NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 RGEM still rather dry but it is better on the 12z RUN. .1-.4" QPF of "snow" from meteocentre maps, more like the Euro in its location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Well, perhaps true for the 4km nest, but the 12km NAM parent is approx the same horizontal resolution as the GFS (~13km or so) and ECMWF (currently ~15km with the para at ~9km or so I think). The NAM does have better vertical resolution in the boundary layer. This is part of the reason that I almost exclusively look at the 4km nest and generally ignore the 12km parent. Great post. Appreciate it. I generally only trust meso's through 48 hours. 4k has done well in that range and so has the RGEM. In this particular case I strongly believe the complicated setup and still having the big southern storm in its early stages make meso output beyond 24 hours a little sketchy. I don't know if this is sound logic or not but it's what I'm thinking anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 What a waste of that ocean storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Well, perhaps true for the 4km nest, but the 12km NAM parent is approx the same horizontal resolution as the GFS (~13km or so) and ECMWF (currently ~15km with the para at ~9km or so I think). The NAM does have better vertical resolution in the boundary layer. This is part of the reason that I almost exclusively look at the 4km nest and generally ignore the 12km parent. Ah, thanks for that. Maybe give the NAM more weight for temps (at close in times)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 RGEM below freezing east of 95 from 9-12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 LWX still talking convection in their AFD with this upcoming snow event... should be interesting to see if that occurs and enhances snow rates/accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I wonder who lives north of 70? Area's he post's about get snow's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 MSLP of 1002mb in SW VA at 33 per IWM.... S VA at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 LWX still talking convection in their AFD with this upcoming snow event... should be interesting to see if that occurs and enhances snow rates/accums Interesting...didn't really pay attention to that before but I can see that being a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 1000mb SLP in SE VA at 42 per IWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Precip looks ok at 42, temps are good enough..surface is about 1.8 C in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Another jackpot for northern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Precip looks ok at 42, temps are good enough..surface is about 1.8 C in DC Just would need the rates, a'la Commutageddon or something, for a decent paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Sign me up for the gfs. Pretty cold surface through 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 If anyone else cares to nowcast the SE Coast low, the 'kicker' has essentially stalled and per WV loop the SE Low has begun a due N movement. Precip already quite a bit farther West than NAM guidance fwiw. Question is when does the Northward movement cease and become more Easterly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z GFS might be marginally better than 6z for non jackpot areas. Mt Parkton Jackpot, DC 3", BALT 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS is decently cold at the surface..around 33 for DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Parkton gets a foot based on Kuchera ratios. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Another jackpot for northern MD Snowmaps look pretty great again for the MD/PA border. Little area of 12 inches appears at 60 up there with around 3 inches making it down to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Sign me up for the gfs. Pretty cold surface through 18z. Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS absolutely crushes Northern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 If anyone else cares to nowcast the SE Coast low, the 'kicker' has essentially stalled and per WV loop the SE Low has begun a due N movement. Precip already quite a bit farther West than NAM guidance fwiw. Question is when does the Northward movement cease and become more Easterly? What, you're not going to post the CRAS for the 10th time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Parkton gets a foot based on Kuchera ratios. wow PSU is getting 14" then. I can't wait for Sparky's broom pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Ninja'd Consistent runs coming from the gfs. I know I don't live in a jack zone. Never so with iffy temp situations. A couple inches and hours and hours of snow falling would be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 What, you're not going to post the CRAS for the 10th time? Waiting for 12Z ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 PSU is getting 14" then. I can't wait for Sparky's broom pictures. If the GFS is right, this is looking like a true I-83 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Still going (albeit light) at 10p Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 If anyone else cares to nowcast the SE Coast low, the 'kicker' has essentially stalled and per WV loop the SE Low has begun a due N movement. Precip already quite a bit farther West than NAM guidance fwiw. Question is when does the Northward movement cease and become more Easterly? that is almost a different (if slightly related) event then the one we are tracking for our area in this thread. Your area still may have an outside chance to get fringed from the coastal so it's of way more interest to you then most of us.v we actually need to be rooting the opposite of you since our only shot is with a weaker coastal and better secondary. Nothing wrong with your interest but perhaps track it in the nyc forum where they will be rooting with you or create a seperate thread for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Consistent runs coming from the gfs. I know I don't live in a jack zone. Never so with iffy temp situations. A couple inches and hours and hours of snow falling would be perfect. I'd say 1 to 2 for DC proper...up by you, 2 to 4? Mt. Parkton, 4 to 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Parkton gets a foot based on Kuchera ratios. wow Guess it's a good thing I'm going to the store today, and planning on working from home Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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