Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Disagree.... I think the northern counties should be in a watch, since there is a real possibility of 5"+. Having said that, I think those of us who live just north of Baltimore but not really near the M/D line should keep our expectations in check... this will be a localized mesoscale phenomenon and it's possible that psuhoffman and mappy get smoked with MECS totals while those of us a bit further south receive maybe 3-4". Not saying it will happen, but it's a good idea to be prepared for that possibility. It's all about where the banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Pretty decent IMO gefs_snow_ens_washdc_14.png e10, if you please! (and e13 if that one is sold out!) Mean is pretty consistent with the control/ops in terms of how the overall shape/pattern looks. With lower amounts, as expected. But this is perhaps not too surprising as we're likely getting out of range for using the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Pretty decent IMO gefs_snow_ens_washdc_14.png Wow, only 2 members that give DC less than 2 inches and there are 6 members that have DC right around or above 6 inches. Pretty good step up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 4k nam has already busted bad in NC for its snow forecast. There's essentially nothing vs a large area of 1-3" forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I think we have enough NWP with two GFSs and two Euros that we don't need a German model too. I wonder if their model is a natural progression of their really excellent research and modelling of the stratosphere. Most of their work led to the advances in the upper levels atmospheric physics in the ECMWF. I'll do a little poking around with some former colleagues next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I wonder if their model is a natural progression of their really excellent research and modelling of the stratosphere. Most of their work led to the advances in the upper levels atmospheric physics in the ECMWF. I'll do a little poking around with some former colleagues next week. wonder if it isnt, at least partly, due to their use of computers with very advanced processing chips. We now use cray computers, is that not correct??They use different super computers with a chinese chip that our gvt refused to let in. I could be wrong here, but this is what I,ve read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Pretty decent IMO gefs_snow_ens_washdc_14.png Carrol county again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primetime Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Carrol county again.It's a different world up here. Moved from Owings Mills to Hampstead in June 2014. Only about 10 or so miles north but a completely different climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I would love to buy the gfs but it's really totally on its own right now and even the gefs took a step down in qpf 12z. It's hard to hug it when it's not getting a lot of support anywhere else. Euro awaits though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Carrol county again. A lot of good hits for Baltimore too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 A lot of good hits for Baltimore too yes good observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's a different world up here. Moved from Owings Mills to Hampstead in June 2014. Only about 10 or so miles north but a completely different climate.[/quoteFor those of us south of it and for events like this, I sometimes think the Fall Line should be renamed the Fail Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Euro has initiated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gfs was the weakest furthest east with the coastal of all guidance. Not surprisingly it was our best result. I don't like seeing the euro getting snow into nyc early on in its run. We will know next frame it two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Euro h24...ocean storm well south and east of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Disagree.... I think the northern counties should be in a watch, since there is a real possibility of 5"+. Not with the GFS on it own island for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Euro says "what event?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Good ole fashion battle... US vs Europe Who caves first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The coastal being stronger and further west compared to 0z was a red flag, so I'm not surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 When in doubt, side with the Euro? Not diggin this (pun intended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Good ole fashion battle... US vs Europe Who caves first Euro is in line with the nam idea of dampening out the trough. Gfs is opposite. Most guidance is in between but also northeast of us with best qpf. Basically gfs is alone in it's better idea for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 2.5" @ bwi thru 54 hrs. Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Which model has the best current position of the current low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The coastal being stronger and further west compared to 0z was a red flag, so I'm not surprised yea it violated my root against snow in nyc rule early on. I had a bad feeling the moment I saw snow backing into nyc on the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 3.5" @ bwi thru 60 hrs. More to come I think too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I've been keeping an eye on the coastal giving NYC snow thinking NYC getting snow from the coastal and DC getting snow thereafter are mutually exclusive. Can't have both and the euro looks like it brings in snows to NYC from the coastal. Not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 2.5" @ bwi thru 54 hrs. Still time. Looks like a bit of slop that quickly melts as temps rise to the mid 30s Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm not sure it's the ocean storm causing the difference as much as just not being as energized with the trough. Slp track is nice on the euro. I'm not bailing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 3.5" @ bwi thru 60 hrs. More to come I think too Wow people made it sound like it was a shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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