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Feb 8-9th Miller Boom or Bust Disco


Bob Chill

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I've been mostly worried about warm temps and crappy rates making it really hard to accumulate. Gfs and RGEM look pretty good in the temp dept. Surprisingly good IMHO.

If we short range trend into a winner I'm going to be pretty happy. If the euro looks good a watch could go up this afternoon.

Clown maps imply warning amounts, even into the city on north.  I definitely don't buy it.  I think you warrant a watch tho.  I'll keep to 1 to 2 for me.  

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4 straight runs of the GFS. Consistent and looking good. The max amounts have also shifted south from 00z last night. Warning level snows now from Loudoun, Moco, Baltimore and north.

 

It would be a big win for the GFS if it verifies.  It has a lot more snow up here than any other model, from what I can tell.

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Clown maps imply warning amounts, even into the city on north. I definitely don't buy it. I think you warrant a watch tho. I'll keep to 1 to 2 for me.

Agreed. I'd go 1-3" for DC/PG/AA and have a 3-5" swath cutting up along the fall line with higher amounts near the M/D line. That's if you buy the higher qpf solutions.
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Looking over the overnight runs, it appears that the GFS is a wet outlier around Maryland. 

 

Does anyone know anything about the DWD (German) ICON model?  It runs on a 13 km icosahedral grid four times a day.  FWIW, here's its total precipitation forecast:

 

YKvwXWt.gif

 

Like the GFS, it cut back on qpf from the 00z to 06z run.

Where can i find that DWD model?

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It would be a big win for the GFS if it verifies. It has a lot more snow up here than any other model, from what I can tell.

It held serve for the blizzard. I thought it was most consistent. It seems to be locking in a solution for this event. it might be a touch cold especially at onset, however...if the low strengthens as such to our south it will force a more northerly wind component ..air on the backside of the departing ocean storm should be drier. Could be picking up on drawing in some drier low level air which leads to more wetbulbing at precip onset then dynamic cooling takes over. It's possible.

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So genuine question: do people generally enjoy tracking these storms more than cut-and-dry storms (such as one with large consistent areas of predicted snow accumulation)? Or is it more of an annoyance than anything?

Can probably speak for most. We enjoy tracking anything. Snow is a gift and not a given in the MA.

Personally, my favorite part is when something is locked in in the short range and then it becomes an exercise of parsing fine details. Matt is the best in the subforum for that stuff.

Med to long lead stuff with sketchy details like this event are only fun if we produce. Otherwise it makes me want to walk the streets and throw acorns at squirrels and kick bunnies.

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So genuine question: do people generally enjoy tracking these storms more than cut-and-dry storms (such as one with large consistent areas of predicted snow accumulation)? Or is it more of an annoyance than anything?

 

We live and breathe this stuff.  We would be disappointed if we weren't annoyed, dismayed and shocked by models not giving us snow.

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So genuine question: do people generally enjoy tracking these storms more than cut-and-dry storms (such as one with large consistent areas of predicted snow accumulation)? Or is it more of an annoyance than anything?

 

Kind of a tough one to give a definitive answer to, but a couple of others have more or less echoed what most would probably agree with.  If there's a big event like the blizzard or Snowmageddon, I prefer the more honed in "we're going to get slammed!" solutions to show up early on and be consistent.  That's kind of fun, to see day after day having every major model show us with a HECS.  Then it's just a matter of pin-pointing certain details and mesoscale bands.

 

On the other hand...some of these "sneak up on you" events are fun as well.  As are the ones that appear dead and then suddenly come back to life big time.  They do have a certain level of boom or bust (hence the title in this thread!), and it's very frustrating to follow it only to have it fall right apart as game time gets here.  It's nerve wracking to see things go back and forth as this one has but when it does work...it's pretty cool.

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4 straight runs of the GFS. Consistent and looking good. The max amounts have also shifted south from 00z last night. Warning level snows now from Loudoun, Moco, Baltimore and north.

Kocin was unimpressed but his comments were before the 12z run.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

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It held serve for the blizzard. I thought it was most consistent. It seems to be locking in a solution for this event. it might be a touch cold especially at onset, however...if the low strengthens as such to our south it will force a more northerly wind component ..air on the backside of the departing ocean storm should be drier. Could be picking up on drawing in some drier low level air which leads to more wetbulbing at precip onset then dynamic cooling takes over. It's possible.

 

The key will be that low level component, most certainly. A more northerly isallobaric component will be good considering the reasons you mentioned, however any westerly component (i.e. NW wind) would lead to potential downslope drying effects, which is often the killer with MIller B's across our region.  Seems to me our neck of the woods (I live in AA County, north of Rte 50) did decently well with a couple of 3-5" Miller Bs in Jan-Feb 2014. Then again, I believe the antecedent airmass in both events was much colder.

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The key will be that low level component, most certainly. A more northerly isallobaric component will be good considering the reasons you mentioned, however any westerly component (i.e. NW wind) would lead to potential downslope drying effects, which is often the killer with MIller B's across our region. Seems to me our neck of the woods (I live in AA County, north of Rte 50) did decently well with a couple of 3-5" Miller Bs in Jan-Feb 2014. Then again, I believe the antecedent airmass in both events was much colder.

This is a tricky setup for sure. I think the GFS is stronger with the inverted trough as well. It's sharper/more defined whereas the NAM and other short range guidance not so much. That feature unfortunately will be a driving factor for heavier bands. The exact location it sets up could mean big for accumulations. I spent my journeyman forecaster years in West Texas and the deformation band would always set up just north of us. We got screwed with light wet snow with a dusting to 1" and Amarillo would get nailed with 6+ each event. It was such a bear to forecast

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If short range models don't come on board and GFS holds it will make for one very tough forecast tonight.

 

Yes, indeed...and I don't envy being on that hot seat.  The only (somewhat?) more certain thing right now is areas up toward the MD/PA border are in line to get a good amount, though the NAM is lighter even there.

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