snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 So...party at your house?? Inside with 3-4"/hr rates? Not a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Inside with 3-4"/hr rates? Not a chance. If it comes to fruition I'll definitely have to visit London later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 If they get 3" and change it'll be the winter's biggest snowfall. I think that's the benchmark to aim for. This winter 6" is snowmaggedon. Too greedy. EURO has the low too far north it looks like. --- 3.1" in my grid forecast. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Lock and load please!!! :weenie: :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gotta say, between the fronto band tomorrow and the LES deathband potential on Thursday, this is looking like a pretty sweet week for London. Canuck what are you thinking for my neck of the woods? Is 4" a possibility? I'm driving up to Ottawa next Saturday to visit some friends. Looks like I could be driving into the coldest air of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Lock and load please!!! :weenie: :weenie: The results of this meandering L will be very interesting. As buckeye noted, every model run of every model has various lollipops of snow in different areas then the last. I was thinking now that our best snow chance would be Tue-Wed but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Lock and load please!!! :weenie: :weenie: Me and you jackpot. .lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Temp dropping like rock as the cold front moves through. Was 43F last hour IMBY. Down to 38 now. Snow moving in from the north. Should be fun here for a while with the snowfall and high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Some of the models have a weird mesoscale weenie band close by Monday night here. NAM produces like 8" with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Winds are gusting up in to the 50 mph range in eastern SD now and western MN. Front is going to come through like a freight train later. 18z NAM shifting the bulls eye back east along Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 WOW there is a good chance that Southeast Michigan and specially around Detroit has zero chance of picking up any snow this week. DTX even likes the chances of snow staying out of the area in all directions. My point click has 30-50% chance of rain and snow showers through Wednesday with little to no accumulation. I would have thought for sure in this setup we would at least pick up a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Canuck what are you thinking for my neck of the woods? Is 4" a possibility? I'm driving up to Ottawa next Saturday to visit some friends. Looks like I could be driving into the coldest air of the season! It's a possibility...but I'd say that's towards the high end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 WOW there is a good chance that Southeast Michigan and specially around Detroit has zero chance of picking up any snow this week. DTX even likes the chances of snow staying out of the area in all directions. My point click has 30-50% chance of rain and snow showers through Wednesday with little to no accumulation. I would have thought for sure in this setup we would at least pick up a couple inches.My skepticism is looking to be spot on, these garbage lows never work out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 My skepticism is looking to be spot on, these garbage lows never work out here. We pick up 0.5" kind of snows in far worse setups. I wouldn't completely write it off. I still think 1-3" total through Wed is a good play. No one knows exactly what this "L" will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 If the snow is convective in nature, which looks to be the case at times, then some lucky areas might receive a good dosing of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 If the snow is convective in nature, which looks to be the case at times, then some lucky area might receive a good dosing of snow. Good point. The potential for even upright convection looks pretty good under this setup (see impressive mid-level and low-level lapse rates on the NAM and GFS). But as always, that's only part of the equation. It's getting the convective snow bands to remain stationary long enough over a certain area and then pinpointing where they remain stationary (if they do) that casts doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 If the snow is convective in nature, which looks to be the case at times, then some lucky area might receive a good dosing of snow. That analog I threw up yesterday from a stalled out low Dec 4-7th 1997 did that exact same thing. Lots of places picked up few inches outside of your traditional belts. I see it the same way this time around. It's anybody's guess where though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The 18z RGEM shows something similar to the 12z WRF-NMM, except over Ann Arbor vs. Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 My skepticism is looking to be spot on, these garbage lows never work out here. Obviously it's not the case, but as a kid being continuously exposed to the anti-snow general public, I assumed Detroit was strategically settled where it was due to its lack of snow compared to the rest of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 15z SREF mean jumped for YYZ...now 4.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's a possibility...but I'd say that's towards the high end. I'll go with 2" for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 RGEM favoring northern and central OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If the snow is convective in nature, which looks to be the case at times, then some lucky areas might receive a good dosing of snow. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If the snow is convective in nature, which looks to be the case at times, then some lucky areas might receive a good dosing of snow. Bingo. My prediction is Gaylord, West of Marquette, Howell Michigan, and Racine, Wisconsin will get the most snow. Can't go wrong there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Obviously it's not the case, but as a kid being continuously exposed to the anti-snow general public, I assumed Detroit was strategically settled where it was due to its lack of snow compared to the rest of the state.Lol I never thought of that..I just figured we sucked for LES (we seem to get more LES than we used to). Detroit is obviously the least snowy part of the state, but is a snowy location to a majority of out of towners. It's all what you are used to. When the least snowy part of your state averages 40"+, truly one of the best states for winter (usually). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 My prediction is Gaylord, West of Marquette, Howell Michigan, and Racine, Wisconsin will get the most snow. Can't go wrong there... There has been some runs of the NAM that show a meso low getting very close to the coast here. Racine could be one of those places hit. Going to be a watch the radar kind of event. --- On the Detroit settlement topic. I would imagine the location between two Great Lakes was a factor. Back in the settlement era, more snow meant a harder way of living. But on Josh's point - MI is one of the most wintry states in the lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That doughnut hole which has been advertised since the 300hr forecast of the system for SE Michigan will be one of those 90 % certainties. Got to give credit where credit is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 0Z NAM puts the 6" weenie band right over my house in Westerville. Why not?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 There has been some runs of the NAM that show a meso low getting very close to the coast here. Racine could be one of those places hit. Going to be a watch the radar kind of event. --- On the Detroit settlement topic. I would imagine the location between two Great Lakes was a factor. Back in the settlement era, more snow meant a harder way of living. But on Josh's point - MI is one of the most wintry states in the lower 48. Oh, definitely... the snow factor was purely for jokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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