stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I've been mostly worried about warm temps and crappy rates making it really hard to accumulate. Gfs and RGEM look pretty good in the temp dept. Surprisingly good IMHO. If we short range trend into a winner I'm going to be pretty happy. If the euro looks good a watch could go up this afternoon. Clown maps imply warning amounts, even into the city on north. I definitely don't buy it. I think you warrant a watch tho. I'll keep to 1 to 2 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 4 straight runs of the GFS. Consistent and looking good. The max amounts have also shifted south from 00z last night. Warning level snows now from Loudoun, Moco, Baltimore and north. It would be a big win for the GFS if it verifies. It has a lot more snow up here than any other model, from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Epic troughs do that. Someone is going to get a 12 spot. Won't know until It's falling. YOU are going to get that 12" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Clown maps imply warning amounts, even into the city on north. I definitely don't buy it. I think you warrant a watch tho. I'll keep to 1 to 2 for me. Agreed. I'd go 1-3" for DC/PG/AA and have a 3-5" swath cutting up along the fall line with higher amounts near the M/D line. That's if you buy the higher qpf solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looking over the overnight runs, it appears that the GFS is a wet outlier around Maryland. Does anyone know anything about the DWD (German) ICON model? It runs on a 13 km icosahedral grid four times a day. FWIW, here's its total precipitation forecast: Like the GFS, it cut back on qpf from the 00z to 06z run. Where can i find that DWD model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It would be a big win for the GFS if it verifies. It has a lot more snow up here than any other model, from what I can tell. It held serve for the blizzard. I thought it was most consistent. It seems to be locking in a solution for this event. it might be a touch cold especially at onset, however...if the low strengthens as such to our south it will force a more northerly wind component ..air on the backside of the departing ocean storm should be drier. Could be picking up on drawing in some drier low level air which leads to more wetbulbing at precip onset then dynamic cooling takes over. It's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Precip. from coastal low has been stationary for the last two hours. Look for it to start moving out to sea soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GGEM is better than the 0z run, but still a lot drier than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 So genuine question: do people generally enjoy tracking these storms more than cut-and-dry storms (such as one with large consistent areas of predicted snow accumulation)? Or is it more of an annoyance than anything? Can probably speak for most. We enjoy tracking anything. Snow is a gift and not a given in the MA. Personally, my favorite part is when something is locked in in the short range and then it becomes an exercise of parsing fine details. Matt is the best in the subforum for that stuff. Med to long lead stuff with sketchy details like this event are only fun if we produce. Otherwise it makes me want to walk the streets and throw acorns at squirrels and kick bunnies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 So genuine question: do people generally enjoy tracking these storms more than cut-and-dry storms (such as one with large consistent areas of predicted snow accumulation)? Or is it more of an annoyance than anything? We live and breathe this stuff. We would be disappointed if we weren't annoyed, dismayed and shocked by models not giving us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Where can i find that DWD model? Meteocentre. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=dwd_icon&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest It's a pretty good site for the less widely available models (UKMET, JMA, HRDPS, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 So genuine question: do people generally enjoy tracking these storms more than cut-and-dry storms (such as one with large consistent areas of predicted snow accumulation)? Or is it more of an annoyance than anything? Kind of a tough one to give a definitive answer to, but a couple of others have more or less echoed what most would probably agree with. If there's a big event like the blizzard or Snowmageddon, I prefer the more honed in "we're going to get slammed!" solutions to show up early on and be consistent. That's kind of fun, to see day after day having every major model show us with a HECS. Then it's just a matter of pin-pointing certain details and mesoscale bands. On the other hand...some of these "sneak up on you" events are fun as well. As are the ones that appear dead and then suddenly come back to life big time. They do have a certain level of boom or bust (hence the title in this thread!), and it's very frustrating to follow it only to have it fall right apart as game time gets here. It's nerve wracking to see things go back and forth as this one has but when it does work...it's pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 4 straight runs of the GFS. Consistent and looking good. The max amounts have also shifted south from 00z last night. Warning level snows now from Loudoun, Moco, Baltimore and north. Kocin was unimpressed but his comments were before the 12z run. