yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 No love for the 6z paraGFS? Its the lolz... 0.25 QPF sits over the area for hours and hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm taking the under. Peer pressure got me today. Not again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Heh, smoking for the cities. Don't let Winwxluvr look at the run... Haha, I don't think I'll invest much thought into 25-50 miles from 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Heh, smoking for the cities. Don't let Winwxluvr look at the run... I believe its 1.6 QPF for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Heh, smoking for the cities. Don't let Winwxluvr look at the run... Meh, probably half of it lost on white rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 I believe its 0.8 QPF for DC I think it's over 1" liquid. Maybe a dot of 1.25 but hard to see that closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I think it's over 1" liquid. Maybe a dot of 1.25 but hard to see that closely. I zoomed in to like 500%... QPF is 1.5+.... its hilarious... I edited my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I believe its 1.6 QPF for DC What the heck are you guys looking at? The para GFS? The one I'm seeing has nothing near that amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I zoomed in to like 500%... QPF is 1.5+.... its hilarious... I edited my post Post a pic of that. The NCEP graph I have doesn't show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Total QPF 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Oops, was looking at yesterday's 12z. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I don't think that is an issue any longer. We still have to worry about temps and precip intensity especially where you and I live, not so much for out luvr and friends west and north. Well, they might have to worry about intensity though it seems they almost always do better than expected in that regard. Jason and I are tag teaming on the event. Wee were already lamenting that this is goign to be a bust waiting to happen no matter which way we end up going with our forecasts. Lol. It's like going into Court with an absolute loser no matter what you do. Boy, do I, along with every other lawyer who's ever stepped foot in a courtroom, know that feeling. Welp, going to feel like springtime for you with all that hedging that's needed! But it won't matter, because people will still read from it what they want to. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Heh, smoking for the cities. Don't let Winwxluvr look at the run... It is what I would expect from a setup like this though. It has all of the earmarks of disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Total QPF 120 hrs Untitled.png really incredible how all the models are bulls-eyeing NVA and Central MD, east with the precip I feel like NCEP and all the rest are going to come out over the weekend and say "sorry, the stencil on our computer was cockeyed", and they adjust it north 100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I think it's over 1" liquid. Maybe a dot of 1.25 but hard to see that closely. Its a heavy wet snow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Its a heavy wet snow too Looking at the 3 hour panels the band of precipitation is pretty narrow to begin with and that bullseye over the DC metro is microscopic. A 50 to 100 mile shift on that and DC is at like 0.25 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It is what I would expect from a setup like this though. It has all of the earmarks of disappointment. These have never worked out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 No love for the 6z paraGFS? I fully approve...another nice run and pretty good agreement with its last few runs as well... plus its a pretty decent hit with the Feb 15/16 storm. This is total QPF that doesn't include the stuff from this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 This seems to complicated not to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Precip shield will expand some.. at least that is my thinking based on last storms.. We know it is a tough call! VERY appropriate thread title! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Am I one of the few that is seeing more spacing between the Midwest energy and the SE Coast energy with the first wave off the SE Coast around D+2 attempting to be the main show while the Miller B idea slowly loses its footing with that related energy acting more like a clipper reinforcing the cold behind the storm? Sorry for the run-on sentence/question :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Am I one of the few that is seeing more spacing between the Midwest energy and the SE Coast energy with the first wave off the SE Coast around D+2 attempting to be the main show while the Miller B idea slowly loses its footing with that related energy acting more like a clipper reinforcing the cold behind the storm? Sorry for the run-on sentence/question :-) I was wondering that earlier. If the ocean storm were to just come straight up the coast, what would the temps be like? That is a pretty juicy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Am I one of the few that is seeing more spacing between the Midwest energy and the SE Coast energy with the first wave off the SE Coast around D+2 attempting to be the main show while the Miller B idea slowly loses its footing with that related energy acting more like a clipper reinforcing the cold behind the storm? Sorry for the run-on sentence/question :-) I hope not because if that first low is the main player our area is pretty much out of play. There is a limit to how far west that can come with that northern stream vort diving in behind it. They are way to spaced to phase so acting as a kicker is the only option. I could definitely see the stj system getting close enough to impact NYC and Boston, but for DC to Philly its probably a lost cause. I would root for that thing to get lost as fast as possible if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The vort pass is good, the rest mostly sucks. Hard not to favor the Euro the most and even it might be too snowy. Trough is so broad .. going to need some luck to get anything great here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I hope not because if that first low is the main player our area is pretty much out of play. There is a limit to how far west that can come with that northern stream vort diving in behind it. They are way to spaced to phase so acting as a kicker is the only option. I could definitely see the stj system getting close enough to impact NYC and Boston, but for DC to Philly its probably a lost cause. I would root for that thing to get lost as fast as possible if I were you. It seems to be trending the wrong way though now PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It seems to be trending the wrong way though now PSU. it is, I see what everyone else is seeing, but a trend can reverse at any time. And that is what I think we better be pulling for. I know its tempting given the direction things are going to get sucked into the idea that "maybe the southern storm just comes all the way up" and nothing is impossible but if you just look at the H5 I just can't see how that has much of a chance. That next vort coming in is way too close to give it that much space to correct west, last nights euro was probably close to the western side of the possible envelope and it got no where near us, just enough to help Boston out. If that trends more west most likely it might just help NYC and places along the immediate coast and thats about it. What may be possible, but its a LONG shot, is to get some partial phasing between the two systems and bomb out a miller b hybrid. A few ensembles show something like that so its at least on the table. I dont see much of anything that suggests that stj system could just run the coast enough to directly effect us in a significant way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It seems to be trending the wrong way though now PSU.Agreed and the 'kicker' is having less of an influence and is lagging behind more and more each run. Not sure if this is a trend, if the energy is just getting better sampled, or what... .but N and W has been the trend all winter and I don't see any reason this will be different. Anyone recall (dare I say) Jan 25, 2000? Different setup aloft but some eerie similarities at the surface. I'm keeping really close tabs on the SE low to try and become the main player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 it is, I see what everyone else is seeing, but a trend can reverse at any time. And that is what I think we better be pulling for. I know its tempting given the direction things are going to get sucked into the idea that "maybe the southern storm just comes all the way up" and nothing is impossible but if you just look at the H5 I just can't see how that has much of a chance. That next vort coming in is way too close to give it that much space to correct west, last nights euro was probably close to the western side of the possible envelope and it got no where near us, just enough to help Boston out. If that trends more west most likely it might just help NYC and places along the immediate coast and thats about it. What may be possible, but its a LONG shot, is to get some partial phasing between the two systems and bomb out a miller b hybrid. A few ensembles show something like that so its at least on the table. I dont see much of anything that suggests that stj system could just run the coast enough to directly effect us in a significant way.The fact our normally progressive Navgem continues to key in on the SE Coast low to be the main show and come farther North should raise some eyebrows. Havent seen 12z yet tho. It has been very consistent in not sending it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12z GFS is about to capture the low offshore at 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 GFS is deeper with the MW vortex at 63 hrs than NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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