mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Look how close the gem comes with the se coast storm https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif Panel before it 48 hrs https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/531_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Look how close the gem comes with the se coast storm https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif Can we now root for the second storm to slow down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Can we now root for the second storm to slow down?why would you want the second storm to slow down. U want it to merge with the first coastal. For that to happen you need the first storm to track a little more west like the nam 4K depicts. This can definitely happen and if that happens, we can have a monster storm meaning 1-2 feet from DC to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Ukie 72 hrs precip http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=060&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=030 72 & 96 hr 500mb http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=030&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Uk looks more interesting them gfs ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 euro is pretty far south...could be good for temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Eurp looks way better. than the GFS high is wedged way further south and the low is forming way further south @72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Eurp looks way better. than the GFS high is wedged way further south and the low is forming way further south @72hrs we're in a good spot on Euro...northern edge...jackpot is down southwest of CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 we're in a good spot on Euro...northern edge...jackpot is down southwest of CHO How close to the northern edge, room to breath? ETA: Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 we're in a good spot on Euro...northern edge...jackpot is down southwest of CHOYep, back to where it was a few days ago if I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 How close to the northern edge, room to breath? I just posted the map. I like our location. Need a northern shift, but I'd rather be on the north edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nowhere close to the GGEM, GFS or NAM, looks more like the 12z ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I just posted the map. I like our location. Need a northern shift, but I'd rather be on the north edgeIt'll come north in the last 72 hours. It always does when we're bullseyed at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 06z GFS has a nice track of the surface low with better qpf across the cities and into Nova. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 06z GFS has a nice track of the surface low with better qpf across the cities and into Nova.maybe getting back to the old solutions today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 maybe getting back to the old solutions today? Probable fluctuations over the next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 6z NAM and 6z GFS both have the low popping to our SE. Both imply a moderate snow event for central/eastern MD, S PA and DE. Maybe 2-4/3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looking at the 00Z Euro op and comparing to the previous run I found to be somewhat encouraging. Just a 50 mile shift of the Atlantic low east as it progresses off of the VA/MD did wonders to the developing coastal low and suggests that maybe we are riding the knifes edge and do not need the degree of separation that I had originally thought. With just that 50 mile shift the influence of that Atlantic low on the developing low was evident with the pressure fields on the models as well as with the corresponding response by the coastal low. The response we saw was a more westerly initial development as well as a track that more so ran up the coast vs a more seaward track. We also had a somewhat quicker deepening of the low as well. Now maybe this is just wish casting on my part and all we are seeing is noise but I would be curious as to what another 50 mile shift would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Sterling's first guess maps Min: 0 Most Likely: 1-2 Max: 2-4 (4 over I-81 and west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 06z GFS keeps multiple H5 vort lobes swinging through the Middle Atlantic through 15z Tuesday...likely reason for the extended period of precip in the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Sterling's first guess maps Min: 0 Most Likely: 1-2 Max: 2-4 (4 over I-81 and west) They are only until 7 am Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Gonna be tough for the cities to accumulate, EURO and GFS never get the cities below freezing for a substantial time in this event. Unless we get bullseyed with rates this is trace-2 inches on grassy surfaces in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Interesting take from Mount Holly this morning regarding the "lead" low: SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TOOCCUR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTFALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW REACH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULFSTREAM. THE EXACT TRACK THE LOW TAKES AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEEPENSWILL DETERMINE THE IMPACTS TO OUR AREA, IF ANY, LATE SUNDAY INTOEARLY MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODELDISAGREEMENT THAT HAS MADE IT CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE WHAT THEOUTCOME WILL BE. ONE GENERAL CAMP OF MODELS HAS THE LOW BOMBING OUTAND TRACKING CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE OTHER CAMP IS MOREPROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, RESULTING IN ATRACK THAT IS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES,JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TOSPARE OUR AREA FROM DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM (E.G., HEAVY SNOWAND STRONG WINDS). WITH THAT SAID, THIS STORM STILL BARES WATCHING.MANY OF THE MODELS FOR DAYS LEADING UP TO THE PAST TWO STORMS (THELATE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE ONE YESTERDAY) HAD A DISTINCTEASTWARD BIAS IN THE TRACK. BOTH OF THESE STORMS WOUND UP TAKINGVERY SIMILAR TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOLLOWED THE STRONGSST GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OF THEANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF STREAM CURRENT. ACCORDINGLY, WE FAVOR THESEWESTERN SOLUTIONS AND HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RA/SN IN DEAND NJ. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STILL TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE SNOWFALLAMOUNTS ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 They are only until 7 am Tuesday Correct. Didn't mention that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Mean snowfall of the GFS ensembles is 2.5" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Pretty interesting differences between the euro and gfs for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 no one cares to comment on the SREF? Yoda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 no one cares to comment on the SREF? Yoda? He has to sleep sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 He has to sleep sometime. Not when the SREF comes out... those are his Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.