EB89 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 hehe 00z GFS gives Westminster 3.0" of snow from .55" QPF (lots of mixing) 06z GFS ups the ante to 12" of snow from .84" qpf (mixing early). gotta love the snow ratios Cobb puts out, 20:1 or more for nine hours You wouldn't happen to have the QPF info for KFDK would you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like a decent event from everything that I can see. A general 3-6" certainly looks reasonable. I'd be happy with that outcome with some cold air to follow...........leading up to our massive snows from Feb 10 through March 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like a decent event from everything that I can see. A general 3-6" certainly looks reasonable. I'd be happy with that outcome with some cold air to follow...........leading up to our massive snows from Feb 10 through March 10. you serious Clark? this potential 3 inches might stay on the ground longer than the 30 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 You wouldn't happen to have the QPF info for KFDK would you? There isn't an output for Frederick. You'd have to use Hagerstown http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 There isn't an output for Frederick. You'd have to use Hagerstown http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ Thanks for the link. Too bad they don't have one for Frederick. This doesn't make sense to me: 160211/0300Z 141 27008KT 19.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 16:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49 0| 0| 0 2.7 inches of snow with .49" of QPF? The output was showing high ratios as well. I know not to take the model output as gospel being 4 days out, but am just curious. ETA: Nevermind, there were two panels with RASN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 hehe 00z GFS gives Westminster 3.0" of snow from .55" QPF (lots of mixing) 06z GFS ups the ante to 12" of snow from .84" qpf (mixing early). gotta love the snow ratios Cobb puts out, 20:1 or more for nine hours Those ratios are usually too high but I wouldn't discount it totally in this type of setup. Being on the nw periphery of the precip sheild in a northern branch miller b usually puts you into some high ratio stuff. I am NOT thinking a repeat of this event is on the table, but Feb 10, 2010 for example, the second half of that storm was very high ratio stuff up here, the last 12" were from only about .5 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Nice posts this morning. I have little to add. Track seems to be locking in with favorable slp to our south. The fine details are hair pullers. 6z gefs was nicely clustered and supports an acceptable event. EPS looks great on slp progression but stepped back a bit with accums for the reasons already articulated earlier. I really don't know how this one is going to break. I guess we'll get a better idea once the southern low is alive and kicking. Yea we are in a good spot right now, just have to see how it plays out, this is still a much more complicated thing for models to nail down then those miller a storms with blocking. At this point we have hit the sweet spot with H5 and SLP track and just have to be pulling for more spacing between systems to allow a stronger more developed secondary. Things have flipped a bit where the GFS and para GFS are now showing a better outcome in that regards. Actually looking at the Para GFS its had some really good continuity the last few runs and may be starting, along with the op gfs to a lesser extent, to be locking in on a solution. Last time once it locked in it was money so perhaps its worth noting that if it remains steady at 12z. Stakes are a bit high between the two camps since these kind of systems can have higher then normal ratios if you can get some nice banding to set up. So the difference between a weak strung out system with .25 qpf and the GFS's .75 could be the difference between 2-3" and 10-12". Below is the Para GFS qpf, pretty good agreement with op GFS with a much healthier system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 morning AFD from LWX .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH APOTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY ANDSHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE HIGHAMPLITUDE PATTERN...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIGQUITE FAR TO THE SOUTH AND A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LIKELY TODEVELOP.THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OVER OUR AREA LATER MONDAYINTO TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THEMID-ATLANTIC COAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTS WITH THEBAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY STILLREMAINS AS TO HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL GET BEFORE MOVING OFF TO OURNORTH AND EAST. IF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS FARTHER SOUTH AND THECOASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES BEFORE MOVING OFF TO OUR NORTH ANDEAST...THEN A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EASTBEFORE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...THEN LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTEDWITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BOTH SCENARIOS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT THISTIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Pretty nice summary of next week's threat from WPC this morning: EAST: THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL OVER PARTS OFTHE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WITH THE MON NIGHT-WED SYSTEM. THESETYPE OF SYSTEMS INHERENTLY HAVE LOWER PREDICTABILITY ON THEIR SWSIDES -- I.E., DC METRO AREA -- AND RECENT VERIFICATION OF EASTCOAST SYSTEMS HAS SHOWN THAT PRECIP EDGES HAVE NOT BEENWELL-PREDICTED (ESPECIALLY N/NW SIDE). ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS OFGREAT VALUE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND AMPLIFIED PATTERNS OFTEN BRINGSURPRISES. NONETHELESS, ANOTHER SNOW THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAYFROM VA/MD TO MAINE NEXT TUE/WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Totally agree with your last post PSU. At hr 96, both the gefs and eps unanimously agree that slp tracks south of DC through central VA or N NC. My (our) biggest concern a couple days ago was overhead to N track with the secondary development. Now at 4 day leads we don't seem to have to worry about that at all. Weird. You would almost have to assume we are getting "some" snow out of this but boom or bust ranges are going to drive us a little nutz. My wag is 2-4" seems like a good # right now. The cities and east may battle some surface issues for a time. Last night was a good reminder what that can do to progs vs reality. The real fun begins when we are tracking another legit threat before this one even starts. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yea we are in a good spot right now, just have to see how it plays out, this is still a much more complicated thing for models to nail down then those miller a storms with blocking. At this point we have hit the sweet spot with H5 and SLP track and just have to be pulling for more spacing between systems to allow a stronger more developed secondary. Things have flipped a bit where the GFS and para GFS are now showing a better outcome in that regards. Actually looking at the Para GFS its had some really good continuity the last few runs and may be starting, along with the op gfs to a lesser extent, to be locking in on a solution. Last time once it locked in it was money so perhaps its worth noting that if it remains steady at 12z. Stakes are a bit high between the two camps since these kind of systems can have higher then normal ratios if you can get some nice banding to set up. So the difference between a weak strung out system with .25 qpf and the GFS's .75 could be the difference between 2-3" and 10-12". Below is the Para GFS qpf, pretty good agreement with op GFS with a much healthier system. And quite a bit further north with the better precip. I'll take the operational and pass on the parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 And quite a bit further north with the better precip. I'll take the operational and pass on the parallel. I am hugging the parallel! