mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Day 4 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 EURO digging for China @ 78 hoursYes it is, just hope it's not digging too much for us. Also would like that first low more out of the way to let this really develop better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Slp day four http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Day 5 slp http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Euro way more cloed off than the GFS at 96hrs 525dm low over south central Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The 1st low is tad bit closer compared to 12z, and it hurts the development of the 2nd low. Still not far from looking like the 12z RUN....good run in the grand scheme of things. Still getting development in the right place. Night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It's a decent run. Track is good for our area, gets the low under us. Decent qpf centered right over dc. A couple panels in the .1-.25 range. Nothing heavy but prolonged period of light to moderate. Temps an issue east of the fall line. That initial low hanging around probably mutes things a bit preventing a much bigger event on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Day 5 700mb rh http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The 1st low is tad bit closer compared to 12z, and it hurts the development of the 2nd low. Still not far from looking like the 12z RUN....good run in the grand scheme of things. Still getting development in the right place. Night all.Yea we usually don't want it still snowing in Boston from a low off cape cod when we're trying to get something to pop in the mid atlantic. Given that spacing a minor event is probably all we can achieve. Great h5 and slp track though. Get that first low out of the picture like the gfs and this has more potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Hmm weird there is a huge discrepancy between wxbell and stormvista on tonight's euro. I know often there are minor differences due to resolution but this is way more then that. They are significantly off by about 30 miles on the placement of the precip banding. Doesn't effect dc too much but makes a huge difference south and north near the edges. Wxbell is 30 miles or more further south. Sv clearly has the .1 qpf line into pa by a decent bit on 2 straight panels but on wxbell the same .1 barely makes it to Baltimore on one panel. One of them is obviously wrong. Maybe someone that gets accuweather txt can confirm later. ETA: they are also way off with the system tonight. So the discrepancy runs throughout. Sv is a good 20 miles west with the .1 qpf then wxbell. Looked at 12z and they have the same issue. Sb is 20-30 miles off compared to wxbell and it's not just resolution because it's off on both sides and with placement of heavier bands in spots. Anyone know what to make of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Para gfs gets that first low out of the way and has a healthier qpf field cause of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 If that OTS low screws this one up for us Ill be pissed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Going backwards with the spacing of the first low. Trend for it is to be closer to our developing storm. Hopefully we get rid of it faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 6z GFS still has some good development of our low () oddly enough relative to its other runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Going backwards with the spacing of the first low. Trend for it is to be closer to our developing storm. Hopefully we get rid of it faster. Yep, just as we were trending better with the follow up wave this damn 1st wave has to slow down....6z GFS has a lot of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yep, just as we were trending better with the follow up wave this damn 1st wave has to slow down....6z GFS has a lot of moisture.It gets blocked and the precip just keeps going and going. Id take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Just about all of this is snow. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+06+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Only a half an inch from tonight (tjat never fell) on here http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020506&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 so this 6z run jackpots us and leaves the next couple forums to our north and south with that empty feeling. perhaps we are the snow capital of the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Gem, gfs, para gfs, and euro all show the same thing now with euro the lightrst qpf. But euro is the only one that has that interaction with the se low. If it's wrong on that, it'll look like thevother models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Going backwards with the spacing of the first low. Trend for it is to be closer to our developing storm. Hopefully we get rid of it faster.Trend all winter has been closer to the coast, farther N and W with these lows. Bracing for the OTS system to follow this trend and likely screw us but hoping for the best. Cmon progressive El Nino stj.....show yourself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Any chance the 1st OTS wave slows so much that the followup energy somehow interacts with it? Or can the followup energy act as enough of a kicker that it boots the OTS wave even faster? What are our options at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Actually looked into more detail with the GFS with the 00Z runs and picked up on something I thought was interesting. Though we have been keying on the separation with the Atlantic low and the low forming on the east coast behind it, and rightfully so, it I think we need to pay more attention to some features and their interactions before hand. The feature we should probably be keying on is a low in Quebec. I have found that how much this Quebec low and and the energy diving down the trough interact as it is crossing into the states is actually keying on what we are seeing downstream in regards to the Atlantic low. Yesterdays 12Z Showing less interaction Todays 00Z showing more interaction. Now this initial interaction has downstream implications with what we then see with the Atlantic low. Yesterdays 12Z 