DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is encouraging news. Thanks for the analysis.It's encouraging but one has to keep in mind that as we near h+48 we are getting into the afternoon on Tuesday so we have to hold thermals. Rates being solid should keep snow established, especially if there are areas of prolific qpf like the GFS just showed (on the order of .75-1"+) Still, something to watch closely nonetheless. As we said before, we will take our chances with good precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hour 48 on the RGEM has some fairly heavy precip in the area. The heaviest is on hr48 and what would be to follow. Should be a very interesting nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hour 48 on the RGEM has some fairly heavy precip in the area. On the RGEM map, we're already between 32 and 35 degrees (closer to 34-35 actually). Temps look to be a big issue IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 On the RGEM map, we're already between 32 and 35 degrees (closer to 34-35 actually). Temps look to be a big issue IMHO.Thermals do concern me though the Rgem tends to run warm at latter panels of its runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 On the RGEM map, we're already between 32 and 35 degrees (closer to 34-35 actually). Temps look to be a big issue IMHO. With those rates i'd take my chances with temps. Would probably still accumulate even at 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 With those rates i'd take my chances with temps. Would probably still accumulate even at 34 degrees. Looking at that map, we're talking about less than a tenth of an inch an hour of precip but I'll round up to a tenth of an inch. Is that enough to accumulate with those temps? Unless I'm misinterpreting the map. It is based on a three hour period, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Love rgem hate gfs run. Gfs is one step towards how I think we get screwed if this pulls its usual late correction and shifts the norlun up towards philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Love rgem hate gfs run. Gfs is one step towards how I think we get screwed if this pulls its usual late correction and shifts the norlun up towards philly. You sure do complain a lot for someone who always gets good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Philly man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looking at that map, we're talking about less than a tenth of an inch an hour of precip but I'll round up to a tenth of an inch. Is that enough to accumulate with those temps? Unless I'm misinterpreting the map. It is based on a three hour period, right? Its the QPF between hours 45-48.. almost all of the area gets at least 0.1 QPF+, with a small area that gets 0.25+ in 3 hours which would be about 1" per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Will the position of the low in the Midwest play a role in the orientation of the heavier precip after the low forms below us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 You sure do complain a lot for someone who always gets good snow always? I probably am guilty of the same thing when thinking of places like Worcester mass but I probably don't get as much snow as many people in dc think. My elevation helps a lot with temps and can enhance precip if I'm in it but I am just as prone to a miss as you if the precip shifts out of the area. Elevation won't help if the trough is over philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z para GFS still looks decent for DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gefs makes me feel better. Op run may have just been on the northern edge of its envelope. And yes I am an unabashed weenie when it comes to snow but since north is usually how we get screwed id rather not see things head that way and I'm also thinking Baltimore since I would like a day off so I can stay home to play in the snow with my son. The blizzard was great but a little too much snow for a 1 year old to do much in and too dry to make a snowman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 FWIW, 18z RGEM is still snowing at 54... meteogram shows DCA at around 15mm http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?&mod=gemreg&run=18〈=en&map=na&var=prcp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z rgem was by far the winner of the happy hour award. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Anyone have qpf for the para gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Anyone have qpf for the para gfs? http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_072_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_ptot&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160207+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=55# Looks like 0.7 for DCA zooming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Anyone have qpf for the para gfs? http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 She is a beaut, Fozz http://imgur.com/MMoT0Zd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Don't know if the ensembles are worth anything anymore but the GEFS is pretty tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Near consensus amongst the gefs members that dc gets 2". Mean is about 3". Northern MD/Southern PA bullseye with a mean of 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 She is a beaut, Fozz http://imgur.com/MMoT0Zd Pretty sweet. Saw obs from Ocracoke with gusts above 60 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Don't know if the ensembles are worth anything anymore but the GEFS is pretty tasty. Carroll County jack on the means... niiiice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 She is a beaut, Fozz http://imgur.com/MMoT0Zd very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Wow, the trough in the middle of the country looks like it's heading to Panama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 0z will start to sniff it out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 0z will start to sniff it out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk what will be sniffed out? Our HECS Monday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Gonna be tough to not skyrocket on temps tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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