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 And quite a bit further north with the better precip. I'll take the operational and pass on the parallel. Just like in the wpc quote above, you gotta wonder if such a small area of organized precip on the nw side (very evident on the para euro) is favored with defined slp center so close. I'll hug the gfs for now. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 A decent amount of precip wasted in DC on rain/mix/non accumulating snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Have had a chance to think over the 00Z runs as I am cleaning the house because a Father-in-law called last night telling us to expect him around 1 today. Not sure how an 18 hour notice fits into us telling him a 2 to 3 day notice before a visit but he is who he is. Anyway here are some thoughts for what they are worth. I am going to state the obvious here, but we really need to see the separation and interaction between the Atlantic low and the developing low on the coast not degrade even farther. Better yet we need that to improve if even marginally. As it is now I have to wonder if the current setup has big bust potential written all over it for the southern sections if not for the whole area. As of now most of the snow we would receive is from a Norlun or Norlun type feature of which are narrow in scope and notorious to nail down a day or so out let alone 4 to 5 days. Add in the fact that I also have concerns that the current setup would maybe argue for a more northeastward adjustment to the development of the strung out low then what they currently show and with that a concurrent shifting northeastward of the Norlun feature. If that isn't bad enough looking at the temp profiles in the lower levels of the atmosphere would argue that those not sitting in the heavier returns will have issues accumulating especially those on the southern edge of the band. All in all I am thinking that what the models are actually showing aren't as a rosy as what the snowfall maps would suggest. Here's hoping that future runs at least give us some more separation if not pull that Atlantic low completely out of the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAM further west with the southern stream, if the trend continues, pretty soon it's going to skim the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAM further west with the southern stream, if the trend continues, pretty soon it's going to skim the coast. Just looking at that. Has the initial low flirting with with MA coast on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The southern stream forces the MW one to dig http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 radar lighting up by 84 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model NAM pops the slp in southern VA/NC border http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 FWIW, NAM starts the redevelopment SOUTH of us, so I guess that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The southern stream forces the MW one to dig http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 radar lighting up by 84 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model NAM pops the slp in southern VA/NC border http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model We better hope its a robust development and temps crash quick...but the radar sim looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 FWIW, NAM starts the redevelopment SOUTH of us, so I guess that's good. I think so. If you go back to 78 hrs. on sim radar then forward to 84, it's a nice expansion of precip surface temps are probably 34'ish, but once precip starts that should work better than last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 bottom line, I don't think the NAM is far off from the globals that give us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 I think so. If you go back to 78 hrs. on sim radar then forward to 84, it's a nice expansion of precip surface temps are probably 34'ish, but once precip starts that should work better than last night Not to mention sub freezing surface temps are in southern PA and not Ohio. Once the circulation gets going it will tap stuff close by and not several hundred miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Not to mention sub freezing surface temps are in southern PA and not Ohio. Once the circulation gets going it will tap stuff close by and not several hundred miles away. yep and 850's are much cooler than last night and we are below freezing as well at 925 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+12+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_925_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=925_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+12+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awkword1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 No love for the 6z paraGFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The southern stream forces the MW one to dig http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 radar lighting up by 84 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model NAM pops the slp in southern VA/NC border http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Interesting. I think I see what you're referring to that the southern stream system might in a way be forcing the one of interest to us (midwest) to dig farther. That could also be due to the ridge to the west being a bit sharper, too, I believe? I haven't looked at the previous NAM cycles, as it's just getting into its later range as it is right now. A definite nail-biting setup, for certain. ETA: Basically, I'm wondering how much we should be paying attention to the sharpness of the ridge to the west as well as the southern stream system...though I am sure this has been mentioned already so apologies if this is obvious and/or already discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Just like in the wpc quote above, you gotta wonder if such a small area of organized precip on the nw side (very evident on the para euro) is favored with defined slp center so close. I'll hug the gfs for now. Lol. The euro has been pretty awful in that regard all winter. It was the worst with hitting the extent of the qpf in the blizzard, and I kept pointing out the euro wasnt really that different with the slp track in some of its runs, there were 2 where it was way south in every way, but most runs its track was the same it just had a more contracted precip area. It has done similar things with several other events, mostly ones that didn't impact our area much but I still took notice. Past results don't always predict future outcomes but its been a trend this year for sure. This is a totally different animal from most of those other storms though so...who knows. I think it mostly comes down to how organized the secondary is able to get based on spacing. These usually start out in the early stages with very narrow banding close to the slp development. Then as they mature and develop a ccb precip sheild the area expands. THe problem with the euro is the first low is preventing it from developing much so it stays a compact system and never matures into anything more significant. Still too far out to make a call on that kind of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 No love for the 6z paraGFS? Heh, smoking for the cities. Don't let Winwxluvr look at the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 No love for the 6z paraGFS? yep, close to identical to 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 FWIW, NAM starts the redevelopment SOUTH of us, so I guess that's good. I don't think that is an issue any longer. We still have to worry about temps and precip intensity especially where you and I live, not so much for out luvr and friends west and north. Well, they might have to worry about intensity though it seems they almost always do better than expected in that regard. Jason and I are tag teaming on the event. Wee were already lamenting that this is goign to be a bust waiting to happen no matter which way we end up going with our forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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