48 hours later with less interaction. Today's 00Z 48 hours after more interaction As you can see the less interaction between the Quebec low and the energy diving south is actually giving that Quebec low, as it moves east, the ability to interact with the Atlantic low pulling it quickly north and absorbing it. Otherwise we are seeing that there is little to no interaction between these two lows and the Atlantic low meanders to the North East. This interplay between these three features was evident on the last 5 runs of the GFS. One other thing I noticed, for the most part (tonight's 00Z bucked that trend somewhat) is that with a more westerly and deeper dig with the energy diving down the trough we were seeing less interaction and a better outcome in the Atlantic. Now what this would all mean for what we could expect for the storm is just conjecture on my part but here goes. With more initial interaction between the Quebec low and the energy diving down we are probably looking at a more strung out low to our south and east pulling out to sea fairly quickly giving us a fairly long duration of light to moderate snow. A 3-6, 4-8 inch event for the most part would be my guess. Now with less initial interaction I think we have some fairly good potential. IFFFFFF in fact the less interaction scenario is based on a more westerly and deeper dig with the energy diving south we would probably then be looking at a much better trough placement and progression as it pulls north. We would also in most likelihood be looking at a prime pass a 500mb with a closed contour low to our south. I also think we would be looking at a true Miller B popping on the coast roughly in around the NC and Virginia border and then pulling North, northeastward up the coast as opposed to out to sea. I think in this case we would be looking at a 6-12 or maybe 12+ event. So in a nutshell, I think we need to pay attention to how the energy dives south as well as the amount of interaction between it and the Quebec low. Of course these are just ramblings on my part and maybe the weenie in me is coloring my views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Here is something I've noticed this morning. In the last three GFS runs, the offshore low in the Atlantic has retrograded to the west. Two or three more runs like that and it will be our main player. In the last 3 runs the low in the Wisconsin area has not really advanced toward us. Actually the low in southern Wisconsin at 0 z has moved NE into the Great Lakes region at 6z all the while the offshore storm keeps a steady pace westward. I think we better keep an eye on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Gem, gfs, para gfs, and euro all show the same thing now with euro the lightrst qpf. But euro is the only one that has that interaction with the se low. If it's wrong on that, it'll look like thevother models. euro is most amped with that first low. Pulls it all the way up off New England. Remove that and like you said it would probably be as good if not better then the others. The track couldnt be any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 6z GFS still has some good development of our low () oddly enough relative to its other runs.The gfs did trend worse with that stj low but it still wasn't nearly as bad as the euro. It's not a perfectly incremental correlation. Gfs is closer but still leaves enough space to allow the miller b to develop. The main reason is it still turns the stj system ene after nc. Euro pulls it all the way up off New England. Looking at the h5 heights and vorticity on the euro we are clearly inside the sphere of influence behind that low when the miller b is trying to develop. On the gfs were not. It's a troubling trend for sure. I want that darn stj low squashed to Bermuda because all it is is a potential dream killer but gfs as is still leaves enough room, barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looking at the Euro in regards to my previous post with the GFS and the interaction with the Quebec low possibly confirms my thoughts. The last four runs have been rock steady but the 5th run from 00Z on the 3rd seems to show that interplay. It shows the energy diving deeper down the trough with much less interaction between it and the low moving into Quebec. Subsequently the Quebec low is able to interact with the Atlantic low and pulls it rapidly north and east as to where it is already in and passing the 50/50 region when the coastal low is beginning to form. Compare that to todays 00Z run, where there is quit a bit of interplay between those two features in Canada and the subsequent location of the low as to where it is tucked in much further west and still down around New England. The difference is night and day. Edit: Just wanted to add the comparisons are in regards to the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Nice posts this morning. I have little to add. Track seems to be locking in with favorable slp to our south. The fine details are hair pullers. 6z gefs was nicely clustered and supports an acceptable event. EPS looks great on slp progression but stepped back a bit with accums for the reasons already articulated earlier. I really don't know how this one is going to break. I guess we'll get a better idea once the southern low is alive and kicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Nice posts this morning. I have little to add. Track seems to be locking in with favorable slp to our south. The fine details are hair pullers. 6z gefs was nicely clustered and supports an acceptable event. EPS looks great on slp progression but stepped back a bit with accums for the reasons already articulated earlier. I really don't know how this one is going to break. I guess we'll get a better idea once the southern low is alive and kicking. Seems like we're in a pretty good spot with the GFS/GEFS/EURO/EPS all agreeing on a favorable track. I'd be ok if the Euro was right and we ended up with a 2-4 type event for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 hehe 00z GFS gives Westminster 3.0" of snow from .55" QPF (lots of mixing) 06z GFS ups the ante to 12" of snow from .84" qpf (mixing early). gotta love the snow ratios Cobb puts out, 20:1 or more for nine hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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