Ji Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The 18z and the 00z are pretty much the goal post of possibilities with 18z the worst case...non event and 00z the best case. Crazy. Let's see if the GFS keeps it going tonight. kind of looks like the euro from last night but more north with the qpf distribution. Euro last night had some 1 inch liquid amounts south of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 kind of looks like the euro from last night but more north with the qpf distribution. Euro last night had some 1 inch liquid amounts south of DC Maybe this is the right trend. All we need is the low to deepen just south and east and off the coast. That will expand the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I guess we need to start believing that the stripe will be fairly prolific even if small. Somebody might do fairly well. Who get the goods is guessworthy at best. Right now the conundrum is temps are bad where the best precip falls. I could easily see an area with lower precip totals putting up the biggest snow totals. NAM P-Type radar argues that its snow during the day Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NAM P-Type radar argues that its snow during the day Tuesday IWM suggest temps stay below 35 pretty much region wide on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Too bad its the NAM... this looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looks like 00z RGEM is further east as well with the giant low... no big storm for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12km NAM looks pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Too bad its the NAM... this looks decent I get half an inch That would be pretty good Arlington screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12km NAM looks pretty decent That was the snow accum map I posted above from TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I get half an inch That would be pretty good Arlington screwjob. lolwut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's times like now when I wish I lived on a Mt. Tolland, MD We have a spare room... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 lolwut Its a pretty good run for most people. But there is a precipitation hole just west of DC. I do only get 0.5-1" according to that snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That was the snow accum map I posted above from TT Nice maybe I should look closer ;-) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NAM P-Type radar argues that its snow during the day TuesdayI just checked soundings imby and it is definitely cold enough for snow then and that snowfall map looks accurate based on those soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 What is kind of sad is that if we could somehow shift the entire atmosphere like 200 miles west, we'd be talking about the storm of the century. That low out in the Atlantic is a god damn beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 image.jpg We have a spare room... Marcus lives on Ebbvale Road too. I snore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Time for the GFS to follow the NAM's lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 There is going to be a norlun, that is a lock. Where that sets up will honestly be a nowcasting event. Feb 2009 there was a norlun over Philly....Most models had us in the .4-.5 range.....parts of S Philly and S NJ got like 10-12" because a heavy band sat over tyherm for like 3-4 hours. You never know with these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looks like 00z RGEM is further east as well with the giant low... no big storm for NYCThat was my benchmark for keeping us in the game. I simply noticed that any run the last few days that crushes nyc with the coaatal ends bad for us. The storm staying east of nyc by no means locks a good result for us, plenty of runs missed nyc and still found a way to miss us either south like today's euro or north like 12z gfs but at least we are still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 If you guys are curious, this was the last norlun, and one of my analogs for this storm....Look @ the radar images, pretty cool http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2009/03-Feb-09.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 There is going to be a norlun, that is a lock. Where that sets up will honestly be a nowcasting event. Feb 2009 there was a norlun over Philly....Most models had us in the .4-.5 range.....parts of S Philly and S NJ got like 10-12" because a heavy band sat over tyherm for like 3-4 hours. You never know with these things. So I guess we have to ask ourselves....do we feel lucky. Well,...do we {punks}? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 So I guess we have to ask ourselves....do we feel lucky. Well,...do we {punk}? Do you feel lucky weather weenie? Well, do ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nam bullseye for Nokesville...i won't be here Me either. Work travel. Sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Marcus lives on Ebbvale Road too. I snore.Yea funny story about that. Years ago when we used to chat on eastern I knew he lived in this area and he had described a feature of his property that is fairly unique. We moved into a house on top of the ridge here back in May and I just realized a few weeks ago when taking a walk on one of our nicer days that his house is literally like 6 houses down the mountain from me. I have no idea if he still lives there though, I know he was considering moving back to the plains at one time and we lost touch when the whole eastern thing blew up. I Stayed out of that, I get along with everyone and want to keep it that way. Life's too short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is how is will work out. Some will be happy,, Many will be mad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 LWX made some changes to their winter maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hell...Psu ...I might come for 350' extra ...lol. amazing micro climate here and we get just dumped with precip rain and snow. The only thing that sucks is the wind. We're right on top of dug hill ridge and the views are amazing but my god it shakes the house when the wind gets going. And if it's a dry snow like jan 22 and windy then half my snow will blow into the trees. That's why I like wet snow more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS is nothing for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Do you feel lucky weather weenie? Well, do ya? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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