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Feb 8-9th Miller Boom or Bust Disco


Bob Chill

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GGEM is very disorganized and has a area of precip from Northern NY south to DC and briefly to VA. 20s in the same area as the GFS for northern MD into PA then everyone warms above 32. South and SE of 70 never gets below freezing. SE wind there just like the GFS.

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And cold as it's going to be next week starting Wednesday, it's a shame we can shave a few degrees off surface temps. Upstairs, temps are not bad at all. He!!, thicknesses while the gfs has it raining are only in the upper 520's. That's an epic screwgy to get rain with those thicknesses.

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Epic troughs do that. Someone is going to get a 12 spot. Won't know until It's falling.

Just took a closer look at the text output and 850's get really low up our way. Over .4 QPF falls with 850's at -8 on the back end. Of course that is assuming the GFS solution has some validity. If it were to play out as depicted on this run someone may very well exceed a foot.

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And cold as it's going to be next week starting Wednesday, it's a shame we can shave a few degrees off surface temps. Upstairs, temps are not bad at all. He!!, thicknesses while the gfs has it raining are only in the upper 520's. That's an epic screwgy to get rain with those thicknesses.

I don't think that happens. With decent precip that cold gets pulled right down.

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   there is a well-documented problem with GFS 2-m temps over snowpack - does some really crazy drops that sometimes fluctuate.   EMC land-sfc team working on them, although it won't be fixed in the upcoming upgrade.

 

 

GFS 2m temps are silly.. what a stupid product. It's printing out absurd numbers given the 850 temps. Snow cover or something.

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there is a well-documented problem with GFS 2-m temps over snowpack - does some really crazy drops that sometimes fluctuate. EMC land-sfc team working on them, although it won't be fixed in the upcoming upgrade.

It looks sorta ok after sys but day 8 is wonky. Has -40 departure sfc temps over the snow pack and 850s aren't supportive.
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