Feb 8-9th Miller Boom or Bust Disco

[Ji]

GEFS has a ton of snow for us by day 14 wow

[Snowman.]

GEFS is pretty impressive for Tuesday

[Deck Pic]

Euro is a "decent" event for the usual jackpotters - MRB/OKV, maybe JYO

[Deck Pic]

[ravensrule]

Screen Shot 2016-02-07 at 1.11.13 AM.png

Over how long a period Matt?.

[Ji]

Euro is a "decent" event for the usual jackpotters - MRB/OKV, maybe JYO

looks worse than 12z

[MillvilleWx]

Euro is a "decent" event for the usual jackpotters - MRB/OKV, maybe JYO

I was pleased with the Euro run in general. The look was nice to see with the main QPF axis right through the MA. I'm not going all in with its total precip. For whatever reason, Euro Op has been a bit stingy with the overall QPF Max. Still not bad though, but I think with the type of setup, could easily be more precip in the hardest hit zone. Temps cooler than GFS too which was to be expected.

[Snowman.]

0z EPS mean is 3-4" areawide.

[ers-wxman1]

06z NAM reverts back to a non event.

[showmethesnow]

06Z GFS has come in a touch dryer. Has also shifted the precip field slightly south, 25-50 miles, and with that the snowfall maps have followed. Now instead of axis of heaviest snow being centered in southern PA it is now centered on the MD/PA line with an 8-12 inch jackpot. Instead of the 1-2 inches from the 00Z run DC is now running 3-5. Baltimore stays roughly the same.

[Ji]

Gfs is much colder.

[DDweatherman]

Gfs is much colder.

Definitely shows the best outcome of all the model runs we've seen recently.

[Joshfsu123]

06Z GFS has come in a touch dryer. Has also shifted the precip field slightly south, 25-50 miles, and with that the snowfall maps have followed. Now instead of axis of heaviest snow being centered in southern PA it is now centered on the MD/PA line with an 8-12 inch jackpot. Instead of the 1-2 inches from the 00Z run DC is now running 3-5. Baltimore stays roughly the same.

Most in DC would take 3-5 inches and run with it. We'll see. Think this will become clear on Monday when we are tracking in real time.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I'm kinda rooting for the first storm tbh. It's historic if it bombs as it's been modeled. Uber satellite images tomorrow.

Hug the CRAS then Ian....we both get nailed. Lock it in ;-)

[psuhoffman]

06Z GFS has come in a touch dryer. Has also shifted the precip field slightly south, 25-50 miles, and with that the snowfall maps have followed. Now instead of axis of heaviest snow being centered in southern PA it is now centered on the MD/PA line with an 8-12 inch jackpot. Instead of the 1-2 inches from the 00Z run DC is now running 3-5. Baltimore stays roughly the same.

Noise. The general idea is similar on most of the models now with vorts passing around the h5 low spinning up bands of precip along the inverted trough. These are somewhat convective in nature and the location will depend on exactly where the trough is at the time. We are at least in a spot where most guidance places that near or over us. But while a larger area could see 1-3" the area that gets dumped while seeing some serious totals could be very narrow and localized. Like I said yesterday good luck with that unless you can also predict exactly where thinderstorms will set up more then a few hours out. This will be a meso scale now cast thing. At least both the gfs euro and both their ens place the trough right through our area. Gives us an extra ace in the hand.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Euro para is a lot of not much out this way. Looks ok to the east.

Overnight runs were so-so out here. Gfs now looks the best. Touchy situation.

