stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Snow map up on TT Ah, just saw it...it's a really nice run...probably the max potential.... for down here anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z RGEM is honestly a great improvement from the 12z run. .5" QPF DC to BWI and n/w. Frederick bullseye with over .75" liquid. Snow maps show 4-6 in the cities, 8 up that way. Wow that's a big increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looks like GFS is holding steady so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Wow RGEM is impressive.. still snowing at hr 48 also Must suck to live in central LP of Michigan. Almost puts the DC snow hole to shame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z RGEM is honestly a great improvement from the 12z run. .5" QPF DC to BWI and n/w. Frederick bullseye with over .75" liquid. Snow maps show 4-6 in the cities, 8 up that way. Still snowing at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z RGEM is honestly a great improvement from the 12z run. .5" QPF DC to BWI and n/w. Frederick bullseye with over .75" liquid. Snow maps show 4-6 in the cities, 8 up that way. don't tease. In seriousness this storm is beyond frustrating if your trying to forecast. So many moving parts. Frustrating that the stj ran out ahead of the northern branch digging in. Better timing and we could have had a monster storm. Either get rid of the coastal or time it up and phase but instead it's running interference. Still we have an excellent h5 pass with some vorts and an inverted trough. Maybe some convective banding. But models still can't resolve the interplay with the coastal and decide where to place the trough and how much energy it will have. Everytime things look good and I'm close to getting excited something flips bad. Then when I'm about to write it off something looks good. I could see a sloppy coating from snow showers or 6" and I wouldn't be shocked by either. I guess it's exciting but it feels like wasted potential too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 WOWZA GFS slams N-NE MD againNearly stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looks like GFS is holding steady so farLikes ne Md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS is a tick north with the norlun @18z. Moves the jackpot from NMD to SEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 WOWZA GFS slams N-NE MD again This guy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's a step down from 12z GFS for DC. Looks like 0.3 of precipitation for DC items. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 WOWZA GFS slams N-NE MD again Nearly stationary. Stop posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Likes ne Md Well that makes one of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS is not as good out here as its 12z run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Thru 18z Tue, .4 DCA .5 BWI .7 mapgirl .6 Bel Air .6 Westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'll go with the RGEM for the 18z suite until something better happens at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Not bad, but unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's a step down from 12z GFS for DC. Looks like 0.3 of precipitation for DC items. Just said the same thing for my area. I am encouraged by the Hires NAM and the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Thru 18z Tue, .4 DCA .5 BWI .7 mapgirl .6 Bel Air .6 Westminster Really? Intantweathermaps had DC at .2-.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The GFS is ok.. it's a bit colder than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 I hope we have the exact same spread across guidance at 12z tomorrow. The epitome of a nowcast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Really? Intantweathermaps had DC at .2-.3. Yep. There are even 1" qpf totals on the eastern shore and up in york/Lancaster counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'll go with the RGEM for the 18z suite until something better happens at 0z. It has a lot of precip after 12z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'd wager that if there was a 21z run of the gfs the jack would be in a brand new location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Temps, imo, looked to stay a little too warm on the GFS for DC - had okay precip. (0.4+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Models like the gfs and rgem on their 18z runs show a really slow movement of the precip but also intense rates in areas. The rgem would have added even more qpf post hr 48 judging by the hourly frames and how slow the snow was progressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Waiting to see the 12z PARA just to see if they remain locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Models like the gfs and rgem on their 18z runs show a really slow movement of the precip but also intense rates in areas. The rgem would have added even more qpf post hr 48 judging by the hourly frames and how slow the snow was progressing. This is encouraging news. Thanks for the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hour 48 on the RGEM has some fairly heavy precip in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.