Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Went even further N with slp than 12z. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Went even further N with slp than 12z. Bleh. Yeah the surface doesn't cool down til the precip shuts off. Not a great look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Miller B's suck for us, always. Maybe a period of light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Too many factors have to tick just right for this to work. I don't remember seeing a lot of systems spin up like this behind a large storm system like the one that's progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Miller B's suck for us, always. Maybe a period of light snow. Too many factors have to tick just right for this to work. I don't remember seeing a lot of systems spin up like this behind a large storm system like the one that's progged. can we stick a fork in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Let me state it this way....medium range NWP skill is now comparable in the NH and SH. In the SH, we have so few raobs and aircraft-based data yet can produce skillful medium range forecasts. Our current global observing system for the atmosphere is robust and redundant. I'm talking mostly about synoptic-scale type stuff here. When you start getting into mesoscale and smaller, of course you need much higher fidelity in space (horizontal and vertical) and time; and need things like radars, etc. We have a winner. I've learned something today. I always like when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I think it's a little early to be killing this. Gotta give it to Sunday. These runs 3+ days out are good for nothing but practice imho since jackpotting now isn't very enviable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 can we stick a fork in it? Probably. We'd do just as well hoping for a miracle with that first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I think it's a little early to be killing this. Gotta give it to Sunday. These runs 3+ days out are good for nothing but practice imho since jackpotting now isn't very enviable. I think so too. I thought 18z would have produced a better outcome based on h5 but it didn't. We need to give it more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm familiar with March 2013 fiasco of course...but you've mentioned that December 2013 date before. I cannot recall that one exactly...but have a vague memory that there was some hope of a "second wave" along a front (a day or so after we got some ice/rain), which never materialized really. Is that the one? At least in this case, we're seeing the fail earlier well before it happens, whereas for March 2013 it hit us right at game time essentially! 12/10/13, we were under a WSW for 4-7". Modeling was pretty solid and the track was a good one. BL and sfc temps were an issue in the city and immediate suburbs and everyone kind of ignored it. The system never became dynamic enough down here to overcome it. We ended up with -SN at 33 that never really got going. I got 0.5". Westminster/Winchester got nailed of course because they got under a really good band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Probably. We'd do just as well hoping for a miracle with that first system. That probably wont work either, but its really hard to see that low getting out of the way in time for the following wave to get in a good spot and deepen(which it may do, but likely too late). I cant recall an evolution quite like this, or at least one that worked out for our area. We generally don't do well with complicated/convoluted setups, and especially when its a miller B type deal, which are always high risk for failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 I think it's a little early to be killing this. Gotta give it to Sunday. These runs 3+ days out are good for nothing but practice imho since jackpotting now isn't very enviable. If you read between the lines "killing it" means it's dead until the next model run that brings it back with the 0z suite. We really don't have any idea how this is going to break in the end. Other than writing off a well developed synoptic storm I don't see how a definitive call right now makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 That probably wont work either, but its really hard to see that low getting out of the way in time for the following wave to get in a good spot and deepen(which it may do, but likely too late). I cant recall an evolution quite like this, or at least one that worked out for our area. We generally don't do well with complicated/convoluted setups, and especially when its a miller B type deal, which are always high risk for failure. Maybe early Feb. 2009 would be something similar. That was the system that produced localized 8-10 amounts in southeastern PA in Lancaster county while areas only 10 miles away got literally nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I think it's a little early to be killing this. Gotta give it to Sunday. These runs 3+ days out are good for nothing but practice imho since jackpotting now isn't very enviable. I don't know. Some pretty bad trends today. After today's 12 z runs, I think it may be time to call in this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 If you read between the lines "killing it" means it's dead until the next model run that brings it back with the 0z suite. We really don't have any idea how this is going to break in the end. Other than writing off a well developed synoptic storm I don't see how a definitive call right now makes sense. I think we need a weenie handbook with detailed instructions. Otherwise, innocent lives may be lost. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12/10/13, we were under a WSW for 4-7". Modeling was pretty solid and the track was a good one. BL and sfc temps were an issue in the city and immediate suburbs and everyone kind of ignored it. The system never became dynamic enough down here to overcome it. We ended up with -SN at 33 that never really got going. I got 0.5". Westminster/Winchester got nailed of course because they got under a really good band. Yeah that was the first big snow at the house, I think I picked up 7-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I think so too. I thought 18z would have produced a better outcome based on h5 but it didn't. We need to give it more time. I think expectations should have been low from the start. Its a miller B. Threading the needle 100+ hours out, its really just entertainment. Yesterday's runs looked nice but when you see a very small strip of precip with no margin or error, not to mention temp issues, you just know it likely won't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Too many factors have to tick just right for this to work. I don't remember seeing a lot of systems spin up like this behind a large storm system like the one that's progged.It's not common but I think it's more common in El Niño than other winters. The first sys is rather intense tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 21z SREFs are even further west with the first low 100-200 miles ESE of HSE at 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 21z SREFs are even further west with the first low 100-200 miles ESE of HSE at 51 Heh...so we might actually get more rain/white rain with marginal temperatures from that one than the Miller B if this keeps up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 21z SREFs are even further west with the first low 100-200 miles ESE of HSE at 51 Look at the precip panel from 66 on the 15z and the 60 on the 21z......24 hour total. Or am I looking at the wrong thing again ... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I know it has been a bad day of model runs when I have to pull up the RGEM and the NAM and search them at range hoping to find something that would suggest the long range models are missing something. And no I didn't find anything. Pretty good agreement actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 15z on top, 21z lower. Looks like a big shift east to me. In fact it looks wacky. Are these correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 yeah it's drier. good try yoder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yeah that was the first big snow at the house, I think I picked up 7-8" 12/8/13 was 6-9" Baltimore-north, so maybe that's the one you're thinking of. Then there was the one 2 days later, but if I remember correctly it wasn't that good even up there, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Drier is gooder in this particular situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Drier is gooder in this particular situation Hell yeah, and that's a good shift east for one run. Hopefully it's the start of getting that low moving on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Huh, must have been looking at something else then, my fault. Failed me, the Force did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Hell yeah, and that's a good shift east for one run. Hopefully it's the start of getting that low moving on. Mean low actually looks pretty similar timing and track wise. It's just drier around here. Think it's a little weaker mainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Mean low actually looks pretty similar timing and track wise. It's just drier around here. Think it's a little weaker mainly. Wouldn't weaker help in scooting along quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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