yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAM 18z further west with the first wave again. Today's storm trended west up to the last second, this next one may do the same thing. You can already tell through 30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Taking a look at the members there are quite a few showing a long drawn out evolution. Maybe what we lack in totals will be made up for with watching 24+ hours of snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Euro ens are just a splattering of variations of the op. Narrow qpf max. Warn level event seeming very unlikely except for a localized area. Most are supportive of a 2-4/3-6 type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Taking a look at the members there are quite a few showing a long drawn out evolution. Maybe what we lack in totals will be made up for with watching 24+ hours of snow falling. which can be a lot of fun if its cold enough for it to stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Day 10 storm is a beaut It always is Mitch. It always is. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAM is going to make a run for it Looks like its being captured early on at 45... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Most are supportive of a 2-4/3-6 type of event. Agreed. Just gotta hope a good bit of that falls overnight Monday and not high noon Tuesday. The ironic thing is I've always thought this was a 2-4" kind of deal with 3-6" max but I got sucked right in like the best of them after the euro yesterday afternoon. lol. Digital snow may as well be crack to a snow weenie. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It always is Mitch. It always is. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The year of the Day 10 storm... EXCEPT ONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Ok based on the gfs and eps runs we can put to bet the idea of the stj storm running the coast and crushing us. Nothing does that. Not a single run in the lot of 70+. Only 3/4 even get close at all and they get decent previp as far west as the eastern shore to southern nj kinda like today but no further and they are the most amped. However I noticed some of the closer runs also lead to a weird hybrid type miller b bomb. A few 975-985 lows sitting just east of ocean city. However that closer look from the stj is also leading to the 1/3 of runs that are a total miss with nothing. So it's playing with Fire there. Just pointing it out. Most of the weaker stj runs lead to at least something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAM is going to make a run for it Looks like its being captured early on at 45... Snow for extreme NE Florida this run at 42 hrs, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Agreed. Just gotta hope a good bit of that falls overnight Monday and not high noon Tuesday. The ironic thing is I've always thought this was a 2-4" kind of deal with 3-6" max but I got sucked right in like the best of them after the euro yesterday afternoon. lol. Digital snow may as well be crack to a snow weenie. lol Yeah, no kidding! Of course, the thinking was that 2-4" or so would fall in, oh, something much less than a 24 hour period! But yeah, we got sucked in at 12Z yesterday for something potentially a fair bit better...quite the turnaround today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The year of the Day 10 storm... EXCEPT ONEThat one is the setup we typically score from though so I think it has some validity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Because words don't do the 06z para GFS justice, here's a total precip image (subtract a bit on the east coast). This is a dream scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Precip brushing the Carolina coastline at 57 from the first coastal low that is deepening as it goes up the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 So doesn't that lend some credibility to the "on shore" comment? It may not be much, but surely we have somewhat better sampling capabilities with systems over the US vs. over the Pacific Ocean Let me state it this way....medium range NWP skill is now comparable in the NH and SH. In the SH, we have so few raobs and aircraft-based data yet can produce skillful medium range forecasts. Our current global observing system for the atmosphere is robust and redundant. I'm talking mostly about synoptic-scale type stuff here. When you start getting into mesoscale and smaller, of course you need much higher fidelity in space (horizontal and vertical) and time; and need things like radars, etc. "on shore" also equates to closer in time. So there is less error growth. Same could be said wait until it "clears the rockies". Even less error growth. Personally, I don't think I've seen many cases where "on shore" led to a groundbreaking new solution. Just typical higher accuracy due to less lead time. We have a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Snow for extreme NE Florida this run at 42 hrs, lol. I would somehow really doubt that, despite the 850 temps being below zero, just considering what the BL would be there (and even if so, maybe some very wet flakes if that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Precip brushing the Carolina coastline at 57 from the first coastal low that is deepening as it goes up the EC At 60 its actually further east slightly with the precip shield than 12z was. I don't think it matters. That first storm is toast for almost all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 More spacing between systems this run on the NAM. Could allow for more development for storm 2 though midwest trof doesn't appear to be digging quite as much. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Precip brushing the Carolina coastline at 57 from the first coastal low that is deepening as it goes up the EC Energy too concentrated in bowling ball too far southeast this run. I still think the full capture is very possible. This looks the most similar to 1/25/2000 out of any pattern I've seen since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sim radar shows decent echoes over us at 78 & 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sim radar shows decent echoes over us at 78 & 84 Yeah but 2m freezing line is well north of metro area. But hey it's the 84 hour NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 There's a reason for the EPS to give NE so much. They have the southern storm slamming them just like the NAM does this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yeah but 2m freezing line is well north of metro area. But hey it's the 84 hour NAM.I said decent returns, but not having any other map available, since sim radar comes out first, I didn't say they were snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I said decent returns, but not having any other map available, since sim radar comes out first, I didn't say they were snow. Haha yeah. Since 78-84 is after dark I'd think maybe we could accumulate at 33-34 with some decent rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 There's a reason for the EPS to give NE so much. They have the southern storm slamming them just like the NAM does this run. Hopefully it eventually gets up slams us. Thats a bit of a stretch for south western areas, but if it trends west as much as this past storm did, even they will do good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Hopefully it eventually gets up slams us. Thats a bit of a stretch for south western areas, but if it trends west as much as this past storm did, even they will do good. Do you think this is within the realm of possibility now that we are within 84 hours? How far west was the anafront progged to be at 84 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Haha yeah. Since 78-84 is after dark I'd think maybe we could accumulate at 33-34 with some decent rates. I accumulated at 36 during SP (Saint Patrick's) 1 as the sun went down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It looks like we would get a decent h5 pass as well... onto the happy hr 18z GFS... hope its a bit more consolidated at h5 and not so strung out like it was at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Do you think this is within the realm of possibility now that we are within 84 hours? How far west was the anafront progged to be at 84 hours? Further offshore than this thing is now. Of course, models could be right and it could trend back offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 GFS ticking east with the southern wave. Hopefully it helps still not much space to work with either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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