mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 3 weenies in a row. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NAM looks good DC north at 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nam is east with the first storm. No 6" storm for NYC. We're good.Maybe this is weird and it's not about being petty because I have no problem if Iowa or Boston get a blizzard snd I get shut out because they are so far away in totally different climo zones but if I'm not going to get any snow sorry but it's a lot easier to take if the storm is 300 miles away, not nailing philly or nyc just east of me and two places that have worse snow climo then me. So even if nothing comes of the secondary at least I don't have to look at the dark clouds to my east and shake my fist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Sim radar at 42 hrs suggests the ocean storm only grazes Boston http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_042_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160207+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 And thus shows why you still can't use the nam as the basis for any forecast just because it got lucky 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Well now to hope the nam nam's us like it is supposed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 SLP jumps east again at H54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looks like a better run through H60. Low turns north, deepening with inverted trough across our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NAM precip max looks like Euro to me so far (through 57) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nam brings the area of heavier precip to just south of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 63 hrs total qpf http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=063ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_063_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160207+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 SLP jumps east again at H54. thats the biggest issue...it was coming north a few days ago from that location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Much better run than 18z. I'm encouraged though still a dicey pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's a better run for us. Whether it's correct or not, anybody's guess. I'm curious as to whether the European models hold to their solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Still going bonkers over us at H66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That's an impressive precip. map, unfortunately it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 CAD is much better on this run, looks like the euro will win again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Still going bonkers over us at H66 ha for getting nammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Once daylight hits, dam surface temps really jump on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looks like a secondary low forms over the trough closer to the coast with precip ongoing through 21z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 78 hrs qpf total http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_078_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160207+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 I guess we need to start believing that the stripe will be fairly prolific even if small. Somebody might do fairly well. Who get the goods is guessworthy at best. Right now the conundrum is temps are bad where the best precip falls. I could easily see an area with lower precip totals putting up the biggest snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 longest storm ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 CAD is much better on this run, looks like the euro will win again. CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 78 hrs qpf total http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_078_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160207+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model looks like over an inch in the bullseye area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is nuts...it precipitates into Midnight Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I guess we need to start believing that the stripe will be fairly prolific even if small. Somebody might do fairly well. Who get the goods is guessworthy at best. Right now the conundrum is temps are bad where the best precip falls. I could easily see an area with lower precip totals putting up the biggest snow totals. It's times like now when I wish I lived on a Mt. Tolland, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Qpf nearing 1.0" in spots on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nam bullseye for Nokesville...i won't be here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The 18z and the 00z are pretty much the goal post of possibilities with 18z the worst case...non event and 00z the best case. Crazy. Let's see if the GFS keeps it going tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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