showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Can't check for myself right now, what's the qpf for me? Snowfall maps have you almost riding the jackpot. Shows roughly 8-9 inches. Precip total is roughly .9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Snowfall maps have you almost riding the jackpot. Shows roughly 8-9 inches. Precip total is roughly .9" Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 At the point where I shy away from the ensembles but do like to look to see if they are in agreement with the op runs. Euro ensembles agree with the central MD snowfall jackpot that the high res Nam, RGEM are depicting though the means has fairly substantial lower snowfall totals (3 1/2 inch max in Balt/Carroll county with 3 through central MD). Looking at qpf maps would explain that because it has the heavier qpf totals south of what the NAM/RGEM have. A casual glance at individual members show very good agreement and only after 36 hours do we start to see them diverge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Hi res NAM should make the DC/Balt corridor happy. Substantially wetter then the 00z run and it pulls the NE MD jackpot from the reg NAM south to where the jackpot runs in the DC/Balt corridor. Again looking at snowfall maps suggest some issues with temps, especially south, but if they can be overcome the run suggests a warning criteria through central MD with up to 10 inches around Balt. All and all a very nice run. To me the 4k NAM has a similar snowfall distribution to the Euro, and doesn't have the "odd" jackpots like the GFS has been suggesting. Looks like 5-7" over N Central MD and 2-4" elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 To me the 4k NAM has a similar snowfall distribution to the Euro, and doesn't have the "odd" jackpots like the GFS has been suggesting. Looks like 5-7" over N Central MD and 2-4" elsewhere. As far as the warning criteria I could have worded it better. Should have said that temps are so marginal with just a slight adjustment colder we would be looking at warning criteria with the amount of qpf being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This will be a win for the people who can eek out the good temps. Anyone that stays below or around 32 will get a chance to accum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 As far as the warning criteria I could have worded it better. Should have said that temps are so marginal with just a slight adjustment colder we would be looking at warning criteria with the amount of qpf being shown. Yeah the max qpf runs NW-SE, from N MD, SE through BWI and Annapolis, and over to the eastern shore. The primary reason Westminster is at say 7" and Easton is 3-4, are the temps. Have to see where banding sets up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Didn't get a chance to look at timing... Still a long event? Overnight start? Commutes questionable? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Rgem around a foot at Wednesday 6z and still snowing. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Rgem around a foot at Wednesday 6z and still snowing. Lol Wow even has 10 inches down to DC. Have to start taking the mesoscale models seriously soon I would think, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Rgem around a foot at Wednesday 6z and still snowing. Lol Still raises the skepticism meter as the temps are marginal for a during the day snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro Para has a general 2-4" event for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I started an Obs/Disc thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47834-feb-8th-9th-obsdiscussion-thread/ probably want to move short range model talk to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wow even has 10 inches down to DC. Have to start taking the mesoscale models seriously soon I would think, right? That's how we know it's wrong. If we get 2" we'll be lucky. 3-4 and we've hit the lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NWS has reduced the snow accumulation around DC to just 1-2 (with maximum between 3-5). They clearly think temps will be tough - well, their automated system thinks that at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NWS has reduced the snow accumulation around DC to just 1-2 (with maximum between 3-5). They clearly think temps will be tough - well, their automated system thinks that at least. If we don't turn cloudy fast, I don't see how we don't see people approach 50 in some places today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If we don't turn cloudy fast, I don't see how we don't see people approach 50 in some places today. Wow, the rare turn of a triple negative there, congrats! But seriously...I've just been reading through the last couple or so pages. Like the trends from overnight even closer in here to the DC area. I'd have to imagine advisories will go up in the areas just outside that watch by early tomorrow, if anything just because of the rush hour timing. I still think we'll see some adjustments in one way or another with the 12Z cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 As several have noted the 00 Euro is more favorable for accumulating snow than its 12 UT predecessor. For my area, still looks like a 6 or 7 PM start with temperatures in the mid 30s. However, temperatures do fall to 33 by early morning when the snow begins in earnest. The precip total is 0.58" (was 0.45" in last run) with ~0.45 inches occurring between 1 AM and 4 PM when temperatures range between 33 and 35. The morning lull that was so problematic in the last run for temperatures is less clear in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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