Windman18 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 So the euro is south, gfs is north, and the nam splits the difference. Interested to see what the cmc does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 NYC and most of CT get rocked too. Only people left out is us. Now this is the typical BUST scenario! #Swingandamiss #CLOSEbutnocigar #thisisnothorseshoes What will be more fun is if the first system rocks NC/GA and teh second gets the NE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Biggest thing to me are rates. We can only overcome borderline e temps w rates. If it's light precip get ready to wake up to white mulch. ...like we did Friday morning. Difficult to get excited about after the HECS we just went through 2 short weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 06z GFS was a lot better for the DC area = the model has no clue to what will actually happen. None of them do really. Gonna be a tough forecast and they'll keep swinging back and forth I imagine until tomorrow or Sunday or until we see where the TROF will actually set up. I'll get excited if and when it is snowing Monday night - and sticking. Luckily my area runs a degree or two cooler than DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 FWIW the 06z navgem looks very similar to the 12z nam with the low forming in S VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z CMC forms the low in SE VA. Looks pretty good qpf wise out to 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GFS looks awful today. The Low jumps several times. It's an outlier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 ...like we did Friday morning. Difficult to get excited about after the HECS we just went through 2 short weeks ago. Yep, especially when any heavier precip is going to be in a very narrow band along the torugh to the west wherever it sets up. Botht he GFS and GGEM today keep it north of us so PA gets pretty good precip but we get light precip with temps staying above freezing. The nam lowers the temp partly because of the death band it has over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I have fundamental issues with banking on snow happening as shown by the snowier models. But it is well shown by a number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I have fundamental issues with banking on snow happening as shown by the snowier models. But it is well shown by a number. I think models tend to overdo the precip with those type troughs mroe often than not. Plus the scale is so small, it's tough to get it over your back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I think models tend to overdo the precip with those type troughs mroe often than not. Plus the scale is so small, it's tough to get it over your back yard. Yes and it sort of looked like the GFS was doing that precip thing again with the band. If you look at the model runs there are blotchy high precip spots. I wouldn't totally doubt an enhanced area somewhere but I sure wouldn't bank on it doing me much good until it's ripping. Bearish def the way to play for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Ukie precip at 72. 850's are -5 but surface above freezing, exact unknown http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=072&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Ukie precip at 72. 850's are -5 but surface above freezing, exact unknown http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=072&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo 96 hrs 500mb http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GFS looks awful today. The Low jumps several times. It's an outlier now. I assume you are talking about the developing low? That has been bothering me as well. Have noticed over the last day or so that the way the models have been developing that low and its progression seemed somewhat off and had attributed it to the fact we were dealing with a very complicated situation with the interaction with the off shore low. But today's GFS wonky handling of the low as it progressed out to sea has made me question that maybe we are missing something. I have also noticed over the last couple days, and can't put my finger on exactly what, but the way the trough evolves as it pulls north seems a little off and again had attributed that to the complexities involved. But seeing the GFS try to pop a low back south of Cape Cod @ 84 after the low had already cleared the area got my mind thinking outside the box. This is a total wag on my part so take it for what it's worth. Could we possibly be talking about some energy revolving around the PV a day or so after we see the coastal development that the models are keying on and trying to resolve into the equation? In my mind it would explain a lot. Have looked at 500's but there is so much energy flying around it is hard to make heads or tails of anything. Again just a total wag that is probably way off base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Ukie precip at 72. 850's are -5 but surface above freezing, exact unknown http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=072&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Meh to ok I guess... e11 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Meh to ok I guess gefs_snow_ens_washdc_17.png Wrong image?EDIT: Never mind, see it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Meh to ok I guess gefs_snow_ens_washdc_18.png Meh? Are you crazy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Meh? Are you crazy? Meh because its mainly 1-2" for DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Meh because its mainly 1-2" Seems pretty meh to me, 6 members give DC 2 inches or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Was this ensemble run better than the 06z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Seems pretty meh to me, 6 members give DC 2 inches or more.I saw a much diff image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I saw a much diff image. He originally posted an ensemble run from the blizzard, I saw it as well. Got me excited though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The only real hope of getting a decent snowfall is for the low to develop quicker to our south and east. That would help pull some slightly cooler air down and get us into steady precip and dynamic cooling. The NAM hints at that. With no real cold air in place everything must tick just right for moderate accumulations. Narrow banding is a bear to forecast...may have a better picture 12-24hrs out with the high res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Was this ensemble run better than the 06z? Don't think so. I see nothing good from North American models. I guess we can hang on the European models. Hope the euro doesn't go in the ditch in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I saw a much diff image. I accidentally posted an image from the blizzard and then corrected it... my fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 UKMET stood it's ground for the most part, interesting to see if the euro caves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Hopefully the EURO holds the line for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 UKMET stood it's ground for the most part, interesting to see if the euro caves. Caves to what? The GFS? EURO has been okay for us so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Caves to what? The GFS? EURO has been okay for us so far Yeah it doesn't happen often. Edit: 1008mb contour on 12z euro is well west of the GFS, not going to cave much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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