did last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 I guess I'll take the lemonade approach with the run. I don't mind being in the northern edge of the precip max considering what the gfs did earlier. This is a pretty dirty event with weird details. I still don't know what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 it was a cold event and it was heavy It was cold. Wasn't so heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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