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Where can i find that DWD model? The 12z DWD model came in somewhere between the GGEM and GFS. The location of the precip max is more similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Kocin was unimpressed but his comments were before the 12z run. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Saw that on my shift this AM. If the GFS holds serve this afternoon and evening it can't be overlooked at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I think we have enough NWP with two GFSs and two Euros that we don't need a German model too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'll end my banter here, but folks: I am officially addicted. No problem on the banter, we've all done that in "discussion" threads! Oh, and welcome to being among the hopelessly addicted, you'll find lots of company here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Saw that on my shift this AM. If the GFS holds serve this afternoon and evening it can't be overlooked at this point. Yes. It will be interesting to see what the 18Z Happy Hour GFS does, if it holds or what. Likewise, will the NAM/RGEM/SREF start moving that direction (we hope)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It held serve for the blizzard. I thought it was most consistent. It seems to be locking in a solution for this event. it might be a touch cold especially at onset, however...if the low strengthens as such to our south it will force a more northerly wind component ..air on the backside of the departing ocean storm should be drier. Could be picking up on drawing in some drier low level air which leads to more wetbulbing at precip onset then dynamic cooling takes over. It's possible. The key will be that low level component, most certainly. A more northerly isallobaric component will be good considering the reasons you mentioned, however any westerly component (i.e. NW wind) would lead to potential downslope drying effects, which is often the killer with MIller B's across our region. Seems to me our neck of the woods (I live in AA County, north of Rte 50) did decently well with a couple of 3-5" Miller Bs in Jan-Feb 2014. Then again, I believe the antecedent airmass in both events was much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur The SLP should start heading east very soon based off of these 3 hr. Pressure drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yes. It will be interesting to see what the 18Z Happy Hour GFS does, if it holds or what. Likewise, will the NAM/RGEM/SREF start moving that direction (we hope)? If short range models don't come on board and GFS holds it will make for one very tough forecast tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z UKMET looks like a step back from 0z, I really think the GFS might end up wrong this time, it's on it's own. Yeah, not that good, GFS was off on the precip shield for this coastal, GFS might cave in the next run or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z UKMET looks like a step back from 0z, I really think the GFS might end up wrong this time, it's on it's own. It's hard to interpret those maps but it looks like the area has cooled off at the surface by 6z. The orientation of the precip for the overnight monday/early tuesday part of the storm looks more Euroish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The key will be that low level component, most certainly. A more northerly isallobaric component will be good considering the reasons you mentioned, however any westerly component (i.e. NW wind) would lead to potential downslope drying effects, which is often the killer with MIller B's across our region. Seems to me our neck of the woods (I live in AA County, north of Rte 50) did decently well with a couple of 3-5" Miller Bs in Jan-Feb 2014. Then again, I believe the antecedent airmass in both events was much colder. This is a tricky setup for sure. I think the GFS is stronger with the inverted trough as well. It's sharper/more defined whereas the NAM and other short range guidance not so much. That feature unfortunately will be a driving factor for heavier bands. The exact location it sets up could mean big for accumulations. I spent my journeyman forecaster years in West Texas and the deformation band would always set up just north of us. We got screwed with light wet snow with a dusting to 1" and Amarillo would get nailed with 6+ each event. It was such a bear to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 If short range models don't come on board and GFS holds it will make for one very tough forecast tonight. Yes, indeed...and I don't envy being on that hot seat. The only (somewhat?) more certain thing right now is areas up toward the MD/PA border are in line to get a good amount, though the NAM is lighter even there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 FWIW, 12z GEFS mean has 999mb SLP in SE VA at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yes, indeed...and I don't envy being on that hot seat. The only (somewhat?) more certain thing right now is areas up toward the MD/PA border are in line to get a good amount, though the NAM is lighter even there. Will be interesting to see the 00z guidance...24hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Should be an WWA area wide. That will give them leeway to raise to WSW if needed for certain areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Should be an WWA area wide. That will give them leeway to raise to WSW if needed for certain areas Disagree.... I think the northern counties should be in a watch, since there is a real possibility of 5"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Pretty decent IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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