Interstate Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Why would it matter if it is "on shore" or not? People still think that energy cannot be sampled over the Pacific Ocean which is crazy. If people do not get with they want, they will reason with something to try and ease the pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Still plenty of time for this to unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Why would it matter if it is "on shore" or not? people still hold out hope for a Jan 2000 nwp failure so might as well assume we have an observing system from that era too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 What mechanisms can act to slow the second trough down and/or speed up the first one? And what might the models be missing that could lead to a different outcome? The speed of the jet stream is your answer to number one combined with the amount of digging and such. Its all wave theory stuff there. More digging could cause slower eastward movement. The other issue and perhaps our better bet is to hope that perhaps the models are washing things out a bit too much with this thing embedded in such a convoluted setup. Models could be not seeing the energy involved correctly. A small change in that amplitude of that secondary can have a significant impact on our outcome, especially if we are just rooting to get something decent like a 3-6" event like I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The fact our normally progressive Navgem continues to key in on the SE Coast low to be the main show and come farther North should raise some eyebrows. Havent seen 12z yet tho. It has been very consistent in not sending it OTS. Just took a look at that navgem, usually I dont, and your right it does key on the first system totally, but still not sure what your seeing. Its by far the furthest west of anything with that system and still it does absolutely NOTHING for anyone in this area. It helps crush eastern New England for sure, and perhaps gets something half decent into NYC and fringes Philly, but its the most amped with that of absolutely anything and it still doesn't even come close to affecting DC/Balt and points west. It does though show the worst possible scenario where that first storm completely squashes the second system to nothing and we dont even get a flake around here from either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 people still hold out hope for a Jan 2000 nwp failure so might as well assume we have an observing system from that era too nobody here that I know thinks that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 nobody here that I know thinks that way stop killing my dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I would be totally fine with GGEM giving me 8-9 in the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Still plenty of time for this to unfold. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Just took a look at that navgem, usually I dont, and your right it does key on the first system totally, but still not sure what your seeing. Its by far the furthest west of anything with that system and still it does absolutely NOTHING for anyone in this area. It helps crush eastern New England for sure, and perhaps gets something half decent into NYC and fringes Philly, but its the most amped with that of absolutely anything and it still doesn't even come close to affecting DC/Balt and points west. It does though show the worst possible scenario where that first storm completely squashes the second system to nothing and we dont even get a flake around here from either.I'm merely stating the Navgem is by far usually our most progressive model. I'm also stating the fact that every coastal storm this winter has trended N and W. I'm not suggesting a massive coastal snowstorm from NC-ME....I hope I didn't imply this. But an eyebrow should be raised to storm 1 (the SE Coast slp) in regards to what I stated above. The JMA is a bit farther N and W at 12z now too fwiw in response to the trof in the Midwest being a bit slower and digging a bit farther West. And since I'm notorious for looking at the CRAS, I may as well post what it shows for storm 1 for kicks and giggles. Again, don't simply write off this system as being a harmless OTS entity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Euro Day 2 500MB, slp, & 850 Temps http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Why would it matter if it is "on shore" or not? I wasn't sure if it might interact with land differently than anticipated, or if there might be better data. I wonder why sometimes we see marked differences from one day to the next. The differences between yesterdays gfs at 12z and todays with regard to the spacing between those sw's is pretty big. Something has to account for that difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 EURO rapidly deepening the 1st low at 54 and 60... 979mb at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 THis storm is going to be really warm for a period. Good luck to you all in those colder areas. I'll enjoy my -ra/sn at 41 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Getting some more space this euro run. Trough a bit slower and digging further west and southern wave is a bit further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Euro Day 3 500MB, slp, & 850 Temps http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Getting some more space this euro run. Trough a bit slower and digging further west and southern wave is a bit further east. Good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 EURO rapidly deepening the 1st low at 54 and 60... 979mb at 60 WOW! I noticed the system moved along the Caribbean in an East to West fashion....very tropical-like. Are there any true tropical characteristics associated with this slp? I'm just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm merely stating the Navgem is by far usually our most progressive model. I'm also stating the fact that every coastal storm this winter has trended N and W. I'm not suggesting a massive coastal snowstorm from NC-ME....I hope I didn't imply this. But an eyebrow should be raised to storm 1 (the SE Coast slp) in regards to what I stated above. The JMA is a bit farther N and W at 12z now too fwiw in response to the trof in the Midwest being a bit slower and digging a bit farther West. And since I'm notorious for looking at the CRAS, I may as well post what it shows for storm 1 for kicks and giggles. Again, don't simply write off this system as being a harmless OTS entity: Hey Ralph.. I definitely agree with what your saying. Its a close shave further up the coast. Just something to keep an eye on. Should be interesting how everything develops. But that is a big storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 not a very moisture laden event. So much for the 8-12" storm of a couple runs ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Doesn't look like much QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 CRAS is always overamped. Let's not go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Euro Day 4 500MB, slp,, 850 Temps & 700mb RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 It's a hot mess @ h5 around us. Nothing big is getting organized in that environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Nice hit for the Winchester crew... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 We do have the 500mb pass going for us. Euro not a ton of QPF but does bullseye the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 We do have the 500mb pass going for us. Euro not a ton of QPF but does bullseye the area. unsurprisingly a nice hit for NW VA....Could be one of those events that is way better in OKV/JYO and kind of wimpy/warm for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 unsurprisingly a nice hit for NW VA....Could be one of those events that is way better in OKV/JYO and kind of wimpy/warm for us 90 and 96 looks like its around freezing at DCA though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 unsurprisingly a nice hit for NW VA....Could be one of those events that is way better in OKV/JYO and kind of wimpy/warm for us I wonder if that little 'norlun' or inverted trough or whatever is real. It's still snowing with the low east of the benchmark. But it has shown up on many runs to some degree. And yes.. could be a big west to east diff if we're not talking a rapid development low etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 96 looks like its around freezing at DCA daytime, mid Feb, low to our NW, 0.75 viz rates...different setup but has a 12/10/13 vibe. Don't get too invested in this one for me and you...If I live IAD/JYO/MRB I am feeling pretty good,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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