yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z NAVGEM is decent at 78 and 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z EURO at 60 has a 1005 SLP in C NC 66 -- 1002 mb SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looking at 700mb rh, day 3 euro looks promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looking at 700mb rh, day 3 euro looks promising http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Day 4 700mb rh http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nope euro stinks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'd call that a cave. DCA gets .1" of white rain. DCA gets decent precipitation, .4". But the problem is its like .1" per 6 hours spread out over a 24 hour period with temps in the upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Heavy precip still to our south in VA thru 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 The whole thing is little pieces spinning around the ul trough. Nothing amplifies and there is no area of good dynamics. At least not over land. Still a precip bullseye but in the northern neck this time. It's dirty messy jacked up progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'd call that a cave. DCA gets .1" of white rain. Euro has the band in VA instead of LI. Not a cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Heaviest QPF is EZF south and east to Northern Neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'd call that a cave. DCA gets .1" of white rain. Not really a cave, it has its max precip in southern Virginia while the GFS has it in Southeastern PA. They miss us in different ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not really a cave, it has its max precip in southern Virginia while the GFS has it in Southeastern PA. They miss us in different ways. It's weird how the trough spits out a couple pieces on the euro. It's a long duration event with no amplification. Unsettled conditions overhead for quite a long time with little to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not really a cave, it has its max precip in southern Virginia while the GFS has it in Southeastern PA. They miss us in different ways. Which makes you wonder if a meeting in the middle is the outcome. Interesting differences in the European models vs NA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Which makes you wonder if a meeting in the middle is the outcome. Interesting differences in the European models vs NA. There is no real consolidated piece of energy in the broad trough. The precip maxes the models are spitting out in random places each run seem to align with the inverted trough. We do so well with Norluns in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 There is no real consolidated piece of energy in the broad trough. The precip maxes the models are spitting out in random places each run seem to align with the inverted trough. We do so well with Norluns in these parts. Yeah, we love them out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not really a cave, it has its max precip in southern Virginia while the GFS has it in Southeastern PA. They miss us in different ways. split the difference . Problem is each run lately we are moving more and more away from any real organized synoptic scale development and towards a weird meso scale event from a norlun type feature and vorts passing through the trough. Similar to that 2009 thing that was mentioned a few times. Good luck trying to pin that crap down. Would be like predicting where pop up thunderstorms will develop 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 SREFS marginally improved with the 1/4" precip regionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 split the difference . Problem is each run lately we are moving more and more away from any real organized synoptic scale development and towards a weird meso scale event from a norlun type feature and vorts passing through the trough. Similar to that 2009 thing that was mentioned a few times. Good luck trying to pin that crap down. Would be like predicting where pop up thunderstorms will develop 3 days out. Same exact thoughts. Barring a miracle that something organized comes together, we're just seeing meaningless oscillations in the grand scheme. I do like the euro slp track. I should say "tracks" because it's showing 2 little pieces rolling through. Where the most precip falls is anyone's guess and will probably wobble around guidance until the event is unfolding. Your area has the best chance at accum snow regardless of qpf totals. Temps are a glaring issue in my hood unless I get lucky with during the 6-12z tues timeframe. At this point if I measure more than an inch it will be a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not sure how useful they are at this range but the euro ens look half decent in general. Supportive of an "event" and not a total bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not sure how useful they are at this range but the euro ens look half decent in general. Supportive of an "event" and not a total bust. Jma agrres. Little more falls after this http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 split the difference . Problem is each run lately we are moving more and more away from any real organized synoptic scale development and towards a weird meso scale event from a norlun type feature and vorts passing through the trough. Similar to that 2009 thing that was mentioned a few times. Good luck trying to pin that crap down. Would be like predicting where pop up thunderstorms will develop 3 days out. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not sure how useful they are at this range but the euro ens look half decent in general. Supportive of an "event" and not a total bust. Like a 1-2/2-4 type "event"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not sure how useful they are at this range but the euro ens look half decent I'm general. Supportive of an "event" and not a total bust. Kinda of a shame about the involvement with the first low. A bit of a strange evolution with the first low as well. Just seems to devolpe out of nowhere and rapidly intensify. If it was completely off the playing field we probably would be looking at a widespread really nice event. I'm sure there still would've have been the usual caveats because we aren't dealing with the best temperature situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Like a 1-2/2-4 type "event"? Pretty much. Some outliers that look really nice of course but the large majority give us 2"+. I'm hoping to get at least 1". I might owe mitch 10 large though. BWI isn't going to be a cold spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18z NAM 54hr, surface low pops over C-VA/NC border 1004. Meanwhile heavy snow Long Island to Boston with the Hurrisnowcane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 HR-57...slides right off the outer banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 NAM is nearly a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 NAM asks what event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 HR-57...slides right off the outer banks It looks a lot like the euro compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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