mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I guess I'll take the lemonade approach with the run. I don't mind being in the northern edge of the precip max considering what the gfs did earlier. This is a pretty dirty event with weird details. I still don't know what to think. Apparently, as a group, neither do the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 day 7 has potential fwiw http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It was cold. Wasn't so heavy. maybe depended on your location...I was in DC and it ripped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I guess I'll take the lemonade approach with the run. I don't mind being in the northern edge of the precip max considering what the gfs did earlier. This is a pretty dirty event with weird details. I still don't know what to think. I'm taking a 3/6/13, 12/10/13 approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 What's the supposed start - end time for this thing on this euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Exponential/nonlinear error growth within a chaotic system. Very small changes to the initial state can yield drastic changes even at the large scale at range.... So doesn't that lend some credibility to the "on shore" comment? It may not be much, but surely we have somewhat better sampling capabilities with systems over the US vs. over the Pacific Ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 What's the supposed start - end time for this thing on this euro run? If you believe the euro it's monday shortly after sunset through midnight tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm taking a 3/6/13, 12/10/13 approach I'm familiar with March 2013 fiasco of course...but you've mentioned that December 2013 date before. I cannot recall that one exactly...but have a vague memory that there was some hope of a "second wave" along a front (a day or so after we got some ice/rain), which never materialized really. Is that the one? At least in this case, we're seeing the fail earlier well before it happens, whereas for March 2013 it hit us right at game time essentially! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 So doesn't that lend some credibility to the "on shore" comment? It may not be much, but surely we have somewhat better sampling capabilities with systems over the US vs. over the Pacific Ocean "on shore" also equates to closer in time. So there is less error growth. Same could be said wait until it "clears the rockies". Even less error growth. Personally, I don't think I've seen many cases where "on shore" led to a groundbreaking new solution. Just typical higher accuracy due to less lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 one would think it has to move east nope, its kinda an inverted trough type deal, precip just sits there and trains...but honestly that might be our best chance if the models are correct in bombing out that coastal system to our east. Someone could score a surprise from that. But good luck figuring out exactly where such a feature would set up more then 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 EURO looks pretty good @ 216 hours. BIG HP straddling the center of the CONUS. Big ULL in SE Canada. Could be a really good overrunning setup, especially with the strong S/W out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 "on shore" also equates to closer in time. So there is less error growth. Same could be said wait until it "clears the rockies". Even less error growth. Personally, I don't think I've seen many cases where "on shore" led to a groundbreaking new solution. Just typical higher accuracy due to less lead time. Probably very true Bob, but this time we are all talking about small changes being very big in the final outcome. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm familiar with March 2013 fiasco of course...but you've mentioned that December 2013 date before. I cannot recall that one exactly...but have a vague memory that there was some hope of a "second wave" along a front (a day or so after we got some ice/rain), which never materialized really. Is that the one? At least in this case, we're seeing the fail earlier well before it happens, whereas for March 2013 it hit us right at game time essentially! https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/09/snow-likely-tuesday-morning-could-snarl-morning-rush-hour-traffic/ It was noted for its potentially very high rush hour impact, which didn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 EURO looks pretty good @ 216 hours. BIG HP straddling the center of the CONUS. Big ULL in SE Canada. Could be a really good overrunning setup, especially with the strong S/W out west Well, though this is more the "medium range" topic and not the event early next week...yes, that time range has been targeted by several in here as being potentially a better set-up and scenario for us than the Miller-B event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I guess I'll take the lemonade approach with the run. I don't mind being in the northern edge of the precip max considering what the gfs did earlier. This is a pretty dirty event with weird details. I still don't know what to think. I find myself totally agreeing with your all of your posts lately. The meso scale features are going to move around, but the euro keeps hope alive that someone can score a nice event. Probably moving away from the likelihood of a forum wide significant event though. Too much noise to really get an organized system going. that could change but were trending the wrong way here. With the GGEM and GFS going a bit north seeing something south along with the UK was nice. Keeps hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I guess I'll take the lemonade approach with the run. I don't mind being in the northern edge of the precip max considering what the gfs did earlier. This is a pretty dirty event with weird details. I still don't know what to think. I think the lemonade approach is a good one. Someone could end up with a decent event but pinpointing where will be tough. I think conservative is the way to ride it for a bit. P;us having the low squirt east so fast and having to rel on the trough that extends from the new low back to the remains of the old one is kind of scary. i'll be above freezing so I have no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I imagine DT might be woofing later today....especially since it would be a birthday storm for him RUT ROH RAGGY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Well, though this is more the "medium range" topic and not the event early next week...yes, that time range has been targeted by several in here as being potentially a better set-up and scenario for us than the Miller-B event. Well, that 10 day map is so much better than the two systems we're watching. Looks plenty cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The 00z Para EURO also has a massive 50/50 and a storm in central US @ 240....Massive HP sprawling the northern tier of the country on both the 12z EURO and 00z EURO PAR I know, it is far out there, but I'm always keeping one eye out in the distance. Really, really good setup IF the 50/50 is legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Day 10 storm is a beaut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I find myself totally agreeing with your all of your posts lately. The meso scale features are going to move around, but the euro keeps hope alive that someone can score a nice event. Probably moving away from the likelihood of a forum wide significant event though. Too much noise to really get an organized system going. that could change but were trending the wrong way here. With the GGEM and GFS going a bit north seeing something south along with the UK was nice. Keeps hope alive 06z GFS para was ridic in its own handling of the norlun/inverted trough in the sense that it pounded the DC metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Passing the time at work, but am I right or wrong that this is a good h5 map for us on the hr 87 of the 15z SREFs? I know its like posting the h5 of the NAM at hr 84, but yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I imagine DT might be woofing later today....especially since it would be a birthday storm for him RUT ROH RAGGY Someone needs to start a President's Day 2016 storm thread asap ! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Someone needs to start a President's Day 2016 storm thread asap ! ;-) Hasn't worked for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Hasn't worked for this storm 4 days for that yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The 00z Para EURO also has a massive 50/50 and a storm in central US @ 240....Massive HP sprawling the northern tier of the country on both the 12z EURO and 00z EURO PAR I know, it is far out there, but I'm always keeping one eye out in the distance. Really, really good setup IF the 50/50 is legit can you talk about LR stuff in the actual LR thread? This is just the 8/9th threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Jma lpols good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Jma lpols good OK...but how does it look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAM 18z further west with the first wave again. Today's storm trended west up to the last second, this next one may do the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Euro ens are just a splattering of variations of the op. Narrow qpf max. Warn level event seeming very unlikely except for a localized area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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