yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z NAM at 60 has a 1002 MSLP in S VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z NAM has the DelMarva and NJ and points north in the snow shield of the ocean low, which does not seem to want to give up. Even though the models are persistent in at some point forcing it well offshore and not affecting us, you have to admire its persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z NAM at 60 has a 1002 MSLP in S VA At 69 it's pretty nice. DC area bullseye. Surface still at an issue but at least it's overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Question for a met or expert. The ocean low now has its heaviest bands north of the center of circulation as opposed to the east or NE of the center as it was yesterday. Is there any significance to this? Is it indicating a change of direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 NAM is pretty decent, although thermals could use a little massaging. But it's at night, so that'll help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z NAM has the DelMarva and NJ and points north in the snow shield of the ocean low, which does not seem to want to give up. Even though the models are persistent in at some point forcing it well offshore and not affecting us, you have to admire its persistence. The disco that cape posted is worth a read. Probably not much affect on our area, but could result in more of a direct impact for the coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Usual spots north of the cities would do very well if this verified. I think even the cities could score 1-3 in the overnight period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 At 69 it's pretty nice. DC area bullseye. Surface still at an issue but at least it's overnight. At 75, it's a wee bit closer to the coast than at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 NAM is pretty decent, although thermals could use a little massaging. But it's at night, so that'll help Biggest thing to me are rates. We can only overcome borderline e temps w rates. If it's light precip get ready to wake up to white mulch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The disco that cape posted is worth a read. Probably not much affect on our area, but could result in more of a direct impact for the coastal areas. Yeah, I read it. They seem to be waiting for a westward movement of some type (reading between the lines). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Excellent disco from Kocin this morning -- http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Biggest thing to me are rates. We can only overcome borderline e temps w rates. If it's light precip get ready to wake up to white mulch. Yeah absolutely. Sim Radar at 66 has 30-35 dbz around DC. Gotta check the lunar cycle to see if the moon angle will be a factor though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Fall line special. Get ready for mapgirl deck pics and sparky broom pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 If the ocean storm were to move closer to the coast, is there any possibility that it could interact with the secondary that is supposed to affect us on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 850's are around -4 & 925's are around -1 or -1.5. Looks like surface is 32 in favored locations and 33-34 in others. Verbatim, and without looking at skewts, that should be snow with 8:1 ratios for most areas. I'll defer to those in downtown DC for their area however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 850's are around -4 & 925's are around -1 or -1.5. Looks like surface is 32 in favored locations and 33-34 in others. Verbatim, and without looking at skewts, that should be snow with 8:1 ratios for most areas. I'll defer to those in downtown DC for their area however. It's prob not great for downtown DC w/out rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 IWM snowmaps look very nice for the PA/MD border down to around Westminster with 6+ inches and bring accumulating snow ~1-2 inches to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Excellent disco from Kocin this morning -- http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd This is no doubt one of the more difficult evolutions we've dealt with. The narrow precip max is a hair puller. We're starting to finally see some continuity across the ops but still have little clarity if this thing will work out. I did like the euro and Para euro temp profile and slp placement. Even though the good precip misses it was awful close. Ensembles are half decent still. Maybe we'll know something by Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 TT gives bwi 6....don't believe that, but who knows. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016020612&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Fall line special. Get ready for mapgirl deck pics and sparky broom pics. From the passing low, or the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 TT gives bwi 6....don't believe that, but who knows. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016020612&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=162 Sorta looks like an inverted trough when you flip through simulated radar although I really have no idea what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Sorta looks like an inverted trough when you flip through simulated radar although I really have no idea what I'm talking about. Inverted trough. Correct. Produces a narrow band of locally moderate-heavy precip. Big uncertainty is the exact placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Inverted trough. Correct. Produces a narrow band of locally moderate-heavy precip. Big uncertainty is the exact placement. This inverted trough flips north south northeast to southwest often it will jump all around dynamic shortrange meso scale models are the way to go ....it is like tracking a lake effect snow band and these inverted trough snow axis can range from 25-175 mile wide bands it is real trouble for forecasting but fun for those that score and bridge jump time for those who dont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Better look on the 12Z GFS. Less interaction between the atlantic low and the low developing in Va and we are seeing a positive response with a slightly deeper and more westerly low development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Better look on the 12Z GFS. Less interaction between the atlantic low and the low developing in Va and we are seeing a positive response with a slightly deeper and more westerly low development. Closed surface contour over the tidewater. Move that 50 miles south and we'd do ok. Heck we could do ok as is. Temps take some wind out of the sails but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Closed surface contour over the tidewater. Move that 50 miles south and we'd do ok. Heck we could do ok as is. Temps take some wind out of the sails but it is what it is. This might be a fail when it is all done but just following all the intricacies with this system has been enjoyable as he!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 ScreenShot005.jpg Rockin For Allentown, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Might be noise but the 500's look to have slightly improved. Just slight adjustments here and there with the most notably being a sharper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 For Allentown, PA NYC and most of CT get rocked too. Only people left out is us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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