Snowman. Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro is wetter than the 12z by far, decent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 dark green is 0.5" - 0.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Pretty nice move towards the other 0z guidance. Very encouraging run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This is a potentially good event for Leesburg-Hagerstown - Westminster - Parkton.....And even perhaps decent west of 95 (especially in the better spots) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This is a potentially good event for Leesburg-Hagerstown - Westminster - Parkton.....And even perhaps decent west of 95 (especially in the better spots) Thanks Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Mt airy jack isn't very surprising. I would guess the east aspects of parrs are looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Great runs tonight, glad we're getting close to a consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Westminster definitely looks like it's the place to be for this event. All 0z models besides RGEM 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 50% increase in precip totals from 12 to 0z. I posted earlier that I thought the euro can be stingy at times. Let's hope 0z is still too stingy. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Good runs this eve! Thanks to Matt for the euro qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Thanks Matt You're in a good spot if we take Euro temps verbatim...You're 32 or below from around 11pm Monday evening until Noon on Tuesday...and even after that you don't get higher than 33-34....If you even started as rain, you'd be snow pretty quickly...Based on the models, I think some localized areas could get 6-8"+....I'd tend to think the jackpot areas might be more toward the northern edges of the Euro QPF...somewhere near the M/D line into southern PA makes sense to me....I definitely wouldn't want to be on the southern edge of the good QPF....could be a nasty 34 degree -SN screw zone especially around my precise backyard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Psu's logic works here. NYC gets .1-.2 and he gets (shockingly) a flush hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Great runs tonight, glad we're getting close to a consensus I agree. Most of the models have moved towards the middle, which is pretty good for much of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 You're in a good spot if we take Euro temps verbatim...You're 32 or below from around 11pm Monday evening until Noon on Tuesday...and even after that you don't get higher than 33-34....If you even started as rain, you'd be snow pretty quickly...Based on the models, I think some localized areas could get 6-8"+....I'd tend to think the jackpot areas might be more toward the northern edges of the Euro QPF...somewhere near the M/D line into southern PA makes sense to me....I definitely wouldn't want to be on the southern edge of the good QPF....could be a nasty 34 degree -SN screw zone especially around my precise backyard...Yeah. I agree with everything you mentioned. My thoughts exactly. I work the overnight tomorrow night into Tuesday morning too, so I'll be keeping tabs on the radar trends and giving my obs. I'm staying in HGR instead of Germantown cause I dont want to be traveling tired in that shiz Tuesday morning. Plus, I like my spot anyway lolI still think DC can get an inch or two out of it with some snow tv through the day. Finally feel like winter outside the HECS. Upcoming week looks dang cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 50% increase in precip totals from 12 to 0z. I posted earlier that I thought the euro can be stingy at times. Let's hope 0z is still too stingy. Lol The thing about this storm is the Euro drawn out bias is actually corroborated by the GFS...certainly both models could be dragging it out too long, but this is a protracted event. Like 6pm tomorrow - mid evening on Tuesday......Tuesday morning could be real nasty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Psu's logic works here. NYC gets .1-.2 and he gets (shockingly) a flush hit. He's complained his way to around 125" since December 2013....Why stop now? Stick with what works.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 The thing about this storm is the Euro drawn out bias is actually corroborated by the GFS...certainly both models could be dragging it out too long, but this is a protracted event. Like 6pm tomorrow - mid evening on Tuesday......Tuesday morning could be real nasty... I started thinking about the 1-2 punch evolution a day or 2 ago. The euro was showing it I think on Friday. Globals smooth that stuff and meso's like the RGEM are more distinct right now. I'm not in a favored area regardless of qpf and I'm good with that. Comes with the territory just like your yard. Seeing the bump with the euro answers a lot of questions at this point. This is most likely going to be a measurable event. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Think DC proper will manage 4 inches and a lot of SnowTV besides. Nice jebwalking weather afterward, too, truly refreshing airmass incoming, if the h85 temps can be believed. I hope the h85's are warm, compared to what actually transpires in a few days.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 06z RGEM drops a foot on Baltimore, 6" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ANNE ARUNDEL-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-346 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATETUESDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATETONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 9 INCHES.* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATER TODAY...INITIALLY ASRAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TOALL SNOW TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIODSOF HEAVY SNOW DURING THIS TIME.* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED...RESULTING INHAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 06z RGEM drops a foot on Baltimore, 6" for DC.6z rgem was a complete destruction for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 06Z NAM has a much more reasonable look then the 00Z NE MD super jackpot it was depicting. Still has the NE MD jackpot of an inch but has smoothed the look out and has increased precip totals a good bit area wide. Looking at the snowfall compared to the precip map though suggests there are somewhat serious issues with temps especially south. 06Z GFS has pretty much held serve vs the 00z run with probably nothing more then noise displayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 RGEM and GFS remain steady and dump over CMD down to DC. NWS pulling trigger after seeing the overnight runs. Looks cold too for the cities and burbs with of course the burbs remaining cold through probably 95% of the precip. I like a general 3-6" with as much as 10-12" in the. Most persistent bands, namely north of I70 across Carroll, Baltimore Co., Harford and southwest Cecil. Time for best precip and rates looks to start early morning hours Tuesday and last into early PM before gradual diminishing from west to east. Where ever the LLJ sets aim at will be the victor in terms of best snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Mt airy jack isn't very surprising. I would guess the east aspects of parrs are looking pretty good.1100' elevation max just north of I-70. Some hilltop could see 10", while the rest of us struggle to get an inch on mulch.The two big takeaways for everyone north of the ICC in MD is the nudge up in QPF and trend towards colder guidance. Maybe we'll get lucky and see another bump towards a colder solution today. Almost no chance we see a wider coverage in precip, norluns just don't do that (duh), but maybe we can see more folks stay below the freezing mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looking good imby, thanks for the euro pbp, Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Hi res NAM should make the DC/Balt corridor happy. Substantially wetter then the 00z run and it pulls the NE MD jackpot from the reg NAM south to where the jackpot runs in the DC/Balt corridor. Again looking at snowfall maps suggest some issues with temps, especially south, but if they can be overcome the run suggests a warning criteria through central MD with up to 10 inches around Balt. All and all a very nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 6z GFS held serve. .6 DC .7 BWI .8 Baltimore .7 Westminster .6 Winchester Bullseye in northern Harford and Baltimore counties up into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 6z GFS held serve. .6 DC .7 BWI .8 Baltimore .7 Westminster .6 Winchester Bullseye in northern Harford and Baltimore counties up into PA. Can't check for myself right now, what's the qpf for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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