clueless Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS putting out over an inch of precip here. I can't see that happening somehow. OK. Slap yourself. Do I have to call Jeb in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 How bout the on and off flurries that stay in the region for most of the week after the steady precip winds down. When does that ever happen in the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Dang GFS is too far north with the max...100 miles south would be perfect. All about where the deepening starts...GFS further north...NAM south and east. Max snow is serious business. I like how LWX tossed in the chance for thunderstorms in the AFD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I like how LWX tossed in the chance for thunderstorms in the AFD... I guarantee you that the 6 hour period from 48-54 on the GFS where DC gets 0.6" would have had at least thunder rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 -20 850S into NE MD and Near 0 with a -10-15 windchill cant wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 We don't usually get Norluns here but when we do they are rockin. Now if it could just trend about 50 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 90 hrs. Wow. A foot is 10 minutes from Mappy. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020700&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=090 We need that to push 10 minutes south of Mappy. Let the urban area shut down. I could use some time off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Has had 500mb on its side in general. GFS has three separate nice passes heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 We need that to push 10 minutes south of Mappy. Let the urban area shut down. I could use some time off!Sorry, nobody will believe that you got 14" of snow so you're expected into work on time every day next week. ;-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GGEM is very disorganized and has a area of precip from Northern NY south to DC and briefly to VA. 20s in the same area as the GFS for northern MD into PA then everyone warms above 32. South and SE of 70 never gets below freezing. SE wind there just like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Epic troughs do that. Someone is going to get a 12 spot. Won't know until It's falling. Yeah, but we could make a very educated guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 And cold as it's going to be next week starting Wednesday, it's a shame we can shave a few degrees off surface temps. Upstairs, temps are not bad at all. He!!, thicknesses while the gfs has it raining are only in the upper 520's. That's an epic screwgy to get rain with those thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Epic troughs do that. Someone is going to get a 12 spot. Won't know until It's falling. Just took a closer look at the text output and 850's get really low up our way. Over .4 QPF falls with 850's at -8 on the back end. Of course that is assuming the GFS solution has some validity. If it were to play out as depicted on this run someone may very well exceed a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 And cold as it's going to be next week starting Wednesday, it's a shame we can shave a few degrees off surface temps. Upstairs, temps are not bad at all. He!!, thicknesses while the gfs has it raining are only in the upper 520's. That's an epic screwgy to get rain with those thicknesses. I don't think that happens. With decent precip that cold gets pulled right down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS 2m temps are silly.. what a stupid product. It's printing out absurd numbers given the 850 temps. Snow cover or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 We need that to push 10 minutes south of Mappy. Let the urban area shut down. I could use some time off! Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS 2m temps are silly.. what a stupid product. It's printing out absurd numbers given the 850 temps. Snow cover or something. They are ridiculous however the Euro did have 850's at -25 for the region the last 2 runs. GFS is only -15 for the same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 UKMET looks like it would be decent based off the hr 60 SLP position IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I think it helps that the uber storm that goes OTS is a bit weaker on the 0z GFS.... very good run overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 there is a well-documented problem with GFS 2-m temps over snowpack - does some really crazy drops that sometimes fluctuate. EMC land-sfc team working on them, although it won't be fixed in the upcoming upgrade. GFS 2m temps are silly.. what a stupid product. It's printing out absurd numbers given the 850 temps. Snow cover or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 there is a well-documented problem with GFS 2-m temps over snowpack - does some really crazy drops that sometimes fluctuate. EMC land-sfc team working on them, although it won't be fixed in the upcoming upgrade.It looks sorta ok after sys but day 8 is wonky. Has -40 departure sfc temps over the snow pack and 850s aren't supportive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 lock the CMC for the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 can go crazy cold Good to know. Are we talking about warm bias or cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 lock the CMC for the win 0z looks pretty lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 lock the CMC for the win CMC brings scattered snow showers and nothing significant to anyone in the area. It really explodes the OTS storm and blasts SNE to Nova Scotia, taking away any energy from this system. No thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm kinda rooting for the first storm tbh. It's historic if it bombs as it's been modeled. Uber satellite images tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Sorry meant the GFS... couple too many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm kinda rooting for the first storm tbh. It's historic if it bombs as it's been modeled. Uber satellite images tomorrow. translation: I'd rather see cool storm images than get an inch of slop while jackpotville jackpots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gefs out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gefs out yet? GEFS snowfall looks pretty darn good. there are some big hits in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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