clueless Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 What did the para NAM show? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z Para Euro is out on WxBell.. it's wetter than the operational and quite a bit colder than the GFS, good hit west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It's hard for me to believe we see 3-6" west of I-95 from this. Seems more like a 1 to 3 inch with lucky people getting the 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z Para Euro is out on WxBell.. it's wetter than the operational and quite a bit colder than the GFS, good hit west of 95. I am curious how wet! Not at home yet to look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'd like to keep these maps -- http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter (for the upcoming "event") when looking at the most likely and Max potential maps and seeingbthey are both 4" I tgink of the line from princess bride "I do not think that word means what you think it means" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 para Operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z Euro Para is wetter overall, especially south and west of DC, but it has a similar precip max as the OP, down near EZF/Nrthn Neck. Surface temps, while slightly better than the OP, will be an issue especially along and east of I-95, unless you can score the heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18z RGEM shows some potential. 850's are around -5c. Decent precip and better than average 700rh. Also, it shows mixed precip over some of the area vs. rain. It only goes to 54 hours so it's early in the game. I'll post a couple maps but there's a drop down menu where there's all sorts of stuff. Precip type http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=PT&hh=054&map=na&stn2=WW700&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo Precip field http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=PNMPR&hh=054&map=na&stn2=PT&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo 850's http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=TT850&hh=054&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18z RGEM shows some potential. 850's are around -5c. Decent precip and better than average 700rh. Also, it shows mixed precip over some of the area vs. rain. It only goes to 54 hours so it's early in the game. I'll post a couple maps but there's a drop down menu where there's all sorts of stuff. Precip type http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=PT&hh=054&map=na&stn2=WW700&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo Precip field http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=PNMPR&hh=054&map=na&stn2=PT&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo 850's http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=TT850&hh=054&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo LOL...you mean for Baltimore, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 LOL...you mean for Baltimore, right?That is where he lives isn't it?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 So, I'll take the GFS. .77" qpf for Westminster, only .1 or so lost to rain/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is what I posted on FB. It's for DC only. "My thoughts on the Monday/Tuesday "snow" event for DC proper. LOW CONFIDENCE. This is a really disorganized system, and not a traditional snow producing set up for DC. The models are not on the same page either, which is making it an even tougher forecast. Intermittent rain will arrive sometime Monday afternoon and occasionally mix with snow especially as we head late into the evening. It will be warm, so I don't expect any accumulation unless we get into a heavier band. Our best chance of accumulation will be overnight and into early morning, as temps drop to the 32-34 range. IF we can time this period with some heavier snow, we may score a couple inches. There will be a heavier band of precip. Where it sets up and when it happens is uncertain right now. Tuesday, I think we warm up quickly, though we may see some periods of light snow/mix through midday or early afternoon. If you like snow, keep expectations very low, and we might be able to score something modest. The pattern gets colder and much less hostile as we head toward next weekend and beyond. So I don't think our snow chances are over. We should have a better snow pattern, mid month." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 So, I'll take the GFS. .77" qpf for Westminster, only .1 or so lost to rain/snow Yeah, I'd feel good about that too. It may not snow if the temps aren't good, but it might. In other words, it might snow at 34 degrees and accumulate, or it may not. If there's no precip, then there's an absolute certainty that it won't snow. People probably get tired of me beating this drum, but give me precip and lets see what happens. Timing looks good up your way as well. Looks like most of the precip starts after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is what I posted on FB. It's for DC only. "My thoughts on the Monday/Tuesday "snow" event for DC proper. LOW CONFIDENCE. This is a really disorganized system, and not a traditional snow producing set up for DC. The models are not on the same page either, which is making it an even tougher forecast. Intermittent rain will arrive sometime Monday afternoon and occasionally mix with snow especially as we head late into the evening. It will be warm, so I don't expect any accumulation unless we get into a heavier band. Our best chance of accumulation will be overnight and into early morning, as temps drop to the 32-34 range. IF we can time this period with some heavier snow, we may score a couple inches. There will be a heavier band of precip. Where it sets up and when it happens is uncertain right now. Tuesday, I think we warm up quickly, though we may see some periods of light snow/mix through midday or early afternoon. If you like snow, keep expectations very low, and we might be able to score something modest. The pattern gets colder and much less hostile as we head toward next weekend and beyond. So I don't think our snow chances are over. We should have a better snow pattern, mid month." Good write-up Matt and spot on for us. Not to beat a dead horse but it's all about if we can score a heavier band/precip max especially overnight. Para Euro would be good for us if we could shift the max north 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Just trying to catch up. Anyone have the Para CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Just trying to catch up. Anyone have the Para CRAS? Huge hit, Raleigh to Boston...12"+ uniform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nice writeup Matt. Feel the exact same way for my hood. Would be nice for the stripe on the euro & para to shift 50 miles north. In the realm of possibility assuming it exists in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah, I'd feel good about that too. It may not snow if the temps aren't good, but it might. In other words, it might snow at 34 degrees and accumulate, or it may not. If there's no precip, then there's an absolute certainty that it won't snow. People probably get tired of me beating this drum, but give me precip and lets see what happens. Timing looks good up your way as well. Looks like most of the precip starts after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hey look, I'm funny without trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hey look, I'm funny without trying. I did have a good laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I did have a good laugh I'll sleep better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'll sleep better. Oh good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'd take .25 with temps at 25 than .75 in the mid 30's all day long. Unless the .75 falls in less than 6 hours of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The reality of just how awesome the dream scenario HECS was when I look at this event. We tracked a massive storm for days and it delivered for the entire forum with hours of snow and no mixing and reached climo in two days. May be a long time before we see that again. Now we are tracking weak precip with marginal temps. Awake now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 SREF They go nuts with the coastal like the 18z nam. Like I said earlier if nyc gets 6"+ from that were toast. Stef back 3-4" all the way to philly from that. Our 1" pity mean is from a couple members target snow from the coastal all the way here. There is no second event it's swallowedup by the raging storm off the coast. We should know soon. That event is getting pretty short term so I would suspect tonight at 0z the models will either make a major move towards the nam idea or not. If they don't at least we are still in the game to get lucky from the weird inverted trough thingy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 At hour 30, the HP in eastern Canada has jumped up to 1037. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nam is east with the first storm. No 6" storm for NYC. We're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nam is east with the first storm. No 6" storm for NYC. We're good. Whew!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 They go nuts with the coastal like the 18z nam. Like I said earlier if nyc gets 6"+ from that were toast. Stef back 3-4" all the way to philly from that. Our 1" pity mean is from a couple members target snow from the coastal all the way here. There is no second event it's swallowedup by the raging storm off the coast. We should know soon. That event is getting pretty short term so I would suspect tonight at 0z the models will either make a major move towards the nam idea or not. If they don't at least we are still in the game to get lucky from the weird inverted trough thingy.Sim radar at 42 hrs suggests the ocean storm only grazes Bostonhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_042_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160207+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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