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Feb 7-10th stalled out/meandering low pressure system potential.


dmc76

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Man what a tough forecast. EC forecast going with complete rain here today. NAM/RGEM seem to have trended in that direction well. If it does stay mostly liquid it'll be by a razor thin margin. Let the fun begin...37 and -RA. Temps been slowly dropping.

 

Yeah accumulations have been trending down here as well, BUFKIT now showing less than 3" snow from the latest NAM, would guess it'll probably be closer to 2".

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Well, to my peeps back home in Toronto who may have become a little distraught after seeing the models trend west with this band...you ain't missing much. Dreary, miserable, cold rain. Have yet to see a flake. 

 

Still think a 2-4" range is good for you guys...there are going to be lollis but too localized to try and pin down where.

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Weirdest system to date with the looks of the clown maps for MBY and SE Michigan. All of a sudden the promising sucker hole has the lollipop award..... Given the WRF maps above hold true. With the temps of the last few days the surface temps will be eating away at most snow totals.

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ARW showing a crazy squall off the west end of Lake Ontario slamming the Burlington area with 25+cm...

wrf-arw_ref_frzn_neus_37.pngwrf-arw_asnow_neus_48.png

 

The whole lakeshore from Burlington to Toronto does well on that model. RGEM has been hinting at something similar too. I'm in pure nowcast mode with this storm. Models have bounced around too much to be useful.

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