blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 So less snow now? Its has always been a marginal setup. The trend lately(with this and previous systems) has been to bring EC systems closer in to the coast. Globals can have a tough time resolving these shifts when compared to the higher res guidance(with better convective schemes). If a further west track occurs, it will focus the +rates west of the GTA. If the clipper tracks too far north, we get slotted. The clipper will need to be in the perfect position for us to cash in. This is what the 12z EC/GEM show but is it likely? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Its has always been a marginal setup. The trend lately(with this and previous systems) has been to bring EC systems closer in to the coast. Globals can have a tough time resolving these shifts when compared to the higher res guidance(with better convective schemes). If a further west track occurs, it will focus the +rates west of the GTA. If the clipper tracks too far north, we get slotted. The clipper will need to be in the perfect position for us to cash in. This is what the 12z EC/GEM show but is it likely? No. Well winter 15-16 goes on...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Lucy strikes again ! This winter season is not for the faint of heart, my theory is to sit back and watch all of the crash and burns.When it comes to winter weather this season it is as illusive as the Black Rhino. Researchers fear it is extinct..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Well winter 15-16 goes on...... This is the epitome of thread the needle. Can't really get too disappointed if it doesn't pan out. 18z GFS with a healthy increase in QPF. Widespread 0.70-1.00" across the city with a bullseye to the west along the escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Analog Dec 4-7th 1997. 3 to 7" fell in semi for this event. Around 6" fell around my house. Remember this event very well. Sit n' spin https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/timemachine/#3.199712040700 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Big improvement for the Toronto area on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Big improvement for the Toronto area on the 18z GFS gfssnow.jpg But is it believable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The Canadian folks are gonna luck out nicely it seems, we could from the LES but I have my doubts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 But is it believable? It's plausible. That's about as far as I'll go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It's plausible. That's about as far as I'll go. Is the western end looking better than the east end of the gta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Good luck to the Toronto folks. Be nice to see a good hit there. First/last call for here 0.1-0.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Is the western end looking better than the east end of the gta? As of right now, yeah, but 12hrs ago it looked like Markham and Oshawa would do better. So don't get too wrapped up in this. Go enjoy your Saturday evening and we'll see what the 0z runs bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Good luck to the Toronto folks. Be nice to see a good hit there. First/last call for here 0.1-0.9". You'll probably do the same as Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 0z runs kind of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GEM looking solid for Guelph - Cambridge - Brantford area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Anyone else notice the change with the 12km/4km NAM on the TT site the past few days? The rain/snow radar simulation went from way too underdone to way overdone with the new change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Anyone else notice the change with the 12km/4km NAM on the TT site the past few days? The rain/snow radar simulation went from way too underdone to way overdone with the new change. Yes I noticed that too. I think it is now a composite simulation so not intended to show surface conditions. So basically you think you are getting hours of light snow which might be worth something but when you check accumulations it turns out it is a bunch of virga. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 3z SREF mean for YYZ is just over 3" of snow. I'll go with 2-4" as my updated call. Missing out on that PVA/frontogenesis band I think will preclude this from being a bigger event. Not a high confidence call though. Lotta moving parts with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Spinning upper level lows around the lakes as arctic air feeds slowly in always good for some surprises. LOT going 2-4 over a 48 hr. period. Could be looking at the wintriest week of this El Niño driven winter. For awhile, I'll know it's early February again...if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 1-2" snow tonight into tomorrow with gusts of 45mph or higher. Blizzard warning, winter storm warning and WWA for almost all of MN. Too bad the warm temps yesterday really turned the 12" of powder into a wet mess. This could have a lot more interesting around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gotta say, between the fronto band tomorrow and the LES deathband potential on Thursday, this is looking like a pretty sweet week for London. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gotta say, between the fronto band tomorrow and the LES deathband potential on Thursday, this is looking like a pretty sweet week for London. Are you at UWO? Very good chance I'll be there next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 DVN point has < 1/2" for tonight, and the same for tomorrow. 0.1-0.9" call looking golden. With the convective nature of the snow showers I wouldn't be surprised to see some higher amounts here and there. However, the timing for this area will not be good, as the best parameters pass through after midnight and are out of here by mid morning tomorrow. Would have been nice to see this swing through about 9hrs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 this is such an odd look over a lot of the sub. Almost all the models have a couple of jackpots of 4"+ amounts, but they are never in the same spot from run to run. It'll be interesting to see what ends up realizing on this one. ILN is going with a couple inches for CMH area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Anyone else notice the change with the 12km/4km NAM on the TT site the past few days? The rain/snow radar simulation went from way too underdone to way overdone with the new change. Yeah I saw the NAM had like 48 hours worth of light snow and only two inches to show for it at Hour 84. I'm liking a 1.5-2.5" call here. GGEM showing a heavier band just to the west of Milwaukee. For some reason not as much closer to the lake. Still hoping Toronto pulls off a 6"/15cm snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z GFS Toledo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Are you at UWO? Very good chance I'll be there next year. Yep. I'll be there in the fall of '16 to wrap up my degree. 1st beer's on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah I saw the NAM had like 48 hours worth of light snow and only two inches to show for it at Hour 84. I'm liking a 1.5-2.5" call here. GGEM showing a heavier band just to the west of Milwaukee. For some reason not as much closer to the lake. Still hoping Toronto pulls off a 6"/15cm snowfall. If they get 3" and change it'll be the winter's biggest snowfall. I think that's the benchmark to aim for. This winter 6" is snowmaggedon. Too greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 If they get 3" and change it'll be the winter's biggest snowfall. I think that's the benchmark to aim for. This winter 6" is snowmaggedon. Too greedy. you know all we need is about 3" officially at CMH for it to be our big daddy this winter. This might be our best shot till 2016/2017 woot woot!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gotta say, between the fronto band tomorrow and the LES deathband potential on Thursday, this is looking like a pretty sweet week for London. So...party at your house?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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