WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Not sure what you mean but the incoming trough that boots the first storm is just so broad and flat, especially initially, I'm not sure how it could end up pulling the first storm in super meaningfully. I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up a little north/closer in the end but not booting it is going to be tough given the wind flow around the trough. As the trough gets here and kicks up the second low (the one people are into for now, or were into before it starts failing) doesn't have a great shot either because much of the weight of the trough is still at the base and backside. If it looked like it does at ~96 around ~78 I'd like it more. I'm just very unconvinced anything we've seen has meant a whole lot as far as the end result for us at the sfc. My guess is we're starting to move into the answer which generally isn't a great one. I have no idea if this has any merit, but yesterday at this same time it was as if the low heights in Quebec seemingly carried the se vortex right on out with it. Now it seems the low in Quebec is outrunning the one in the southeast and it gets left behind. Again, no idea if that interaction actually ever existed. It would seem that slowing down that second vortex would be our best shot. Don't know if that is a reasonable possibility or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 FYI, Euro operational 0Z run only dropped .31" on BWI over a 24 hour period with close temps, so this run of the GFs looks similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 so, I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm cool with what the GFS is showing lol, yea from a purely MOBY point of view its a decent run for us but I am NOT kicking that hornets nest in here and it was still a step in the wrong direction even up here so I don't get a warm fuzzy feeling from this run either way. Plus I would always rather a more region wide impact event, not selfish with my snow as long as I get mine. Also feel that way with other regions but I know Matt would smack me for saying such blasphemy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 exactly, but todays system did absolutely nothing for me, I am over 100 miles west of you. I think people are seeing different things based on location, understandably. Where I am the miller b is probably my only hope. If I lived in NJ or the eastern shore I would be way more interested in that coastal low. Total agree. I have to keep that in mind on when I post again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 lol, yea from a purely MOBY point of view its a decent run for us but I am NOT kicking that hornets nest in here and it was still a step in the wrong direction even up here so I don't get a warm fuzzy feeling from this run either way. Plus I would always rather a more region wide impact event, not selfish with my snow as long as I get mine. Also feel that way with other regions but I know Matt would smack me for saying such blasphemy. I was gonna say, pffft, that isn't allowed around here. Its IMBY snow or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I have no idea if this has any merit, but yesterday at this same time it was as if the low heights in Quebec seemingly carried the se vortex right on out with it. Now it seems the low in Quebec is outrunning the one in the southeast and it gets left behind. Again, no idea if that interaction actually ever existed. It would seem that slowing down that second vortex would be our best shot. Don't know if that is a reasonable possibility or not. Yes, for the Mon night/Tue a slower trough is probably better. If nothing else it would give itself some time to orient in a more conducive way for us. I haven't really tracked its change in speed etc though to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Using the B and W maps, looks like 12z GGEM is a no (except for NE MD) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The first low is screwing it all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 You guys realize the globals have slowed down that southern low significantly. The NAM even gives coastal SNE some snow from it. Yesterday it was progged to be WAY OTS. Meteorologically you're just not going to see 2 deep lows that close to each other. So since that 1st low is still near SNE when the 2nd one is getting its act together, it just doesn't give the 2nd one room to develop. Screwjob really. Miss the 1st one, which then screws us for the 2nd one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Using the B and W maps, looks like 12z GGEM is a no (except for NE MD) then it shifts it north http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/235_100.gif git that Miller B for Blues going today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Using the B and W maps, looks like 12z GGEM is a no (except for NE MD) Ravens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 yea GGEM is pretty bad, an inch or two across northern MD and thats about it. Pretty weak sauce, not organized significant precip anywhere really except a narrow band that gets going late across central NJ as the low pulls east. Same problem as before, too much coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The dreaded inverted V. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Both the GFS and GGEM look pretty bad. The former has most of its better precip back towards Winchester and points west and keeps DC pretty warm through much of Monday night. We do get some snow but only light snow. The broad nature fo the trough and the proximity to the southeast low make it hard to really get any rapid deepening and moisture from the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 UKIE saves... for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 GGE< & GFS still do have the inverted trough, and things can still change. I think a major storm is out of the cards now (not like it ever was that possible)....Placement of an inverted trough is impossible to forecast this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 This does look good. You can see the 500 height has a nice tuck near us which means there would def be precip thrown our way IMO....The UKIE has been hot lately so you never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 UKIE saves... for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Bottom line is the weaker wave 1, the stronger wave 2....Unless there is a miracle and wave 1 suddenly pulls a Jan 25 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Ukie keeps the ocean storm further out to sea you can see it on the 72 hr. precip map at this link that explains why it's better http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I am hoping models will slow the second storm down as well once it gets onshore and restore the gap between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Waiting on the ind precip plots but I would take my chances with the gefs' idea @ hr90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I was just about to post that Bob... I would def take the risk with this MSLP plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Think the 1st low is basically as West as it will go... don't see it making it much closer to the coast - as others have pointed out... so if future runs correct to the East a bit, things will (should) improve with the 2nd low. A lot of moving pieces... at least it seems SnowTV of some sort is likely. Not going to have my hopes up for anything big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 I was just about to post that Bob... I would def take the risk with this MSLP plots Precip plots definitely show a step back from 6z. Probably not a good sign. But we're not out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Precip plots definitely show a step back from 6z. Probably not a good sign. But we're not out of the game. I think once we get that last piece to the puzzle on shore we will know our fate, or at least have a good idea. That doesn't happen for another 18-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The link between storm 1 and 2 is obvious, and the trend right now is undeniable, but there is still a LOT of time for this to trend in either direction. Also time for models to key on the second system a bit more. Perhaps it has a little room to develop beyond what is currently being shown from this far out even with the current spacing, but not much. This was always a lower probability, and in the back of my mind I kept thinking this is the kind of thing that will morph and change its look from range and so being in a "good spot" 4-5 days out might not be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The link between storm 1 and 2 is obvious, and the trend right now is undeniable, but there is still a LOT of time for this to trend in either direction. Also time for models to key on the second system a bit more. Perhaps it has a little room to develop beyond what is currently being shown from this far out even with the current spacing, but not much. This was always a lower probability, and in the back of my mind I kept thinking this is the kind of thing that will morph and change its look from range and so being in a "good spot" 4-5 days out might not be a good thing. What mechanisms can act to slow the second trough down and/or speed up the first one? And what might the models be missing that could lead to a different outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I think once we get that last piece to the puzzle on shore we will know our fate, or at least have a good idea. That doesn't happen for another 18-24 hours. Why would it matter if it is "on shore" or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Why would it matter if it is "on shore" or not? it wouldn't... I remember you said we have plenty of sampling data over the Pacific. it really comes down to low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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