[showmethesnow]

Just looking into what will have to be considered in any forecast I don't envy the forecasters on this whatsoever. First off both the GFS and Euro are somewhat locked into how they see this evolve. Unfortunately they are somewhat at odds with each other irregardless of what the snowfall maps may suggest and this evident on the precip maps. GFS has an west to east strip that favors an axis located roughly around the MD/PA whereas the Euro has an almost north to south strip with the axis from central PA down to the mouth of the bay. The Euro is also cutting precip totals in half from what the GFS shows. Throw in the fact that there will probably be a fairly tight gradient from the Norlan/Pseudo Norlan feature that will probably put the lie to the smoothed out precip fields being displayed and you have a very challenging forecast to make. None of this even takes into account the marginal temps in the southern and eastern regions nor the possibility of higher ratios within the the heavier band. If that wasn't enough there is now even talk of convective elements as well. As it looks now I would not be surprised to see people within 25 miles of each talking about how their forecast busted and it will be for the exact opposite reason.

[psuhoffman]

Hug the CRAS then Ian....we both get nailed. Lock it in ;-)

That thing is such a colossal waste of money and someone's time.

[showmethesnow]

Noise. The general idea is similar on most of the models now with vorts passing around the h5 low spinning up bands of precip along the inverted trough. These are somewhat convective in nature and the location will depend on exactly where the trough is at the time. We are at least in a spot where most guidance places that near or over us. But while a larger area could see 1-3" the area that gets dumped while seeing some serious totals could be very narrow and localized. Like I said yesterday good luck with that unless you can also predict exactly where thinderstorms will set up more then a few hours out. This will be a meso scale now cast thing. At least both the gfs euro and both their ens place the trough right through our area. Gives us an extra ace in the hand.

Have to agree, this is for the most part noise but I do have to question if the southward progression of the precip field is actually a continuation of the general trend we have seen over the last day and a half or so with the gfs.

[Kevin Reilly]

Just looking into what will have to be considered in any forecast I don't envy the forecasters on this whatsoever. First off both the GFS and Euro are somewhat

locked into how they see this evolve. Unfortunately they are somewhat at odds with each other irregardless of what the snowfall maps may suggest and this evident on the precip maps. GFS has an west to east strip that favors an axis located roughly around the MD/PA whereas the Euro has an almost north to south strip with the axis from central PA down to the mouth of the bay. The Euro is also cutting precip totals in half from what the GFS shows. Throw in the fact that there will probably be a fairly tight gradient from the Norlan/Pseudo Norlan feature that will probably put the lie to the smoothed out precip fields being displayed and you have a very challenging forecast to make. None of this even takes into account the marginal temps in the southern and eastern regions nor the possibility of higher ratios within the the heavier band. If that wasn't enough there is now even talk of convective elements as well. As it looks now I would not be surprised to see people within 25 miles of each talking about how their forecast busted and it will be for the exact opposite reason.

This will be difficult to forecast at best I remember the boom and bust Feb 3rd to 4th 2009 we got 7.3" here Media pa Delaware County while poor souls 30mi northeast and southwest got clouds passing by the moon and pixie dust. This ivrt through was complete with lightning and thunder as the band trained over the same area for 4-6 hrs...the big winner was Glouscter County NJ 14" localized spot..

Now looking at things this AM storm down south not there yet 2 co located centers arguing weaker storm probably moves out quicker and weaker. South Carolina friends and Ga friends ripped off little to no snow high reso showed 6"+ right...I think things for us especially just north and south 30 miles either side of pa / md border hon in on the invrt trough and some pick up 6-10" of snow with lolli of 12"+ in isloated areas maybe centered over on top of pa md line to southern Delaware County pa

[mitchnick]

0z para gfs qpf thru 87 hrs. It's the most recent run.

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_087_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160207+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=

[Voyager]

That thing is such a colossal waste of money and someone's time.

 

That's too bad though. That CRAS image is a thing of beauty that would make a lot of folks very happy. Funny how the worst models seem to show the best scenario...

