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Feb 8-9th Miller Boom or Bust Disco


Bob Chill

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18z RGEM is honestly a great improvement from the 12z run. .5" QPF DC to BWI and n/w. Frederick bullseye with over .75" liquid. Snow maps show 4-6 in the cities, 8 up that way.

don't tease.

In seriousness this storm is beyond frustrating if your trying to forecast. So many moving parts. Frustrating that the stj ran out ahead of the northern branch digging in. Better timing and we could have had a monster storm. Either get rid of the coastal or time it up and phase but instead it's running interference. Still we have an excellent h5 pass with some vorts and an inverted trough. Maybe some convective banding. But models still can't resolve the interplay with the coastal and decide where to place the trough and how much energy it will have. Everytime things look good and I'm close to getting excited something flips bad. Then when I'm about to write it off something looks good. I could see a sloppy coating from snow showers or 6" and I wouldn't be shocked by either. I guess it's exciting but it feels like wasted potential too.

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Models like the gfs and rgem on their 18z runs show a really slow movement of the precip but also intense rates in areas. The rgem would have added even more qpf post hr 48 judging by the hourly frames and how slow the snow was progressing.

This is encouraging news. Thanks for the analysis.

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