stormtracker Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 yeah it's drier. good try yoder. He's been pretty bad today. The smilies after each post irk me more than usual lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Drier is gooder in this particular situation I'm like an easy trick. I've abandoned this one for a new lover (PD3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Gfs is actually is a fail because it went back to tracking the low to our north. It was better in some other ways but reverted to where it was 36 hours ago. So many ways to fail with this one. At least we have the presidents day hecs to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm like an easy trick. I've abandoned this one for a new lover (PD3) well that's like dumping the town slut for a supermodel. #upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm like an easy trick. I've abandoned this one for a new lover (PD3) You have to share PD3 with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Snowfall maps stop at 240 hours on TT, but go to the 240 hour map and check out thw totals to our west. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016020518&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 well that's like dumping the town slut for a supermodel. #upgrade Ha! Yeah, one you have to pay for, the other...wait a minute, you still have to pay and have less of a chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Wouldn't weaker help in scooting along quicker? I dunno really. I'm not sold the first low is a giant player in the second low as others are. I think the long wave trough orientation is more important. I guess the first low does impact the broadness of the main trough to some degree? They're connected but not sure there's a silver bullet with the first low. Need the trough to look better when it's passing our hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 When I measure 2" on Tuesday without needing to shovel anything you quitters are going to look silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 When I measure 2" on Tuesday without needing to shovel anything you quitters are going to look silly. And you'll still pass "Go", while collecting $10K from Mitch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 I dunno really. I'm not sold the first low is a giant player in the second low as others are. I think the long wave trough orientation is more important. I guess the first low does impact the broadness of the main trough to some degree? They're connected but not sure there's a silver bullet with the first low. Need the trough to look better when it's passing our hood.From what I've seen (and I could be wrong), the proximity of the southern low assists in elongation the front side of the Midwest trough. Which inhibits organized precip chances. The tug on the isobars seems apparent on the latest couple cycles. Not sure how we avoid it at this point. I just want to get norlun'd for hours and not care someone 3 miles away gets melty -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Maybe early Feb. 2009 would be something similar. That was the system that produced localized 8-10 amounts in southeastern PA in Lancaster county while areas only 10 miles away got literally nothing. What a fun night that was local met said flurries ending in an hour then it snowed 1-2" from 7PM to 2AM we got 7.3" here in Media and even a couple of lightning strikes!! Lancaster PA got 6" band of snow went from Lancaster PA to the Coast... the band north to south was like 35 miles wide. Philly International got 10" and Pitman NJ South Central picked up 14" the forecast was for snow ending LOL Bensalem PA Bucks County Had partly cloudy skies with a flurry and moon shine and that is 32 miles to my north northeast here in Media what an interesting night that was. next morning was quite cold and Windy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 You have to share PD3 with me. I just wanna see Ron Paul. This was likely never uttered in the history of mankind until today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 From what I've seen (and I could be wrong), the proximity of the southern low assists in elongation the front side of the Midwest trough. Which inhibits organized precip chances. The tug on the isobars seems apparent on the latest couple cycles. Not sure how we avoid it at this point. I just want to get norlun'd for hours and not care someone 3 miles away gets melty -SN. Yeah that makes sense. I haven't really followed super close run to run. It does sort of create a 'weakness' for the base of the main/somewhat disjointed trough to move toward rather than having it wrap up or something if you had more upstream ridging. It's always seemed a bit back-weighted with the best vorticity/winds though and has generally ended up pretty broad even in the good runs. A closed 500 mb low passing over Chicago isn't our best look. It's looked more like a severe weather setup if it was not winter than a winter storm setup to me most of the time. The bulk of the goods in the 500mb trough are pretty flat at the base and mostly focused there and behind. You're running out of land and the timing is off but the look on the Euro around 72 is a GA to Carolina high risk in a Nina in April at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Two things I have learned about inverted troughs in Feb 4th 2009: 1: I liken trying to find what will happen with an inverted trough compared to finding a needle in a haystack. 2: I liken figuring out what an inverted trough will do compared to a lake effect snow band. It's here..... No wait it's over here...no now it's here. In other words whoever gets 6"+ from the trough is not much different than hitting a sizeable lottery win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nam is way south with the se trough at 36 hrs. It may even show snow in se GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nam is way south with the se trough at 36 hrs. It may even show snow in se GA.I thought I noticed a slight nw jog at 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I just wanna see Ron Paul. This was likely never uttered in the history of mankind until today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nam is way south with the se trough at 36 hrs. It may even show snow in se GA. Precip a few miles north, but basically run to run noise since 18z. I was hoping it would be way east or way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looks like it starts to move east at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The 4k NAM is noticeably farther east than the 12K NAM at hr 36 and doesn't look like a capture yet. Just grasping for straws here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Slut talk will get you nowhere. This is serious biz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Savannah gets 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Anyone else seeing the dual lows that the NAM has on this run starting at hr 45? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Anyone else seeing the dual lows that the NAM has on this run starting at hr 45? New triple point low forming due to occlusion I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 tropical tidbits spitting out 9" snow in coastal ga/sc lulz Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I've never hated a low pressure system as much as I hate that one off the Atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Definitely looks like more separation in the two at 54. I don't know how much we need tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 What a waste of a beautifully wound up storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 tropical tidbits spitting out 9" snow in coastal ga/sc lulz Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk superninoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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