yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Is that a SLP in SE VA at 51 on the 00z GFS? 998 over Delmarva at 54? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS is really tasty in terms of precipitation for DC... but we're in the upper 30s even when (whatever precipitation type) is coming down moderately-heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS Its a great run in terms of precipitation. But surface temps are scorching. Euro and NAM don't get nowhere near 40 degrees like the GFS is saying and I would have to favor them in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Snowfall thru 75 hrs. Getting better. Improvement from 18z run. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020700&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=075 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 for all this talk of "scorching" temps, I looked at the soundings and it's really not as bad as its made out to be. It's 35 at the surface at the highest point when precip hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's better. I've noticed the trough keeps getting more and more narrow. Really evident on this run if you looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Interesting upside qpf trends. Temp issues have been present for a couple days. So have qpf issues. But so far 0z has been kind. It's still an "event" and we're getting close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Snowfall thru 75 hrs. Getting better. Improvement from 18z run. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020700&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=075 Wow. It snows for a long time. for all this talk of "scorching" temps, I looked at the soundings and it's really not as bad as its made out to be. It's 35 at the surface at the highest point when precip hits. I'm just looking at instant weather maps, so the maps may be crappy. But our temperatures are between 3-4 degrees celsius (37-39 degrees fahrenheit) during our most productive period (48-54). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 So I guess we have to ask ourselves....do we feel lucky. Well,...do we {punks}? Hell yeah, I feel damn lucky if I lived in Paeonian Springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Wow. It snows for a long time. I'm just looking at instant weather maps, so the maps may be crappy. But our temperatures are between 3-4 degrees celsius (37-39 degrees fahrenheit) during our most productive period (48-54). And that period is during the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 90 hrs. Wow. A foot is 10 minutes from Mappy. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020700&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=090 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is looking better. The low is deepening quickly and precip shield could very well expand larger than what is being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Wow. It snows for a long time. I'm just looking at instant weather maps, so the maps may be crappy. But our temperatures are between 3-4 degrees celsius (37-39 degrees fahrenheit) during our most productive period (48-54). Yeah, I was looking at the wrong period (just after that)..but I dunno...hopefully rates and lack of sunlight will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This GFS run kind of does what I thought the NAM-4km was going to do earlier, but I stood corrected. Nice QPF bump for a lot of folks in the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This "narrow" band of precip seems to be expanding as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Interesting upside qpf trends. Temp issues have been present for a couple days. So have qpf issues. But so far 0z has been kind. It's still an "event" and we're getting close18z gfs started a trend as 0z has made some impressive improvements on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is looking better. The low is deepening quickly and precip shield could very well expand larger than what is being shown. Yes. Definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Here our our sfc temps from 48-54 on weatherbell. DCA gets 0.6" in this period, which could easily be a heavy thump of wet snow if surface temperatures were, say, 33-34. 48: 54: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 If the band is heavy enough with rates, dynamical cooling should overcome that IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z gfs started a trend as 0z has mafe some impressive improvements on it. If anyone in the forum gets into decent rates you have to figure temps are going to quickly drop to freezing if not a couple degrees below especially at night during the first 1/3 of february. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS keeps Northern MD bellow freezing throughout after it starts temps fall into the 20s north of 70. Through 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is going to be an epic nowcasting event. Right now I'd favor South Central PA and N MD, NW VA as the best spot to be, but who knows. SOMEONE is going to see 6-12", but it is going to be a true nowcasting event to see where that norlun sets up. There is going to be a stripe of Mod/Heavy snow that sits on someone for hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 If anyone in the forum gets into decent rates you have to figure temps are going to quickly drop to freezing if not a couple degrees below especially at night during the first 1/3 of february. Yeah, thats why I don't neccesarily buy the GFS sfc temps from 48-54... like yoda said, one would imagine 0.6" of precipitation in 6 hours would produce some sort of dynamic cooling, yet the GFS shows none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS pulling a S-SE wind near DC and southern MD that's why its warmer there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Thunderstorms, you say LWX? AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC928 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATE ON WINTRY WX MON AND TUE...P-TYPE ISSUES EARLY AND LACK OFA WELL DEFINED LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND INFLOW OF GULF ORATLC MOISTURE STRONGLY SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A MINOR SNOW EVENT.LOW-LEVEL TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR AN ALL SNOWEVENT MON AND MON NIGHT SO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR WET SNOWLIKELY. COLUMN DOES NOT GET SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOWUNTIL TUE AND BY THAT TIME THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEPARTING AS WINDSBECOME WESTERLY. ONE NOTEWORTHY ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM IS VERY COLDAIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD SUPPORTCONVECTION. SEVERAL STABILITY INDICES SUCH AS K...LIFTED ANDSHOWALTER INDICES SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY ENHANCEPRECIP RATES. AT THIS TIME...EVERYTHING POINTS OUT TO ADVISORYLEVEL EVENT WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Overall, the GFS would have been a run if temperatures were a little cooler. Total precipitation is 0.8" for DC. Very close to a heavy thump of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hell yeah, I feel damn lucky if I lived in Paeonian Springs. lol jeb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS putting out over an inch of precip here. I can't see that happening somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Dang GFS is too far north with the max...100 miles south would be perfect. All about where the deepening starts...GFS further north...NAM south and east. Max snow is serious business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.