[PhineasC]

Noise. The general idea is similar on most of the models now with vorts passing around the h5 low spinning up bands of precip along the inverted trough. These are somewhat convective in nature and the location will depend on exactly where the trough is at the time. We are at least in a spot where most guidance places that near or over us. But while a larger area could see 1-3" the area that gets dumped while seeing some serious totals could be very narrow and localized. Like I said yesterday good luck with that unless you can also predict exactly where thinderstorms will set up more then a few hours out. This will be a meso scale now cast thing. At least both the gfs euro and both their ens place the trough right through our area. Gives us an extra ace in the hand.

Don't start this again. You know damn well the band will be over your house.

[showmethesnow]

0z para gfs qpf thru 87 hrs. It's the most recent run.

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_087_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160207+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=

Very similar look to the Euro with the band running north to south instead of west to east.

[showmethesnow]

This will be difficult to forecast at best I remember the boom and bust Feb 3rd to 4th 2009 we got 7.3" here Media pa Delaware County while poor souls 30mi northeast and southwest got clouds passing by the moon and pixie dust. This ivrt through was complete with lightning and thunder as the band trained over the same area for 4-6 hrs...the big winner was Glouscter County NJ 14" localized spot..

Now looking at things this AM storm down south not there yet 2 co located centers arguing weaker storm probably moves out quicker and weaker. South Carolina friends and Ga friends ripped off little to no snow high reso showed 6"+ right...I think things for us especially just north and south 30 miles either side of pa / md border hon in on the invrt trough and some pick up 6-10" of snow with lolli of 12"+ in isloated areas maybe centered over on top of pa md line to southern Delaware County pa

Glad you are fairly confidant.  If I had to throw something out I would probably side with you where the axis of heaviest snow was centered on the PA/MD border but I wouldn't put good money on it. Though the models seemed somewhat locked in this is such a convoluted setup I would not be surprised if a curve ball or two were thrown at us. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

That thing is such a colossal waste of money and someone's time.

Completely agree and I am sorry for even bothering to post it. It certainly does make for good eye candy from time to time tho :-)

[Kevin Reilly]

Glad you are fairly confidant. If I had to throw something out I would probably side with you where the axis of heaviest snow was centered on the PA/MD border but I wouldn't put good money on it. Though the models seemed somewhat locked in this is such a convoluted setup I would not be surprised if a curve ball or two were thrown at us.

Yes totally agree with you as I opened tough forecast at best mets have their hands full and it is not irresponsible to say if and then with this one but lay out the possibilities.

[cae]

Euro para is a lot of not much out this way. Looks ok to the east.

Overnight runs were so-so out here. Gfs now looks the best. Touchy situation.

 

Looking over the overnight runs, it appears that the GFS is a wet outlier around Maryland. 

 

Does anyone know anything about the DWD (German) ICON model?  It runs on a 13 km icosahedral grid four times a day.  FWIW, here's its total precipitation forecast:

 

 

Like the GFS, it cut back on qpf from the 00z to 06z run.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Completely agree and I am sorry for even bothering to post it. It certainly does make for good eye candy from time to time tho :-)

 

Yes, it sure can provide that now and then!!  It still holds its one lucky "championship" by getting the Jan. 30, 2010 event correct (I think that's the storm it got right?), only winning by blocking a fluke fake punt and running it back to the end zone as time ran out...ha!  Or by heaving up a half-court shot at the buzzer that bounces around and goes in.  Take your pick! 

 

Anyhow, I have not been following the event for Monday night/Tuesday very much at all the last couple of days, but looking through the discussion on the past two pages, looks like it might actually be trying to get revived.  Most of what I get, which others have said many times already, is that it's a very complicated setup and interaction.  Certainly for pin-pointing the heaviest snow band(s) and where exactly they wind up.  Might be a lot of now-casting.  But keeping expectations reasonable, cannot be overly disappointed to at least see something area-wide.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Last nights GEFS is pretty impressive, a lot more members showing 2+ inches for DC than at 12z yesterday.  I'd be interested to know how they look for 6z.  Also, as Ji noted GFS is much colder and surface freezing line is now near DC when it's snowing.  Great trends.